wintermute

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a giant whale bought 123,055 HYPE (approximately 10.02 million USD) from Wintermute after being silent for 27 days.

Market maker Wintermute stated that Bitcoin fell 2.43% last week, marking its third consecutive week of losses, dropping below the support level of $82,500 and testing the $80,000 mark again. Macroeconomically, rising energy prices and inflation concerns are replacing AI financing issues as the main risks in the market. Bitcoin's recent movements are highly correlated with the Nasdaq and AI-related stocks, and ETF fund flows have begun to fluctuate in both directions.Wintermute indicated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy statements will be important short-term catalysts. If it fails to hold above $80,000, the next key support level is $76,000; if it effectively breaks below this, the price may further explore the $70,000 range. In the short term, it needs to regain the $82,000 to $82,500 range to have a chance of restoring an upward trend. If the Federal Reserve leans hawkish, the market may reassess the expectations for a rate hike in December, raising investment yields and increasing downward pressure on Bitcoin; if it leaves room for a December decision, it may create conditions for a rebound.The institution stated that before the Federal Reserve's decision and the release of the U.S. third-quarter GDP and September PCE, market directional confidence is insufficient, and caution will be maintained. If the Federal Reserve leans dovish but the PCE is higher than expected, the market may sell off tech stocks due to inflation pressure, dragging down Bitcoin. Wintermute emphasized that it is not clearly bearish at the moment, but remains cautious until Bitcoin regains the $82,500 level.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, 40 newly created wallets have withdrawn 9,458 BTC from Wintermute since October 1, worth $772 million.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, another 4 newly created wallets received a total of 1,127 BTC from the cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute, worth approximately 93.45 million USD. Based on the transfer amount, the average price of BTC is about 82,900 USD.

According to Lookonchain, three newly created wallets have received 1,090 BTC from the market maker Wintermute, worth 90.38 million USD.

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute today updated its market report, stating that multiple events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the U.S. midterm elections, and third-quarter earnings reports are approaching, and the current narrow trading range of Bitcoin may soon be broken. If Bitcoin breaks above $87,000, it may confirm an upward breakout; if it effectively falls below $82,500, the price could further dip to just above $70,000.On the macro front, the overall CPI in the U.S. rose from 3.4% in August to 3.7%, with core CPI increasing by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, intensifying concerns about energy prices transmitting to core inflation. Wintermute pointed out that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields reflects more of a withdrawal of funds from crowded AI growth stock trades rather than an improvement in inflation expectations. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at its meeting on October 28, but if hawkish signals are released, it may strengthen expectations for a rate hike in December, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and suppressing risk assets.Internally, the cryptocurrency market shows a trend of funds concentrating on mainstream coins. The report indicates that Bitcoin's weekly decline was 1.99%, the Nasdaq index fell by 5.52%, and altcoins overall dropped by 5.69%. Funds continue to flow into BTC and ETH while withdrawing from most altcoins, with high beta and small-cap tokens facing more significant pressure. Wintermute believes that the current risk-reward ratio for mainstream coins is relatively more attractive, and a broad rally in altcoins may need to wait for Bitcoin to strengthen further.Wintermute also noted that the current implied volatility is relatively low, and with the Federal Reserve's decision and midterm elections approaching, the market may be underestimating the risk of subsequent volatility. The Federal Reserve's decision on October 28 will be a key catalyst in the near term, and the performance of AI-related companies' earnings reports will also influence the market's judgment on computing power investments, financing costs, and business models.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute (0xecb...2b00) holds a total position value of 81.36 million USD in Hyperliquid, of which 69.59 million USD is a short position and 11.77 million USD is a long position, with a short ratio of 85.5%. Its largest short positions include: a short position of 22.61 million USD in ETH, with a leverage of 15 times; a short position of 12.65 million USD in SOL, with a leverage of 20 times; a short position of 4.20 million USD in XRP, with a leverage of 10 times; and a short position of 4.10 million USD in the S&P 500, with a leverage of 3 times.Wintermute holds a total of 132 open positions, with an unrealized profit of 936,400 USD, a profit of 9.66 million USD over the past 30 days, and a cumulative profit of 17.746 million USD.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute holds approximately 87.34 million USD in open positions on Hyperliquid, with short positions around 75.45 million USD, accounting for 86.4%; long positions around 11.89 million USD, accounting for 13.6%.Current floating profit is approximately 3.97 million USD, with a historical cumulative profit of about 209.79 million USD. Its largest short positions include approximately 18.33 million USD in ETH, approximately 12.07 million USD in SOL, and approximately 10.72 million USD in SP500.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, in the past 12 hours, 5 newly created wallets received 1,162 Bitcoins from Wintermute, worth 96.77 million dollars. Lookonchain stated that this may indicate that a certain whale purchased the aforementioned Bitcoins through Wintermute.

Wintermute stated that the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that most officials expect another interest rate hike within the year, with the market pricing in a roughly 20% probability of a rate increase by the end of October. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 5.24%. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 index rose 1.2% last week, reaching a historic high, while the cryptocurrency market performed weakly. The rise in U.S. stocks was supported by expectations of corporate earnings growth, while the cryptocurrency market lacked similar earnings support and relied more on new capital inflows.As capital flows reversed, the cryptocurrency assets' sustained upward momentum over the previous six weeks became difficult to maintain. Bitcoin fell back from around $86,000 to $87,000 last week, dipping to about $80,400 on Thursday before rebounding above $83,000 and regaining the range high of $82,500. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $679 million last week, the largest single-week outflow since late June, while the Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of about $542 million.The cryptocurrency market has lost the support of capital inflows, while U.S. stocks still have earnings growth as a cushion. Therefore, in the short term, the market outlook will only remain optimistic if long-term Treasury yields stabilize and spot ETF funds turn back to net inflows. Before these two conditions are met, Bitcoin remains an asset that is more sensitive to U.S. stock volatility and has higher downside risks, making it inadvisable to chase low-quality altcoins. If the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks above the 5.64% reached on September 30, or if Bitcoin continues to face resistance around $82,500, Wintermute will adopt a cautious stance. This week, attention should be focused on the U.S. September CPI data to assess whether energy inflation is spreading to core inflation, as well as the financial performance of financial institutions and AI-related companies.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute sold 619.59 BTC through Binance, worth 51.7 million USD.Meanwhile, BlackRock's IBIT ETF purchased and received 1,426.47 BTC from Coinbase Prime, worth 119 million USD.

Wintermute posted that, on the macro front, risk assets continued to rise last week. Even with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 5%, a high not seen since 2007, there was no significant risk-averse sentiment in the market. Crypto assets led the way, with altcoins rising approximately 5%, followed closely by BTC, and the Nasdaq also recorded gains, while long-term U.S. Treasuries performed the weakest.The report believes that oil prices will be a key factor influencing the interest rate hike expectations for October. Currently, oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-conflict levels, with Brent crude prices nearing $103 per barrel. If oil prices continue to stay around or above $100 per barrel, market expectations for another rate hike in October may remain high, at which point the core issue will shift to whether risk assets can absorb further rate hikes in the short term while bonds remain under pressure.In the crypto market, BTC last week first stood above the 50-week moving average on a weekly basis, with the current level of $82,500 being the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range, which is also a key position to watch this week; if this level can stabilize, it may become the foundation for the previous breakout; otherwise, a drop below this level will reignite concerns about the validity of the breakout. Meanwhile, BTC's market share has increased, the breadth of altcoin gains is at a relatively high level, and institutional options trading continues to increase with low Delta bullish options and call spreads being added for year-end positioning.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the market maker Wintermute currently holds a short position of 126.25 million USD on the decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid.The main positions include: ETH short of 46.92 million USD, SOL short of 11.3 million USD, HYPE short of 10.03 million USD.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the FTX / Alameda Research asset liquidation team transferred 27,372 ETH to Wintermute through 6 wallets 3 hours ago, worth 75.32 million USD, suspected to be entrusted to Wintermute for sale. The related address is 0xCe84...f228.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, after HYPE broke through 97.5 USD, Wintermute has begun to transfer HYPE tokens in large quantities to major centralized exchanges.

Wintermute released the market weekly report, stating that the Federal Reserve passed an interest rate hike of 25 basis points to 3.75-4% with a unanimous vote of 12-0 on September 21. Sixteen officials expect at least one more rate hike this year, and inflation is not expected to return to the 2% target before 2029.The two major catalysts that the market was focused on—the FOMC rate hike and the CLARITY Act—have both materialized: the CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate (49-50, not reaching the 60-vote threshold), and the SEC and CFTC immediately stated they would formulate cryptocurrency regulatory rules under existing authority. The market adjusted for only one trading day before recovering. BTC traded this week in the range of $75,000 to $81,000, with a weekly closing price of $81,159, marking the first time since last November that it has stood above the 50-week moving average; ETH rose 6.7%, trading in the range of $2,350 to $2,600.In terms of ETF funds, there was a net outflow of $746 million from Tuesday to Wednesday, followed by a return of $593 million from Thursday to Friday, resulting in a net outflow of about $6 million over five trading days, with the outflow triggered by CLARITY almost fully replenished within 48 hours. Entering this week, both BTC and ETH broke through the upper range before the U.S. stock market opened, accompanied by about $250 million in short liquidations, with BTC briefly reaching $86,000, a new eight-month high.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute (0xecb...2b00) currently holds a short position in perpetual contracts worth 160 million USD, with an unrealized loss of 3.57 million USD.Among them, the short position in ETH is worth 53.05 million USD, the short position in BTC is worth 26.66 million USD, the short position in SOL is worth 17.84 million USD, and the short position in HYPE is worth 11.62 million USD; the trading volume in the last 30 days is 16.91 billion USD.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute transferred approximately 2,550 bitcoins to Binance, worth about 192.91 million USD.