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BTC $64,964.18 +0.74%
ETH $1,927.88 +1.26%
BNB $587.41 +3.34%
XRP $1.08 +1.03%
SOL $74.62 +1.39%
TRX $0.3280 +0.51%
DOGE $0.0704 -0.01%
ADA $0.1681 +2.36%
BCH $220.49 +4.76%
LINK $8.51 +2.36%
HYPE $53.59 -3.05%
AAVE $99.54 +1.20%
SUI $0.6962 +1.31%
XLM $0.1732 -0.30%
ZEC $476.12 +2.34%

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Analysis: The profit supply ratio of Bitcoin is approaching 60%, but it is still too early to confirm a bull market

The overall profitability status of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data shows that it is still insufficient to confirm that a new bull market has begun, and there remains a risk of another decline. CryptoQuant data shows that the Bitcoin Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This indicator represents the proportion of BTC supply in the current market where the price is above the holding cost, which has significantly rebounded from the low of 46.2% on June 30, 2026, and is currently close to 60%.However, the recovery of the profitable supply ratio still requires continuous verification. Historical cycles show that the true end of a bear market usually requires two conditions to be met simultaneously: first, the 30-day simple moving average of the Long-Term Holder Profit and Loss Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must remain above 1 for an extended period without falling below it; second, the Bitcoin Supply in Profit must stabilize above 64%. Analysts indicate that this cycle has previously experienced a "false breakout." From April 28 to June 1 of this year, the average LTH-SOPR was above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the profitable supply ratio once rose to 67%, but the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the Long-Term Holder 30-day SMA indicator has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, which remains an important risk signal for assessing the strength of market recovery. Although the BTC profitable supply ratio is improving, the market needs further confirmation of the behavior of long-term holders and changes in the profit structure to determine whether the current rebound truly marks the beginning of a new upward cycle.

hot_img Changxin Technology was listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board on July 27, with a valuation of approximately 580 billion yuan. The entire supply chain, including equipment, materials, and packaging testing, may benefit

Domestic DRAM storage IDM leader Changxin Technology will officially list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board on July 27, with an issuance valuation of approximately 580 billion yuan and a total fundraising amount of 29.5 billion yuan, of which about 22.066 billion yuan is for equipment purchase and installation costs. Industry insiders believe that 2026-2027 is the golden window period for the introduction of domestic equipment.In terms of the supply chain, on the equipment side, North Huachuang has shipped a large volume of various categories such as etching and thin film deposition, Zhongwei Company continues to validate and mass-produce etching and thin film equipment, Huahai Qingshi CMP equipment has entered the core supply chain, and Jingce Electronics and Jingzhida testing equipment are benefiting simultaneously. On the materials side, Yake Technology precursor products cover advanced process needs, Guanggang Gas provides special gases and bulk gases, Jinhong Gas has a gas production order cycle of 15 years, Tongcheng New Materials ArF/KrF photoresists have entered mass production, Jingrui Electric Materials has a market share of over 40% in high-purity hydrogen peroxide, but high-end photoresists are still in the validation stage, and Debang Technology is in the sample testing stage. On the packaging and module side, Huatian Technology is a packaging supplier, Jiangbolong and Demingli have reached procurement agreements, while Maijie Technology is still in the introduction phase. On the distribution side, Shangluo Electronics has been authorized, and there are expectations for supply strategy adjustments after listing. Several listed companies hold shares indirectly through industrial funds, with Shangfeng Cement holding approximately 0.1517% of the equity before issuance.

hot_img Intel and AMD are seeking to sign long-term CPU supply agreements with Chinese server customers, with some product prices increasing by over 40% within the year

According to Reuters, citing informed sources, due to the surge in demand for AI data centers leading to a tight supply of server CPUs, Intel and AMD are negotiating long-term procurement commitments with Chinese server customers. Agreements typically lock in a year's supply, with some discussions extending to two years or longer. Driven by the construction of AI computing power, CPU demand has expanded from AI accelerators to mainstream processors, with some server CPU products in the Chinese market experiencing a cumulative price increase of over 40% this year, with month-on-month increases exceeding 10% at times.Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan stated in April that Xeon server CPU demand "continues to exceed supply," and the company has signed multiple long-term contracts in the first quarter, including a multi-year agreement with Google. AMD has raised its forecast for the server CPU market to exceed $120 billion by 2030. The report notes that China, as one of the largest server markets in the world, is intensifying competition for Intel and AMD processors due to the rapid construction of data centers and AI computing clusters, even as Chinese buyers face U.S. export restrictions on advanced AI GPUs. Intel is set to announce its quarterly results on Thursday, with the CPU shortage expected to become a market focus.
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