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hot_img Citrini Analyst: The progress of China's DUV is not surprising, the sell-off of semiconductor equipment stocks like ASML is excessive

Citrini analyst Jukan posted on social media that the news of China's progress in DUV lithography technology is not particularly surprising, as the market had already formed certain expectations. He pointed out that The Information's related report only cited a professor from a transportation university in China speaking at an internal meeting in June and did not disclose more substantial information. Jukan believes that the sell-off reaction seen in semiconductor equipment stocks like ASML is an overreaction to this news.According to previous reports, The Information cited sources saying that a state-owned enterprise supported by Chinese state capital has begun mass production of domestically developed DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) lithography manufacturing equipment, marking a key progress in the localization of China's semiconductor industry.Insiders stated that the enterprise plans to produce about 5 domestically made DUV lithography machines by 2026 and expand to about 20 machines by 2027. Although there is still a gap compared to the 131 immersion DUV lithography systems delivered by Dutch lithography giant ASML last year, the entry of domestic equipment into mass production is seen by the market as an important breakthrough in the localization of China's chip supply chain.

Jensen Huang: The semiconductor industry may need to expand to ten times its current size in the next 10 years

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated in a Bloomberg podcast interview that South Korea is in a "golden era," and its semiconductor and industrial capabilities can help build AI infrastructure globally. NVIDIA has reached multiple collaborations with SK Group, and the scale of their future business exchanges in areas such as storage procurement, AI supercomputers, and data center construction will exceed $500 billion. NVIDIA will purchase a large number of storage chips from SK Hynix for several consecutive years and will work together to advance the technology roadmap from HBM2, HBM3, HBM3E, HBM4, HBM4E to subsequent products.Meanwhile, SK Telecom plans to expand its AI cloud infrastructure to a maximum of 2 gigawatts soon, and NVIDIA will sell supercomputers to it. The cooperation between the two parties includes both NVIDIA's procurement of storage and SK Group's procurement of AI infrastructure.Jensen Huang believes that as AI entities and robots begin to use computers on a large scale, chip demand will no longer be driven solely by human users. In the next approximately 10 years, the global semiconductor industry scale may need to expand to 10 times its current size. Currently, resources such as HBM storage, land, electricity, and data center construction are all under tight conditions; the industry may be capable of doubling its capacity each year, but faster expansion will be very difficult. The entire industry may be able to double its supply scale each year, but land, electricity, and factory space cannot expand as quickly as consumer electronics, so the construction of AI infrastructure may continue to progress at a limited pace over the next 10 years.Regarding the AI competition between China and the United States, Jensen Huang stated that both countries have excellent AI researchers. Although resources, conditions, and restrictions differ, both will continue to drive advancements in AI technology. The number of AI researchers trained in China each year may exceed the total in other regions of the world, and the United States still needs to continue learning, collaborating, and maintaining competition.

Morgan Stanley missed the lead underwriting qualification for SK Hynix's $26.5 billion IPO, having previously released multiple bearish reports on the South Korean semiconductor industry

According to South Korean media outlet Chosun Ilbo, Morgan Stanley was not selected as the sole lead underwriter for SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipts (ADR) listing. The transaction size is approximately $26.5 billion (about 40 trillion Korean won), making it the largest IPO for foreign capital in the U.S. The commission, calculated at a 0.5% underwriting fee rate, is about $130 million. The final underwriting syndicate consists of Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase. Industry insiders generally believe that Morgan Stanley's exclusion is related to its repeated issuance of bearish reports on South Korean semiconductors.The report's author is Korean-American Managing Director Shawn Kim, who has repeatedly downgraded the stock ratings of memory stocks such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron in research reports published in 2017, 2021, 2024, and on June 6 of this year, with the 2021 report titled "Memory, Winter is Coming." Additionally, Morgan Stanley has recently faced setbacks in South Korea: as a co-underwriter for the SpaceX IPO, Korea's Mirae Asset applied for $1.14 billion in subscriptions but received zero allocation; the sale of IGIS Asset Management, promoted in conjunction with Goldman Sachs, also ended in failure. Morgan Stanley's largest shareholder is Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), which holds approximately 24% of the shares.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix lead the Korean stock semiconductor sector, with Gate Unified Account facilitating a one-stop stock layout

The Korean stock market's semiconductor concept stocks are actively traded, and the market's attention to related assets continues to rise. According to data from the Gate platform, Samsung Electronics (005930) is currently priced at $175.14, with a 24-hour increase of 6.14%; SK Hynix (000660) is currently priced at $1241.59, with a 24-hour increase of 4.08%.CoinGlass data shows that trading in Gate-related stock derivatives is active, with the Gate SKHX contract's open interest reaching $37.73 million and a 24-hour trading volume of $88.09 million; the Gate SAMSUNG contract's open interest is $2.63 million, with a 24-hour trading volume of $7.75 million, both ranking among the industry's top.Gate stocks have established a 7×24 hour trading service system covering the three core markets of US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and Korean stocks, supporting over 10,000 US stocks and ETFs, more than 1,500 Hong Kong stocks, and over 1,000 Korean stocks, totaling coverage of more than 12,500 stocks and ETF assets globally.Users can participate in global stock investments through Gate's unified account using USDT, supporting fractional share trading starting from a minimum of 0.01 shares, and enjoying stock dividend rights. The platform also supports cross-brokerage transfer of US and Hong Kong stocks and company actions such as stock splits and consolidations, further optimizing the stock investment service experience.

JPMorgan: Semiconductors are nearing oversold levels, recommend gradual positioning in the summer

According to ChaoXiang Research, Morgan Stanley's stock strategy report on July 20 pointed out that AI-related stocks have faced fierce selling in recent weeks, with the South Korean stock market dropping 25% from its peak, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 20%. Individual stocks like Samsung and Micron have seen declines between 20% and 50%. The report believes that the core driving force behind this round of decline is technical factors and position clearing, with no deterioration in fundamentals. The gap between relative prices and relative earnings trends in semiconductors continues to widen, but the supply-demand tight balance for DRAM and NAND is expected to last until 2028. DRAM spot prices remain high, and Micron has also raised its performance guidance, indicating that supply-demand tightness will last at least until 2027. The RSI of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is nearing the oversold zone, and the accumulated momentum gains for the year have basically been retraced.Morgan Stanley believes that once the oversold signal is confirmed, a rebound window will open, and it suggests that investors gradually position themselves in semiconductors during the summer. The proportion of second-quarter earnings reports exceeding expectations reached 97%, and companies in the S&P 500 that reported better-than-expected earnings outperformed the market by an average of 1.7 percentage points on the day of the report. In terms of allocation, Morgan Stanley has raised its equity allocation from 60% to 65%, increased its Eurozone allocation from 8.7% to 11%, and is overweight in sectors such as semiconductors, mining, capital goods, automotive, insurance, and banking, while underweighting software, business services, and media in the "AI erosion group." Regarding geopolitical conflicts, the report believes that the "buying on dips" strategy since the end of March remains effective.
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