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According to official news, the prediction market Polymarket announced a significant adjustment to its settlement mechanism for cryptocurrency price fluctuation markets starting from August 7, to protect market integrity. From midnight UTC on that day, the affected markets will no longer settle based on a single price snapshot at a specific time but will instead use a time-weighted average price.Markets of different durations correspond to different TWAP windows: all cryptocurrency 5-minute markets will use a 30-second TWAP, 15-minute markets will use a 60-second TWAP, and 4-hour markets will also use a 60-second TWAP. The previous single snapshot settlement method was prone to price manipulation during periods of low liquidity, and this change is a proactive reinforcement of the market integrity system by Polymarket after facing regulatory scrutiny.To support this transition, Polymarket will inject $1 million in liquidity rewards into all affected markets throughout August. On the technical side, Chainlink TWAP testnet data streams are now available, and mainnet data streams along with Polymarket real-time data stream services will go live on August 4, at which point developers can access TWAP prices directly through Chainlink Data Streams or Polymarket's public WebSocket.

According to Fortune, the prediction market platform Polymarket has established the Polymarket Institute, a new organization dedicated to researching prediction market information discovery and forecasting mechanisms, fully funded by Polymarket but without disclosing the specific amount.The institute will set up a "Scientific Scholarship" program to fund doctoral researchers conducting research in related fields, initially recruiting 12 researchers, each of whom will receive a one-time grant of $10,000. To ensure research independence, researchers are prohibited from trading on platforms like Polymarket during their tenure and retain the unconditional right to publish any research findings (even if unfavorable to Polymarket). The funding will adopt a university donation model rather than commissioned research to avoid Polymarket having editorial influence over the results.Polymarket's Chief Data Officer Kai Brusch will serve as the Managing Director of the institute, and Carnegie Mellon University Assistant Professor of Economics and Technology Brian Jabarian will serve as the Scientific Director. To avoid conflicts of interest, Jabarian will not receive personal compensation for this role.

According to reports from China News Service, multiple South Korean media outlets believe that the recent sharp decline in the stock market is interpreted as a shock from the listing of China's largest semiconductor company, Changxin Technology. The market is worried that Changxin Technology will use the funds raised from its stock market listing to catch up with semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and this concern has spread, leading to a setback in investor sentiment.According to a previous report by CNBC, Z-Ben Advisors analyst Peter Alexander believes that, referencing the development paths of the steel and new energy vehicle industries, Changxin Technology will quickly seize market share in the low-end memory chip market and ultimately shake the monopoly positions of Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology in the global memory industry.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "Ethereum will reach price in July" prediction market, the probability of ETH reaching $2000 is 26%, down 46% in 24 hours; the probability of dropping to $1800 is currently reported at 43%, up 28% in 24 hours. According to the rules of this prediction market, the relevant results are determined based on the highest price of the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair's 1-minute K-line.Yesterday, ETH once surged to $1981, less than 1% away from the $2000 mark, but then quickly fell back and has now dropped below $1900.

According to CoinDesk, U.S. District Court Judge Katherine Menendez in Minnesota ruled that the state law classifying the operation of prediction markets as a criminal offense likely violates the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), and granted a preliminary injunction to Kalshi, Polymarket, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), suspending the enforcement of the state law.The judge found that prediction market contracts structurally fall under the category of "swap" products regulated by the CFTC, and that federal law takes precedence over state law, with the three plaintiffs "likely to prevail in a formal trial." Additionally, the judge noted that failing to suspend the enforcement of the law would cause "irreparable harm" to Kalshi and Polymarket. This preliminary injunction will remain in effect until a final judgment is made in the case.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket's SpaceX Starship conducting its 13th test flight on July 24 has risen to 77%, up 16% in 24 hours; the probability for the 13th test flight on July 25 has risen to 83%, up 35% in 24 hours.SpaceX previously announced that due to weather reasons, the 13th test flight of the SpaceX Starship was postponed to July 24, but it is still uncertain whether the weather reasons still exist. SpaceX attempted the first test flight of the Starship on July 17, but due to some Raptor engines failing to start as expected, the automatic launch abort procedure was triggered, resulting in the failure of the first test flight. It is reported that SpaceX is currently fully "betting" on the Starship and has begun to refuse commercial Falcon rocket launch orders after 2028.

The PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of "the next Claude Opus model being released on July 23, 2026" on Polymarket is currently reported at 61%, up 51% in the last 24 hours. In addition, the probability of "being released before July 24" is currently reported at 9%; the probability of "being released before July 25" is currently reported at 5%.This event will settle based on the date (Eastern Time) when Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made publicly available. Only models explicitly named "Opus" by Anthropic are valid, and they must be open to the public (including public testing or open waiting lists). Other models such as Sonnet and Haiku are not included, and the final settlement will primarily rely on official information from Anthropic.

According to a report by Reuters, the prediction market platform Polymarket issued a statement that it will challenge the decision of the French National Gaming Authority (ANJ) to block its website through legal proceedings.Last week, the ANJ ordered French internet service providers to block Polymarket on the grounds that the platform could lead to significant betting losses for users and that some bets were at risk of being manipulated. Polymarket expressed disappointment at ANJ's sudden decision.

The Polygon Foundation posted on the X platform that the Ithaca hard fork has been successfully deployed on the Amoy testnet and will go live on the Polygon mainnet at block height 50,185,000 (expected at 22:00 Beijing time on July 29).This upgrade aims to enhance payment reliability: automatic failover during rare stalls of block producers ensures smooth transactions, new protective mechanisms intercept transactions that may cause the network to slow down or become unstable, while providing node operators with clearer visibility to ensure seamless integration of underlying operations. All node operators are required to upgrade as soon as possible to ensure compatibility and network security.

According to data from The Block, in the days leading up to the World Cup final, the total open interest (OI) of Kalshi and Polymarket combined has decreased by 20% from a peak of about $2 billion in early July. When smoothed weekly, the total OI rose from about $1.2 billion at the end of May to nearly $1.8 billion in the week of July 5, before falling back to about $1.5 billion in the week of July 19.The decline in trading volume was even more severe: Kalshi's sports trading volume dropped from a peak of about $9 billion in the week of July 5 to about $4 billion (a decrease of about 55%), while Polymarket fell from about $2.3 billion to $740 million (a decrease of nearly 70%). During the event, sports-related trading accounted for about 80% of the total trading volume on both platforms. On July 19, Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 to win the World Cup.According to statistics from DeFiOasis, approximately 194,000 addresses participated in Polymarket's World Cup champion market trading, of which about two-thirds incurred losses, with 54 addresses making over $100,000 (including 5 over $1 million), and 43 addresses losing over $100,000. It is expected that the activity in the prediction market will remain low until the next major catalytic event (the U.S. midterm elections in the fall).

The 2026 World Cup has concluded, and Gate Prediction Market's World Cup section has simultaneously completed its event cycle services. As a one-stop prediction experience portal built around the World Cup, during this event, Gate Prediction Market recorded a total participation of 501,190 users, with a total trading volume exceeding 528 million USD and a total of 2,630,280 transactions, continuously demonstrating user engagement in the sports event prediction scenario. According to data from Polymarket Builders, Gate Prediction Market's trading performance continues to lead, with a single-day trading volume on July 19 ranking first in the Polymarket channel, and the cumulative trading volume for the past week and this month also ranking first in the Polymarket channel.Gate continues to expand its sports prediction scenarios, launching the "E-sports Peak Trading Season" event from July 20, 16:00 to August 10, 16:00 (UTC+8), with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT. During the event, users can sign up and participate in designated event prediction trading in the Gate Polymarket e-sports section to enjoy newcomer benefits, weekly trading tasks, and prediction trading leaderboards, sharing in generous rewards.As the first centralized trading platform to integrate with Polymarket, Gate has become an important entry point for users to participate in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the homepage Alpha section, and conveniently participate in various event predictions using USDT in their accounts. Users can also utilize the "Smart Money" feature to track high-win-rate traders' positions and market judgments, gaining more reference for event predictions. Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of the prediction market, providing users with a diversified experience from event judgment to trading participation.

According to Bloomberg, as prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi expand, the issue of betting using non-public information or informational advantages is receiving more scrutiny. Bloomberg Businessweek analyzed approximately 34,000 potential insider trading cases flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026; these related trades exhibited characteristics such as newly created accounts, low probability entries, large bets, or high trading concentration, but it cannot be determined that traders violated rules based on this.Data shows that from January 1 to June 30 of this year, the amount of suspicious trades flagged on Polymarket was approximately $200 million, with geopolitical and war-related markets driving a significant increase in abnormal trading volume. The profits from potential insider trading are highly concentrated, with the top 1% of accounts in profit wallets earning more than half of the gains, and 57% of related wallets created less than 24 hours before the trades. Some traders are reducing the likelihood of being discovered by using multiple associated wallets and splitting orders. For example, 38 associated addresses placed bets in 90 geopolitical markets related to Iran and Venezuela, achieving a win rate of 98%, with total profits of $1.6 million, and withdrew funds using the same Coinbase deposit address.Polymarket stated that it will monitor insider trading and other illegal activities, and has so far referred nearly 100 wallets to law enforcement agencies. Kalshi has also strengthened identity and employment information checks, and restricted participation in related markets by political candidates, athletes, and others who may influence outcomes.

According to U.Today's latest in-depth report, as the prediction market continues to heat up, sports events are becoming an important engine driving industry growth. As the world's first centralized trading platform integrated with Polymarket, Gate Polymarket significantly lowers the user participation threshold through a wallet-free, cross-chain-free, and gas-free trading experience. Users can directly participate in predictions using USDT in their Gate accounts without complex on-chain operations.Currently, Gate Polymarket has become one of the largest traffic entrances for Polymarket, with a cumulative trading volume exceeding $622 million as of July 16, and a weekly trading volume surpassing $100 million on July 6, ranking first in daily, weekly, and monthly trading volumes across all channels of Polymarket.The report points out that the 2026 World Cup has become one of the important catalysts for the rapid growth of the prediction market. The World Cup Hub, built around the World Cup, integrates event schedules, leaderboards, real-time scores, match reminders, historical data, and prediction trading, continuously attracting a large number of users to participate in sports predictions, further enhancing the activity and market liquidity of Gate Polymarket.U.Today believes that Gate not only lowers the usage threshold of the prediction market but also further improves the product experience by launching innovative features such as a dual-mode trading interface, AI event analysis, smart money fund tracking, real-time capital flow reminders, and event contracts, helping users discover market opportunities more efficiently. Relying on the convenient experience of a centralized trading platform and the deep integration with Polymarket's decentralized prediction market, Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of the prediction market, promoting the on-chain prediction market towards a more open, efficient, and popular development stage.

According to market news, Goldman Sachs reported on July 18 that the Dark Side of the Moon released the Kimi K3 model, with 28 trillion parameters, surpassing Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol on the Arena.ai programming leaderboard, reaching a new high for Chinese models with an API pricing of $2.3 per million tokens. Two days after the release, Zhiyu fell by 28%, MiniMax dropped by 16%, the Nasdaq 100 index futures fell by more than 1.8%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has cumulatively dropped by more than 18% from its peak.Goldman Sachs believes that Kimi K3 marks a turning point: a Chinese laboratory that cannot match the largest pre-trained computing power in the West has rapidly narrowed the gap with top American models through architectural innovation and reinforcement learning, proving that "scaling" is no longer the only winning path. Goldman Sachs warns that the "era of computing power expansion" may be coming to an end, and the investment logic for AI infrastructure built around "the more computing power, the better" needs to be rewritten. Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating on MiniMax and a neutral rating on Zhiyu. Future attention will focus on the intensive release of 20-50 trillion parameter models such as Zhiyu GLM, Alibaba Qwen, and MiniMax M3 Pro.

According to on-chain detective Specter, an unknown entity withdrew 31 BTC from Wasabi Mixer a few minutes ago, worth 1.98 million dollars, and then cross-chained the funds to Ethereum, exchanging them for 1059 ETH.The wallet then created a new Polymarket account named "yamal19" and deposited the funds into the platform. As of now, the account has purchased YES shares worth 1.16 million dollars on "Spain will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup."

David Sacks, Chairman of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, stated on the X platform that using regulatory uncertainty as a competitive tool is "completely unacceptable." Regulatory decisions should be based on facts, logic, and evidence, rather than deliberately creating fear and uncertainty (FUD). He is unsure whether venture capitalist and AI policy researcher Dean Ball is acknowledging a strategy of "regulatory capture" or merely predicting that such a situation will occur. However, in any case, the practice of issuing "soft law" warnings through regulatory agencies to create market panic, thereby forcing regulated companies away from Chinese open-source models, should not be accepted.David Sacks pointed out that Dean Ball believes there is no need to directly ban Chinese open-source models; it is sufficient to guide regulatory agencies to issue relevant warnings, which can influence corporate decision-making by creating enough doubt and uncertainty, and these reasons "do not even need to be very substantial." Any regulatory decision must have sufficient basis, rather than implementing policies by "artificially creating doubt." He warned that this practice of circumventing public deliberation procedures not only undermines the foundation of the rule of law but may also open the door to regulatory abuse against any company or individual in the future.David Sacks further stated that current AI policy is at a critical turning point. Leading closed-source laboratories, which have already formed a duopoly in AI model revenue, are attempting to use government power to eliminate open-source competitors. He called on other companies and developers in Silicon Valley that still support open competition to make clear statements to jointly maintain an open ecosystem in the field of AI.

According to a report by Reuters, the French National Gaming Authority (ANJ) has stated that it has requested French internet service providers to block the prediction market platform Polymarket, citing that it promotes illegal betting services, which may lead to significant losses for users, and that some bets may be subject to manipulation risks.Polymarket will remain blocked until it complies with French betting regulations.

Polygon CEO Marc Boiron stated on the X platform that the company is in the final stages of completing the acquisition of Coinme, and will subsequently integrate the relevant teams into Polygon Labs. As part of achieving the profitability goal for 2027, the company has initiated layoffs and is advancing broader mergers and organizational adjustments.Marc Boiron mentioned that Polygon Labs is transitioning from a blockchain foundation-type organization to a blockchain payment company, with the relevant adjustments primarily focusing on organizational structure and talent needs. He also stated that the company's current revenue performance is strong, with stablecoin business volume continuously breaking records, and that compensation and support will be provided to affected employees.

Polygon Foundation CEO Sandeep disclosed that about one-third of the Polygon team paused their daily work last week to participate in a three-day internal AI innovation challenge, with a total reward pool of $15,000 set up by the team.During the three days, 13 projects were produced, of which 6 have officially launched, and 1 has completed real transaction settlement on 5 mainnet chains. Sandeep stated that for the payment sector, the landscape of the next decade will be dominated by teams that truly integrate AI into their daily workflows, and he expressed that this experiment has given him more confidence in the team.

According to Bloomberg, researchers at Stanford University have found signs of manipulation in the Polymarket five-minute Bitcoin betting market. The study analyzed contract data over approximately two months and discovered repeated one-way trading pulses on the Binance exchange that briefly affected Bitcoin prices just seconds before the betting ended, benefiting those with aligned positions. The researchers referred to this pattern as "temporary manipulation to drive up spot prices" and pointed out that such contracts have structural vulnerabilities—participants can influence the outcome by trading the underlying asset itself that determines win or loss.A Polymarket spokesperson stated that the platform uses multiple independent price oracles to ensure accuracy and plans to transition some markets to a settlement method using longer time windows next year to enhance market integrity. The study estimates that suspected manipulators profited about $8.2 million over two months, primarily from losses incurred by retail traders. Similar patterns are not evident in the 15-minute market, where longer time windows make it more difficult to influence outcomes.