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Today, Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang analyzes the latest Fed interest rate decision and market trends. He pointed out that although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the 3 dissenting votes supporting a rate hike indicate a strengthening of internal hawkish forces. Coupled with sticky inflation and geopolitical risks, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in September have risen to 72%, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher and further suppressing U.S. stock valuations.Combining technical analysis and practical operations, Lewis Huang stated that as rate hike expectations ferment, technology stocks and overall market valuations face significant pressure, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices showing clear bearish signals; on the other hand, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain strong under hawkish support, while oil shows resilience supported by geopolitical situations.He suggests that CFD traders should align with the macro theme of "tightening expectations" at this stage, closely monitor the upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting guidance, and flexibly seize both long and short trading opportunities, such as shorting indices at high levels and going long on the dollar in forex.

According to Gate market data, U.S. stocks opened higher, with all three major indexes rising: the Dow Jones increased by 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose by 1%, and the Nasdaq climbed by 1.6%. Microsoft (MSFT.O) surged about 12%, with its cloud business growth in the fourth fiscal quarter far exceeding expectations.The storage sector saw significant gains, with SanDisk (SNDK.O) rising about 11% and SK Hynix (SKHY.O) increasing by about 7%.

According to Jinshi reports, market sources say that Ukrainian drones attacked the grain export terminal in Russia's Taman Port, causing significant damage.

According to Jinshi reports, as the demand for AI computing power surges, the global storage chip market is facing a severe supply shortage. In Huaqiangbei, Shenzhen, affected by Nvidia's new round of price increase notifications, graphics card manufacturers have completely stopped bulk shipments, and the supply of spot goods has rapidly tightened.Statistics show that the prices of mainstream storage products and graphics cards continue to rise, with the price of a 1TB solid-state drive increasing from 410 yuan last September to 950 yuan, a rise of 132%; the price of 16G DDR5 memory has increased by 311%; the price of the RTX 5060 graphics card has risen by about 30%, and the price of the RTX 5080 has risen by about 50%.

According to reporter Eleanor Terrett, Binance.US CEO Stevie Satoshi revealed at the RareEvo conference that the company plans to apply for Designated Contract Market (DCM) status with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) next month, aiming to provide users with prediction market services.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until September is 36.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 63.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 0% (before the Federal Reserve's decision, these were 17.8%, 60.2%, and 22% respectively).By October, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 26.2%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 55.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 18.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 75 basis points is 0% (before the Federal Reserve's decision, these were 11.9%, 46.1%, 34.7%, and 7.3% respectively).

Bitcoin News posted on the X platform that New Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte has signed HB 639 into law to strengthen legal protections for Bitcoin and digital assets.The law protects self-custody rights, prohibits state and local governments from restricting the use of blockchain, prohibits the imposition of special taxes on cryptocurrency purchases, exempts miners from currency transfer licensing requirements, and establishes specialized court dockets for blockchain disputes. This measure further consolidates legal certainty for Bitcoin users, miners, and the broader digital asset industry.

Circle's Senior Director of Strategy and Policy for the EU, Patrick Hansen, pointed out that since the implementation of the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), approximately 35 electronic money tokens (EMT) from 21 institutions have obtained compliance certification, with banks and electronic money institutions entering the market, showing a good momentum for local issuance.However, among the top 50 stablecoins globally, currently only USDC, USDG, and EURC meet MiCA requirements, while the rest remain outside the regulatory framework, leaving EU users facing a dual dilemma of lack of protection or being forced to cut off access. Hansen believes that for MiCA to truly become a global regulatory blueprint, it must achieve two goals simultaneously: first, to promote local EMTs to go global with competitive systems; second, to establish a recognition mechanism for compliant stablecoins from abroad, attracting global issuers into the MiCA regulatory framework, rather than making local issuance the only entry path.

According to Jinshi reports, DHF Capital S.A. economist Bas Kooijman stated in a report that the trend of oil prices has become a key driving factor for U.S. Treasury yields and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. The outlook may change with the evolution of the situation in the Middle East and oil prices.A further sustained decline in oil prices may intensify the pressure of slowing inflation and suppress expectations for monetary policy tightening, while a renewed escalation of the situation may reignite inflation concerns and push up U.S. Treasury yields.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin funding rate is showing typical signals before the significant increases in September 2024 and December 2022, indicating that pessimism may have recently peaked.From March to May, Bitcoin corrected over 50%, and the accumulation of short positions pushed the funding rate down to negative values. Subsequently, BTC rebounded to $82,000 in May. This signal has appeared again, potentially leaving room for a bullish reconstruction in the coming months. This indicator has been transformed into a monthly sentiment aggregation tool, which is more effective than the Fear and Greed Index.

According to CoinDesk, analysts say that if the Federal Reserve releases any dovish signals, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin. There is significant divergence in the market regarding whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday—CME FedWatch data shows a 70% probability of maintaining rates and a 30% probability of an unexpected 25 basis point hike. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman pointed out that the reduction in forward guidance usage by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has led to increased market uncertainty, making this FOMC meeting one of the most uncertain in years.Bitcoin has risen about 6% so far in July, while the S&P 500 has remained flat, and the semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 20%. K33 Research's research director Vetle Lunde stated that the Nasdaq had previously been strong and positions were stretched, with Bitcoin continuing to consolidate near multi-year lows, leading to a weakening correlation between the two. This week's FOMC meeting may have limited impact on BTC. Rahman stated, "Any dovish signals could drive Bitcoin to continue outperforming."

According to the Q3 2026 signal report released by Fidelity Digital Assets, the prices of BTC, ETH, and SOL are generally at historical lows, with multiple indicators close to the capitulation zone. Fidelity believes that the current valuation levels may correspond to attractive long-term entry conditions.As of the end of Q2, the weighted net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) was -0.01, with BTC being the only asset with a positive unrealized profit, approximately 10% above its cost basis, with an unrealized profit of about $108 billion, while ETH and SOL were approximately 30% and 41% below their cost bases, with unrealized losses of about $87 billion and $29 billion, respectively. BTC's market share rose to 68% quarter-over-quarter.The report states that, based on historical backtesting, the current NUPL readings for the three correspond to one-year median returns of 53%, 70%, and 542%, respectively, but the reliability of the samples decreases sequentially. The NUPL reading for SOL has only occurred 21 times in history, concentrated at the end of 2025, which has limited statistical significance.On the fundamental side, the value of stablecoin transfers for both ETH and SOL has reached new highs, exceeding $20 trillion and $2.6 trillion, respectively, over the past 12 months, but network fee revenue continues to decline.Additionally, the report attributes the 22% decline in BTC hash rate from its peak to miners shifting their computing power towards AI and high-performance computing, as AI contract revenues are more stable due to the depressed coin prices.

Aave founder Stani Kulechov posted on X that the CLARITY Act will grant banks the legal authority to use digital assets and distributed ledgers without prior notice or approval, covering custody, staking, and lending, which represents a significant expansion of accessible market space for the crypto industry.Previously, he also stated that the bill is not perfect, and many aspects depend on the subsequent formulation of actual authorization rules, but it is the first regulatory framework to touch on DeFi, creating certainty for institutions, fintech companies, and banks to use on-chain business. He noted that once the CLARITY Act is passed, it will bring favorable conditions and investment for on-chain business similar to what the GENIUS Act has done for stablecoins.

According to X platform blogger @MaxForAI, a screenshot of the DeepSeek Harness internal testing recruitment is circulating on social media. The screenshot shows that the DeepSeek Harness plans to start internal testing later this week, with the first batch of users being selected from small group chats. Selected individuals must submit personal information and sign a "Confidentiality Commitment Letter." The screenshot also specifically reminds that any leaks will result in disqualification and affect future opportunities for selection in the DeepSeek model and product internal testing. If the news is true, the official version of DeepSeek V4 and the Harness product are expected to be launched soon.

According to monitoring by PeckShield, the attacker’s marked address has returned 331.8 ETH, approximately 623,900 USD, to the Across Protocol Hub Pool Owner multi-signature address.

The Bitcoin BIP-110 mandatory signaling window will open at block 961632, expected around August 9, 2026. As of the on-chain height of 959842, there are about 1790 blocks remaining until that block, and the support rate for BIP-110 signaling is approximately 2.64%.BIP-110's formal name is Reduced Data Temporary Softfork, which proposes to limit the size of certain data fields in Bitcoin transactions, mainly targeting Ordinals type inscriptions, large OP_RETURN payloads, and similar high data volume uses. If activated, the restrictions will take effect at block 965664 and will automatically expire after 52416 blocks, approximately one year later.Current signaling support mainly comes from Ocean, independent miners, and small operators, while major mining pools such as Foundry, Antpool, ViaBTC, and F2pool have not yet shifted to support it. Foundry has requested clients to vote based on average hash power; only if "support" votes exceed 51% of the participating weighted hash power will the pool switch all blocks to support signaling. If the current signaling level persists until block 961632, nodes executing BIP-110 will reject blocks that do not emit version bit 4 signals and will follow the minority of blocks that do emit signals. Non-upgraded nodes will continue to accept both signaling and non-signaling blocks and will follow the chain with the highest accumulated proof of work.

According to Jinshi, HSBC economist Paul Mackel stated in a report that unless the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises interest rates, its decision this week may not provide a new catalyst for the dollar to rise.Federal Reserve Chairman Waller acknowledged that inflation is above target and expressed a commitment to price stability. He pointed out that if this week's meeting only aligns with these views, the dollar is unlikely to rise significantly, as the market has already prepared for interest rate hikes later this year.

According to South Korean media Asiae, six leading Silicon Valley venture capital firms, including Sequoia Capital, a16z, Khosla Ventures, Lightspeed Venture Partners, General Catalyst, and NEA, announced the signing of a strategic investment cooperation memorandum (MOU) with the National Pension Service (NPS) of Korea, planning to jointly explore investment opportunities, share investment information, and strengthen global venture capital布局.Furthermore, the South Korean government is accelerating the promotion of policies to attract overseas venture capital, coupled with the launch of the "National Growth Fund," which has a scale of 200 trillion won. The market expects that the Korean venture capital sector will see a simultaneous inflow of policy funds, private capital, and overseas capital, with strategic industries such as AI and semiconductors likely to receive more investment. However, industry insiders warn that if a large amount of capital concentrates on a few popular companies, it may inflate company valuations and create bubbles, potentially facing valuation adjustment pressure during future IPOs and mergers and acquisitions, affecting fund returns.