signal

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin funding rate is showing typical signals before the significant increases in September 2024 and December 2022, indicating that pessimism may have recently peaked.From March to May, Bitcoin corrected over 50%, and the accumulation of short positions pushed the funding rate down to negative values. Subsequently, BTC rebounded to $82,000 in May. This signal has appeared again, potentially leaving room for a bullish reconstruction in the coming months. This indicator has been transformed into a monthly sentiment aggregation tool, which is more effective than the Fear and Greed Index.

According to CoinDesk, analysts say that if the Federal Reserve releases any dovish signals, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin. There is significant divergence in the market regarding whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday—CME FedWatch data shows a 70% probability of maintaining rates and a 30% probability of an unexpected 25 basis point hike. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman pointed out that the reduction in forward guidance usage by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has led to increased market uncertainty, making this FOMC meeting one of the most uncertain in years.Bitcoin has risen about 6% so far in July, while the S&P 500 has remained flat, and the semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 20%. K33 Research's research director Vetle Lunde stated that the Nasdaq had previously been strong and positions were stretched, with Bitcoin continuing to consolidate near multi-year lows, leading to a weakening correlation between the two. This week's FOMC meeting may have limited impact on BTC. Rahman stated, "Any dovish signals could drive Bitcoin to continue outperforming."

According to the Q3 2026 signal report released by Fidelity Digital Assets, the prices of BTC, ETH, and SOL are generally at historical lows, with multiple indicators close to the capitulation zone. Fidelity believes that the current valuation levels may correspond to attractive long-term entry conditions.As of the end of Q2, the weighted net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) was -0.01, with BTC being the only asset with a positive unrealized profit, approximately 10% above its cost basis, with an unrealized profit of about $108 billion, while ETH and SOL were approximately 30% and 41% below their cost bases, with unrealized losses of about $87 billion and $29 billion, respectively. BTC's market share rose to 68% quarter-over-quarter.The report states that, based on historical backtesting, the current NUPL readings for the three correspond to one-year median returns of 53%, 70%, and 542%, respectively, but the reliability of the samples decreases sequentially. The NUPL reading for SOL has only occurred 21 times in history, concentrated at the end of 2025, which has limited statistical significance.On the fundamental side, the value of stablecoin transfers for both ETH and SOL has reached new highs, exceeding $20 trillion and $2.6 trillion, respectively, over the past 12 months, but network fee revenue continues to decline.Additionally, the report attributes the 22% decline in BTC hash rate from its peak to miners shifting their computing power towards AI and high-performance computing, as AI contract revenues are more stable due to the depressed coin prices.

The Bitcoin BIP-110 mandatory signaling window will open at block 961632, expected around August 9, 2026. As of the on-chain height of 959842, there are about 1790 blocks remaining until that block, and the support rate for BIP-110 signaling is approximately 2.64%.BIP-110's formal name is Reduced Data Temporary Softfork, which proposes to limit the size of certain data fields in Bitcoin transactions, mainly targeting Ordinals type inscriptions, large OP_RETURN payloads, and similar high data volume uses. If activated, the restrictions will take effect at block 965664 and will automatically expire after 52416 blocks, approximately one year later.Current signaling support mainly comes from Ocean, independent miners, and small operators, while major mining pools such as Foundry, Antpool, ViaBTC, and F2pool have not yet shifted to support it. Foundry has requested clients to vote based on average hash power; only if "support" votes exceed 51% of the participating weighted hash power will the pool switch all blocks to support signaling. If the current signaling level persists until block 961632, nodes executing BIP-110 will reject blocks that do not emit version bit 4 signals and will follow the minority of blocks that do emit signals. Non-upgraded nodes will continue to accept both signaling and non-signaling blocks and will follow the chain with the highest accumulated proof of work.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on the X platform that the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has dropped to about 0.42, which is approximately four times lower than the historical average of 1.7, indicating that Bitcoin is currently in an undervalued range. However, this indicator has not yet fallen into negative territory, which means that the market has not yet experienced the "capitulation" typically associated with cycle bottoms.Meanwhile, the Bitcoin 7-day realized profit and loss (Realized P/L) has turned positive from negative, currently at about $239 million, showing that on-chain selling pressure has eased. Analysts believe that the market is currently in a phase of undervaluation and short-term stabilization, but there are no signs of capitulation needed to confirm a cycle bottom, nor is there a clear new round of demand-driven momentum.

In response to the shutdown of BitMEX, BitMart, and rumors of several CEXs facing shutdowns, Zhao Changpeng stated, "It's too cruel, I hope this is a bottom signal."

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released the report "Charting Crypto Q3 2026," maintaining a neutral outlook on the crypto market.The report shows that on-chain data indicates Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, but the Fed's hawkish stance, weak spot ETF demand, and geopolitical risks continue to pressure the market outlook.

According to market news, Goldman Sachs reported on July 18 that the Dark Side of the Moon released the Kimi K3 model, with 28 trillion parameters, surpassing Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol on the Arena.ai programming leaderboard, reaching a new high for Chinese models with an API pricing of $2.3 per million tokens. Two days after the release, Zhiyu fell by 28%, MiniMax dropped by 16%, the Nasdaq 100 index futures fell by more than 1.8%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has cumulatively dropped by more than 18% from its peak.Goldman Sachs believes that Kimi K3 marks a turning point: a Chinese laboratory that cannot match the largest pre-trained computing power in the West has rapidly narrowed the gap with top American models through architectural innovation and reinforcement learning, proving that "scaling" is no longer the only winning path. Goldman Sachs warns that the "era of computing power expansion" may be coming to an end, and the investment logic for AI infrastructure built around "the more computing power, the better" needs to be rewritten. Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating on MiniMax and a neutral rating on Zhiyu. Future attention will focus on the intensive release of 20-50 trillion parameter models such as Zhiyu GLM, Alibaba Qwen, and MiniMax M3 Pro.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts stated that the recent increase in cash reserves and positive capital inflows into Bitcoin futures for Strategy are "encouraging signs" for Bitcoin's prospects, although the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains unstable.Strategy's dollar reserves have increased from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, covering approximately 20 months of preferred stock dividends. JPMorgan previously indicated that if Strategy could rebuild sufficient dollar reserves to cover two to three years of dividends, it could alleviate market concerns about the possibility of being forced to sell Bitcoin in the future.Regarding ETFs, the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs has been highly volatile in recent weeks, with inflows last week turning into outflows this week. In contrast, the capital flow for leveraged ETFs related to Strategy has remained stable with continuous positive inflows over the past seven weeks. Analysts believe that this buying pressure mainly comes from retail investors, which may support Strategy's stock price and prevent its common stock from falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. Analysts noted that despite the outflows from the spot ETF this week, Bitcoin futures still recorded positive inflows, which is encouraging.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin market sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish and has maintained this for the second week. A model that integrates multiple market data points shows that the Bitcoin status score has rebounded from a low of -42.9 on June 26 to +34.7. Over the past week, this score has remained in positive territory for more than 80% of the time, reaching a peak of +65.3 on July 10, indicating that the overall market sentiment has shifted from seller-dominated to buyer-strong.Currently, 79.4% of the multiple sub-indicators included in the model point in the same direction, significantly higher than this month's average of 57.3%, suggesting that there are no obvious contradictions among the data, and the current bullish signal is not noise. Moving forward, if the market sentiment score further rises above +50 and the consistency remains above 80%, the bullish trend will be further confirmed; if the score continues to fall below zero and consistency drops below 40%, the current trend will be considered invalid.

According to Jinshi, the Bank of America fund manager survey shows that cash levels have dropped from 4.1% to a "very low" level of 3.6%, triggering a sell signal under Bank of America's cash rule.

According to CoinDesk, in just the month of June, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $4 billion, led by BlackRock's IBIT, as funds shifted towards opportunities in AI trading and the SpaceX IPO. Bitcoin fell about 14% in the second quarter, dropping below $60,000, marking its third consecutive quarter of losses. However, this outflow pales in comparison to the $2 trillion private credit market. Redemption requests in private credit reached $15.6 billion in the second quarter, with 10 out of 16 business development companies exceeding the 5% quarterly cap, and most investors receiving only partial payouts. Fitch expects redemptions to continue in the coming months, and unmet requests will keep several companies under pressure.Bitcoin ETFs have strong liquidity, and outflows directly impact BTC prices; in contrast, private credit BDCs are illiquid long-term instruments. The simultaneous redemptions of both reflect widespread market concerns about liquidity and risk. The energy market is also sending signals of risk aversion, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1983. QCP Capital summarized: "Different sectors, same pattern: the market's buffer space is narrowing." It pointed out that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has bottomed out, Strategy has sold BTC for the first time to pay dividends, and private credit redemptions have surpassed thresholds, all indicating that risk assets face a more challenging environment.

BIT stated in the latest weekly market observation that Bitcoin has recovered most of its decline from June last week, re-establishing itself above the 200-week moving average and entering the key confirmation range of $63,000 to $66,000.Ethereum's weekly increase is even stronger, indicating that this round of rebound has broader market participation.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, the current reading of the Bitcoin UTXO profit and loss ratio model has fallen into a historically low range, indicating that the market is undergoing a deeper internal cleanup.However, the analyst emphasizes that this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed— the 365-day moving average needs to decline further to prove that the market's long-term profit structure has been fully reset, rather than just a short-term oversold reaction. Although a brief rebound may occur due to a short squeeze, it should not be seen as a structural recovery signal if the profit and loss ratio fails to sustain its reconstruction.Overall, signs of internal cleanup in BTC are beginning to emerge, but historical patterns suggest that the market may still need to endure more pressure before fully emerging from this bear market.