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Goldman Sachs: Semiconductor exposure explains about 54% of the earnings difference, while oil prices account for only 2%

Goldman Sachs' latest research shows that over the past three weeks, semiconductor stock exposure has been able to explain about 54% of the return performance differences between different asset classes, while oil price exposure accounts for only 2%. As the influence of AI trading continues to expand, technology stocks are becoming an important factor driving global market risk appetite and asset performance differentiation.Goldman Sachs pointed out that recent investor risk appetite has been highly synchronized with the relative performance of large technology stocks. Last week, concerns about AI investment returns, financing costs, and capital expenditures intensified, leading to a sell-off in technology stocks and corporate bonds, with Goldman Sachs' risk appetite indicator falling to its lowest level since April 2025. The South Korean stock market has become a typical case of this impact, with the KOSPI rising 3.1% on Tuesday, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics increasing by 5.2% and 4.2%, respectively.Due to the high weight of semiconductor stocks in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, changes in global AI investment expectations directly affect local market performance. Goldman Sachs emphasized that the 54% and 2% figures reflect a statistical relationship within a specific time window and do not imply that AI factors long-term determine global market fluctuations; the impact of high oil prices on inflation, monetary policy, and asset pricing cannot be ignored. Major technology companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are about to announce their earnings reports, and the market will focus on whether AI demand can continue to grow and whether massive capital expenditures can be converted into actual profits.

first_img Tom Wan: Robinhood Chain first quarter transaction fees 51.1 million USD

Tom Wan, the data director at Entropy Advisors, stated that the transaction fees for Robinhood Chain will be included in the third quarter financial report to be released tomorrow. He mentioned that the transaction fees for the first quarter of this chain amounted to 51.1 million USD, which is about half of Robinhood's second quarter cryptocurrency trading revenue, and he is paying attention to whether the company will describe this chain as infrastructure for other businesses or as an independent source of income.Tom Wan noted that the average daily transaction fees in October have dropped to about 52,000 USD, with the decline primarily due to pricing. The increase in fees in late August was attributed to gas congestion, with the average transaction fee rising from 0.002 USD to 0.298 USD, and weekly trading volume increasing by 7.5%. On September 1 and September 3, Robinhood raised the gas target from 18 million per second to 40 million, and gas prices have returned to the lower limit of 0.02 gwei.He also mentioned that by the end of the third quarter, USDG on Robinhood Chain was 693 million USD, compared to 101 million USD on July 1; estimating based on a roughly 3.5% share and an average scale of 427 million USD for the third quarter, the quarter's revenue was about 3.8 million USD, which annualizes to about 24 million USD based on the current scale of 674 million USD. There are 195,000 stock token holders, and last week the DEX trading volume was about 700 million USD. In the second quarter, the cryptocurrency trading volumes for Bitstamp and the Robinhood App were 22.1 billion USD and 18.3 billion USD, respectively, and he stated that there is currently no public data indicating how much of that is related to this chain.

Goldman Sachs: Global technology stocks had a net sell-off of 20 billion USD in two weeks

According to Goldman Sachs data, in the past two weeks, global technology stocks have experienced a net sell-off of approximately $20 billion, with the intensity of the sell-off reaching an extreme level of -3.3 standard deviations. The sell-off scale in the TMT sector is close to the $23 billion seen in July of this year. Meanwhile, the volatility spread between the Nasdaq 100 Index and the S&P 500 Index has risen to the 98th percentile of the past five years, indicating a significant increase in market demand for hedging against technology stocks.According to JPMorgan, the scale of debt financing for AI infrastructure has exceeded $500 billion this year, with the financing costs for large-scale cloud service providers rising by about 120 basis points compared to before. As Google, Microsoft, and Amazon release their earnings reports this week, the market will focus on whether AI capital expenditures can be converted into actual revenue, as well as the sustainability of financing for subsequent investment expansions.JPMorgan believes that the financing relationship between Nvidia and GPU operators may become a channel for credit risk transmission. If operator financing tightens, pressure may spread upstream along the supply chain. The bank maintains a constructive view on the fundamentals of the technology sector, believing that a buying window may appear in early November, but it is still necessary to observe signals such as further market position clearing, corporate earnings realization, and credit spread narrowing.
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