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CoinShares: Bitcoin shows resilience, but inflation pressure in the United States still limits market upside potential

CoinShares released a report indicating that Bitcoin has shown relative strength this week against the backdrop of renewed volatility in the risk asset market, primarily due to a rebound in spot buying, improved stock market sentiment, and some short covering. Overall, the market is gradually reducing its enthusiasm for the AI narrative and is instead focusing more on whether corporate earnings can meet expectations.The poor performance of some U.S. corporate earnings reports has triggered significant stock price fluctuations, which have also affected Bitcoin to some extent, but it still demonstrates strong resilience overall. Meanwhile, macroeconomic signals in the U.S. remain mixed, with the housing market continuing to weaken. In terms of interest rates, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the meeting on October 28. The market's expectations for another rate hike in December remain high, with the related probability close to 83%.The weakness in the housing market provides some room for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, but last week's higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicate that inflation remains a key factor limiting a shift in policy. If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises rates next week, it could trigger more pronounced financial market volatility due to exceeding market expectations; in contrast, maintaining interest rates and continuing to release hawkish signals would be easier for the market to digest. Overall, the current market remains in a state of intertwining bullish and bearish factors. Improved spot demand, Bitcoin's enhanced ability to withstand stock market volatility, and the cooling housing market all provide some support for the market; however, inflationary pressures have not yet dissipated, limiting the Federal Reserve's room to ease policy. The subsequent trend of Bitcoin is expected to remain highly influenced by interest rate expectations and the overall liquidity environment, with the importance of single industry or market catalysts being relatively limited.

first_img Evan Conrad: Most AI startups cannot purchase computing power

Evan Conrad published an article on October 22 titled "The end of startups," with the subtitle "The coming credit crunch." Evan Conrad stated that within the next six months, most AI startups will be unable to purchase computing power, as global computing power is sold out. To obtain capacity, new clusters need to be contracted, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for non-investment-grade entities to secure online capacity.Evan Conrad mentioned that startups are not investment-grade, thus they are required to pay larger upfront payments. He has seen cases where 100% of the contract amount is required to be prepaid, as lenders and cloud providers are unwilling to take on additional credit risk. He believes that investment-grade tenants are scarce, and due to leveraging and selling to non-investment-grade token buyers, their ratings are downgraded, which he refers to as a credit bottleneck. He anticipates that investment-grade GPU buyers will increasingly demand that token buyers themselves be investment-grade or pay large upfront deposits.In the article, he provides an example where, at the time of writing, B300 could be purchased for $6 per hour and then sold for approximately $30 per hour for inference. He expects GPU prices to rise, and the gross margin for inference layers to decline, making it harder for clients with poor credit to obtain tokens. He proposed that lenders treat GPU clusters as collateral and stated that the physical delivery forward market SF Compute could allow lenders to use GPU hours on a liquidity book as collateral, rather than relying on a single service provider's cluster.

first_img Merz urges companies to embrace AI, NVIDIA invests in four German startups

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated at the Invest in Germany Summit in Berlin that Germany hopes to become a leader in integrating AI in key industries, specifically naming manufacturing, machinery, and the automotive industry. He urged small and medium-sized enterprises to utilize existing data, saying, "Please open the door for AI to use your data." He claimed this is Germany's true secret and real advantage.NVIDIA announced at the summit that it would increase its investment in the European AI sector, planning to support four German startups: Agile Robots, Avelios Medical, Mirelo, and Reflex Aerospace. This is part of its nearly $10 billion commitment to Europe for investing in companies, universities, and research institutions; NVIDIA did not disclose the specific amounts for these four investments. Agile Robots develops AI robots for manufacturing, logistics, and healthcare, Avelios Medical creates hospital management software, Mirelo develops AI models for generating audio from video, and Reflex Aerospace designs and manufactures satellites.NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated that AI will only enhance, not replace, Germany's capabilities in manufacturing, mathematics, and science, and called AI a new tool for businesses. NVIDIA is expanding its cooperation with the German federal government and the Industry 4.0 Platform, with both parties signing a joint declaration of intent to promote industrial application AI models. On the same day, Siemens announced a new AI program in collaboration with NVIDIA at its Erlangen plant, stating that the related technology could reduce engineering work in production preparation by up to 85%, and AI production planning could lower costs by up to 20%.
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