Morning Report | Wintermute: Bitcoin has fallen for the third consecutive week, with $80,000 becoming a key support level; BlackRock Bond CIO: High-quality AI bonds are more attractive than U.S. Treasuries

Compiled by: ChainCatcher

What important events have occurred in the past 24 hours?

Wintermute: Bitcoin Falls for the Third Consecutive Week, $80,000 Becomes Key Support

According to ChainCatcher, market maker Wintermute stated that Bitcoin fell by 2.43% last week, marking its third consecutive week of decline, breaking below the $82,500 support level and testing the $80,000 mark again. Macroeconomically, rising energy prices and inflation concerns are replacing AI financing issues as the main risks in the market.

Bitcoin's recent movements are highly correlated with the Nasdaq and AI-related stocks, with ETF capital flows beginning to fluctuate in both directions. Wintermute indicated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy statements will be important short-term catalysts. If it fails to hold above $80,000, the next key support level is $76,000; if it effectively breaks below this, the price may further test the $70,000 range.

In the short term, it needs to regain the $82,000 to $82,500 range to hope for a recovery in the upward trend. If the Federal Reserve leans hawkish, the market may reassess the possibility of a rate hike in December, raising investment yields and increasing downward pressure on Bitcoin; if it leaves room for a December decision, it may create conditions for a rebound.

The institution stated that before the Federal Reserve's decision and the release of the U.S. Q3 GDP and September PCE, the market's directional confidence is insufficient and will remain cautious. If the Federal Reserve leans dovish but the PCE exceeds expectations, the market may sell off tech stocks due to inflation pressure, dragging Bitcoin down. Wintermute emphasized that it is not clearly bearish at the moment, but remains cautious until Bitcoin regains the $82,500 level.

"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece": The Federal Reserve's Shift to Tightening Cycle is When "Forward Guidance" Plays a Key Role

According to ChainCatcher, "Federal Reserve Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that when Waller took office, it coincided with the Federal Reserve's shift to a tightening cycle; historically, such periods are often when "forward guidance" plays a crucial role. It is commonly believed that "forward guidance" originated during the ultra-loose monetary policy period of 2008-2009, as the Federal Reserve heavily relied on this tool when interest rates hit the "zero lower bound."

However, the history of forward guidance can be traced back to 1999. At that time, Federal Reserve officials wanted to retract the rate cuts made in 1998 while avoiding the miscommunication that caught the market off guard during the rate hikes of 1994.

Thus, in May 1999, the Federal Reserve attempted to issue a policy statement after a meeting where interest rates were kept unchanged for the first time. Previously, the Federal Reserve only issued statements after meetings where interest rates were adjusted. Six weeks later, the Federal Reserve raised rates. The minutes from the May 1999 meeting indicated that officials were already aware of the high likelihood of a rate hike and hoped to guide market expectations. Officials did not want the market to misinterpret their policy intentions.

Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 Before Federal Reserve Decision: Bearish Options Demand Still Dominates

According to ChainCatcher, Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Tuesday, dropping about 0.4% since midnight UTC, reaching a low of around $79,700. Ethereum fell by 0.5%, and the DeFi index dropped by 1.8%, making it the largest decline among the indices tracked by CoinDesk.

Meanwhile, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) rose by 3.1%, and Asian tech stocks strengthened, but the crypto market failed to follow the rebound. Macroeconomically, the Federal Reserve will begin a two-day interest rate meeting on Tuesday and announce its rate decision on Wednesday. CME FedWatch data shows that the market expects about a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, with traders focusing on whether there will still be a possibility of a rate hike this year.

In the options market, the $72,000 put option expiring on December 25 was the most traded Bitcoin option in the past 24 hours, and the 25 Delta put/call skew for Bitcoin across various maturities is positive, indicating that there is still demand for downside protection in the market.

CF Benchmarks Launches On-Chain Pricing Service, Supporting BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Index Data on Blockchain

According to ChainCatcher, as reported by CoinDesk, CF Benchmarks, an index provider under Kraken's parent company Payward, has launched CFB Oracle, which will be used to introduce pricing benchmarks for the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and CME Group cryptocurrency futures into blockchain applications.

This service provides benchmark data for markets including cryptocurrencies, stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange, supporting developers in building on-chain index funds, tokenized portfolios, and derivatives. CF Benchmarks stated that its indices currently serve products representing over $120 billion in assets.

CFB Oracle now supports Ethereum, HyperEVM, and Robinhood Chain, with plans to expand to other compatible networks in the future. Payward also plans to use this service for its upcoming U.S. perpetual contract products to provide pricing data, which is currently awaiting regulatory approval. This service will compete with oracle providers such as Chainlink and Pyth.

The New York Times: Market Expects Federal Reserve to Hold Steady This Week, Waller Must Explain Why

According to ChainCatcher, The New York Times reported that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this week's FOMC meeting (October 27-28). Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Waller needs to explain why rates are not being raised amid persistent inflation pressures while also indicating that the commitment to combating inflation has not wavered and leaving open the possibility of another rate hike this year.

The report stated that the Federal Reserve raised rates once in September, and the market had briefly priced in another rate hike in October. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, Vice President Jefferson, and Governor Waller indicated at the end of September to early October that they could wait, causing the probability of an October rate hike to drop from over 70% to below 30%. High oil prices and material and electricity demand driven by AI infrastructure have increased price pressures in September.

The Nasdaq 100 index has fallen over 7% since its historical peak on October 6, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond had previously stood above 5% for several consecutive weeks. Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, stated that he expects rates to remain unchanged this week but believes there may still be a rate hike in December, and Waller needs to explain why action is not being taken in October while also clarifying why December is still under consideration.

Since taking office in May, Waller has provided little forward guidance on the interest rate path. The press conference following the July decision to hold steady caused market volatility due to overly brief wording, and subsequent hawkish comments in August, along with the September rate hike and signals of another rate hike in the dot plot, temporarily repaired communication. This week's decision is close to the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, and Trump had previously criticized the September rate hike.

Hong Kong Crypto Payment Card Company Redotpay Plans to Secretly Submit U.S. IPO Application by Year-End, Valuation at Least $5 Billion

According to ChainCatcher, Bloomberg reported that Hong Kong crypto payment card company Redotpay is preparing to secretly submit an IPO application to the U.S. SEC by year-end, targeting a valuation of at least $5 billion.

The report noted that the company is still negotiating pre-IPO financing at a valuation of $4 to $5 billion. Public information shows that the company currently has over 9 million customers and an annualized revenue of over $180 million.

Redotpay also raised $194 million in 2025, with supporters including the venture capital arms of Coinbase and Circle.

Jameson Lopp: Cyber Attacks are Growing Exponentially, AI Accelerates Vulnerability Discovery

According to ChainCatcher, Bitcoin security expert Jameson Lopp stated that cyber attacks are growing along an "exponential" path. He noted that the number of vulnerabilities discovered has increased exponentially over the past two and a half months, with attackers being the first to adopt unreviewed AI models, and security researchers "have not been able to get adequate rest."

Lopp explained that Bitcoin Core has adjusted its security policies because AI can discover vulnerabilities through simple prompts; security defenses need to shift from annual audits to real-time defenses and be embedded in the development process. He also analyzed a PHP remote code execution vulnerability, believing that the actual impact is less than expected.

Additionally, Lopp mentioned that Google's estimate of 500,000 quantum bits involves differences between physical quantum bits and logical quantum bits; if the quantum threat window is less than ten years, the industry will be at a disadvantage. Currently, only a few hundred quantum bits are available, and quantum upgrades will take years due to Taproot, consensus rules, and untested cryptography. About 30% of addresses have exposed public keys, and attackers will prioritize targeting these addresses; unfixable hardware issues and "wrench attacks" have exceeded 700 cases.

BlackRock Bond CIO: High-Quality AI Bonds More Attractive than U.S. Treasuries

According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Yonhap News Agency, Rick Ried, Chief Investment Officer of Global Bonds at BlackRock, stated that the scale of debt financing for the recent expansion of AI infrastructure is unprecedented, and related bonds are more attractive than long-term U.S. Treasuries. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, he said that the scale of financing in the bond and stock markets is unprecedented, and this is the most attractive investment period he has experienced.

Rick Ried focuses on high-quality bonds issued for financing GPUs, data centers, and other AI infrastructure, stating that the scale of newly issued corporate bonds is large, making interest rate conditions better than before. Although the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond exceeds 5%, it has been marginalized by other market products, with Treasuries being viewed more as a market benchmark for measuring the stock market.

Investors can purchase short-term single A-rated bonds to obtain an interest rate of about 7%, avoiding the duration risk of long-term Treasuries. He also prefers secured bonds issued by high-quality companies or assets that can generate cash flow and believes that stock valuations in the semiconductor and computing sectors are at reasonable levels.

The report stated that hyperscale data center operators are issuing the largest corporate bonds in history, raising hundreds of billions of dollars, absorbing funds that would have otherwise flowed into Treasuries, becoming one of the main reasons for pushing up U.S. Treasury yields. The scale of high-quality financing related to AI globally has exceeded $300 billion this year, about three times that of the entire previous year.

Anthropic Submits IPO Application, Cash Holdings Approximately $132 Billion

According to ChainCatcher, Anthropic has officially submitted its IPO application. According to its S-1 cash flow statement disclosed in the prospectus, the company has raised approximately $140 billion in cash through preferred stock, convertible bonds, and SAFE agreements from 2023 to the first half of 2026, with $110 billion raised in the first half of 2026, including $65.2 billion in Series H financing.

As of June 30, 2026, Anthropic's remaining cash includes $112.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $19.3 billion in short-term investments, totaling approximately $132 billion, with an additional $2.5 billion in restricted cash.

Other financing channels include a $15 billion undrawn revolving credit facility expanded in September 2026, as well as up to $77 billion in partner note financing, with $20 billion from Google, $15 billion from Amazon linked to computing milestones, and $42 billion from Broadcom solely for paying lease rents. The proceeds from the IPO will be added to this.

Accordingly, Anthropic's cash holdings are higher than those of tech giants like Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, second only to Google's parent company Alphabet's $242 billion. Its projected expenditure report also shows that starting from December 2026, it has committed approximately $37 billion annually in computing power to SpaceXAI alone, with total computing power commitments estimated at around $780 billion to $810 billion.

Blink Wallet Charges $1 Monthly Fee for Inactive Custodial Accounts, Encouraging Users to Shift to Self-Custody

ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin wallet Blink Wallet has announced a $1 monthly fee for custodial accounts that have not logged into the app for 12 consecutive months. This adjustment was initiated at the beginning of September through a change in the terms of service and push notifications were sent to inactive users, with the first charge completed in mid-October. According to a blog post released by the company, users who log back in within 12 months will have the deducted fees refunded. This fee applies only to custodial accounts and aims to alleviate the burden of inactive accounts on the startup.

The announcement stated that these accounts incur ongoing costs related to ledger and infrastructure, verification record retention, compliance monitoring and reporting, and support for claims, which were previously shared by active users through regular in-app transaction fees. Sources told Bitcoin Magazine that approximately 100,000 accounts met the inactivity criteria at the time of the first charge, with a total balance exceeding $800,000, and the first charge collected about $45,000, primarily from accounts that had been inactive for over a year with small Bitcoin balances.

Blink Wallet originated from the Bitcoin adoption wave in El Salvador, initially named Bitcoin Beach Wallet, and was an early custodial Lightning Network wallet that introduced the Stable Sats feature to hedge against USD value. The wallet was spun off from its founding company Galoy in October 2024, operated by Lukas Duczko and a new board, with Duczko holding the controlling stake, while Galoy continues as a service provider and minority shareholder, also establishing the Bitcoin Beach Fund.

In recent years, custodial wallets have faced overall pressure, with Wallet of Satoshi, Alby, and Blue Wallet successively halting custodial wallet services and shifting to self-custody infrastructures like Spark. The EU MiCA regulations regarding licensing and KYC compliance are an important backdrop. Blink launched a self-custody wallet supported by Spark in June 2026, and its user base is still adapting to this transition. On September 19, hackers withdrew 6.61 Bitcoin from custodial wallet users through compromised management tools, and the company's investors subsequently announced they would fully compensate affected users.

Franklin Templeton's Two Bitcoin Dividend Reinvestment ETFs Expected to Launch Soon

ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin News posted on the X platform stating that ETF analyst Nate Geraci mentioned that Franklin Templeton's two Bitcoin dividend reinvestment ETFs, FBEQ and FIBT, are expected to launch soon, with the effective registration date listed in SEC filings as October 27, which may not necessarily be the trading start date.

Both funds target approximately 95% exposure to U.S. equities and 5% exposure to Bitcoin, automatically reinvesting U.S. stock dividends into Bitcoin exposure rather than distributing them to investors.

FBEQ tracks a U.S. large-cap stock index covering about 500 companies, with an annual management fee of 0.09%; FIBT tracks an innovative thematic index composed of 100 U.S. companies, with an annual management fee of 0.19%.

Visser Labs Founder: Crypto Assets May Outperform AI Stocks

ChainCatcher reports that according to Cointelegraph, Jordi Visser, founder of Visser Labs and former managing director at Morgan Stanley and chief investment officer at Weiss, stated in the Cointelegraph podcast "Trade Secrets" that crypto assets may yield better returns than AI stocks from the AI boom.

He believes that AI agents are creating demand for crypto payments and tokenized assets, stating, "Without AI, the crypto market would not emerge from this bull market." Visser likened AI agents to the App Store or smartphones in the crypto industry, where users can instruct agents to execute financial operations like trading.

He also cautioned about risks: if AI experiences a severe downturn and drags down the stock market, it could lead the crypto market to retest previous lows, but it would not end the bull market. He noted that the "fireworks show" of AI is over, not the end of AI itself, and investors should lower their expectations for returns from AI stocks. In terms of holdings, Visser held only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as of August, and has since begun buying a broader range of tokens, with Bitcoin still being his largest position.

He is watching Dogecoin as a signal of retail enthusiasm returning and maintains an equally weighted index composed of 42 tokens and 4 publicly traded stocks, which has outperformed Bitcoin since June. He has also positioned himself in privacy themes, believing that Zcash and Monero fit his investment logic.

Yesterday, U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs Saw Net Inflows of $110.3 Million, While Ethereum Spot ETFs Saw Net Outflows of $88.6 Million

ChainCatcher reports that according to RootData, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $110.3 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing a net inflow of $110.3 million, while other ETFs had no net inflows or outflows. During the same period, U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $88.6 million, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a net outflow of $104.7 million, Fidelity's FETH seeing a net inflow of $16.1 million, and other ETFs having no net inflows or outflows.

Morgan Stanley: Chip Stock Adjustment Nearing End, S&P 500 Year-End Target at 8000 Points

ChainCatcher reports that Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that despite the cooling enthusiasm for AI trading and recent pressure on U.S. stocks, he maintains his forecast for the S&P 500 index to close at 8000 points by year-end. Morgan Stanley's tactical downside target for the S&P 500 is set at 7100 to 7200 points, slightly below the 200-day moving average, while the basic year-end expected target remains at 8000 points. Wilson noted that several upcoming clearing events, including the midterm elections, should mark the end of the current stock market adjustment.

Wilson is relatively cautious about the semiconductor sector, believing that support levels may be far below current levels, but selling pressure may ease next month. The strategy team stated that as the market questions the timing and scale of AI-related revenue realization, the semiconductor and other capital expenditure beneficiary sectors have become the epicenter of financing concerns; new questions have arisen regarding some participants' cost of capital and whether the credit market can provide sufficient funds to support related expenditures, as governments and non-AI-related capital expenditures are also competing for funds.

The team indicated that given the possibility of more financing plans in the future, it is normal for the market to focus on the supply side, but this concern will persist until financing is completed. The five-year credit default swaps for the highly leveraged new cloud service provider CoreWeave closed last week above 1100 basis points, implying a roughly 50% probability of debt default within five years.

Wilson's team believes that the semiconductor sector's adjustment is nearing its end, expecting this round of adjustment to conclude by mid-November; however, based on technical analysis and comparisons with the previously hot silver market, the sector may drop another 10% to 15% from current levels, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index potentially dipping to around 9500 points. Last week, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell a cumulative 0.7%, with a total decline of over 5% in the past two weeks; on Monday, Anthropic's public IPO prospectus boosted the AI sector, leading chip stocks to rally, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.82%, closing at 26169.38 points.

Chinese AI Stocks Significantly Decline, STAR50 Drops 40% in Four Months

ChainCatcher reports that Reuters on October 26 stated that amid global tech stock volatility, Chinese AI and semiconductor-related stocks have declined. The STAR50 index, primarily composed of mainland AI and semiconductor leaders, has dropped 40% in less than four months, with a market value evaporating by about $480 billion, and the CSI 300 index has fallen about 20% from its June peak, interrupting nearly two years of gains. Beijing fund manager Dong Baozhen stated: the stock market has evolved into a speculative frenzy, and now the bubble is bursting. Traders noted that there was no obvious single trigger for the decline, with high prices, tax bills, and potential bans on Chinese equipment entering data centers in the U.S. or other countries all having an impact.

During the same period, the Nasdaq has retreated 6% from its record high three weeks ago. Goldman Sachs stated that AI stocks account for 42% of China's market value and 57% of trading volume in mainland A-shares and Hong Kong H-shares. The robotics company Yushu saw retail investors oversubscribe by about 8000 times at its IPO, and since trading began in August, its stock price has dropped by about half; chip company Changxin Storage has fallen over a quarter in the past month. Mu Xi Integrated Circuit and Moore Threads saw their stock prices rise by about 700% and 400% respectively on their first day of trading last year, but have also dropped by about half since July.

Optical module companies Zhongji Xuchuang and Guangxun Technology have fallen about 60% from their highs in June and July, partly due to the U.S. moving towards banning these companies from supplying to U.S. data centers. Hainan investor Chen Wensheng stated that he bought Yushu due to perceived official support and the involvement of state-owned funds, but is currently facing losses with friends. The STAR50 is still about 100 times its past earnings, having fallen from a peak of nearly 250 times, and investors are comparing it to the Nasdaq 100's approximately 30 times price-to-earnings ratio. Hong Hao, managing director and chief investment officer of Lotus Asset Management in Hong Kong, stated that the current situation will cause many companies attempting to go public to pause.

Leo Wang, partner at Beijing Qianchuang Capital, stated that overemphasizing the market capitalization weight of tech companies in major indices can create serious bubbles in certain industries and siphon funds from other sectors. Wang Zhuo, partner at Shanghai Zhuozhu Investment Management, stated that chip manufacturers and AI suppliers will ultimately fall into price wars like other Chinese manufacturers. HSBC Research noted that Asian funds have generally been selling over the past three months but remain overweight in China; Goldman Sachs' updated recommendation list this month includes Zhongji Xuchuang and Changxin Storage. The China Securities Regulatory Commission did not immediately respond to Reuters' inquiries, and Chairman Wu Qing met with market participants earlier this month to gather suggestions for improving the capital market.

Canada Opens Consultation on Stablecoin Draft, Maintains Ban on Earnings

ChainCatcher reports that the Canadian Ministry of Finance has launched a 60-day public consultation on the stablecoin regulatory draft, which will end on December 23. The draft maintains the prohibition on stablecoin issuers paying interest or returns to holders, including arrangements through third parties to encourage customers to hold tokens, although rewards related to transactions may still be allowed.

The draft requires non-bank issuers to back circulating fiat-pegged tokens with reserves held by qualified Canadian financial institutions on a 1:1 basis, with qualified institutions including banks, credit unions, and trust companies. Holders must be able to exchange stablecoins for regular currency within three business days, with a redemption fee cap of 1%. Earlier this year, the government passed the Stablecoin Act, stating that the draft is necessary for the law to take effect and will specify the requirements for registration with the Bank of Canada.

The stablecoin framework is expected to take effect by the end of 2027. A spokesperson for the Canadian Bankers Association stated to The Logic in June that the association firmly supports the explicit prohibition of direct and indirect returns under the Stablecoin Act, as the banking industry is concerned that stablecoin returns could lead to deposit outflows and reduce lendable funds.

Coinbase Canada has received permission from the Ontario Securities Commission this year to offer returns on eligible tokens, but must warn of risks and clarify that funds are not covered by deposit insurance. At the end of last month, Canada’s six largest banks announced they are exploring a Canadian dollar tokenization system to expedite fund transfers between traditional financial institutions.

Anthropic IPO documents show cloud channel revenue share rises to 48%

ChainCatcher reports that according to the IPO filing released by Anthropic on Monday, sales generated through the cloud marketplaces of Google, Amazon, and Microsoft in the first half of 2026 accounted for 48% of Anthropic's total revenue, up from 11% in 2023. These cloud service providers collect payments from customers and pass on the fees to Anthropic, with payments to channel partners increasing by $2.7 billion year-on-year in the first half of this year. The documents indicate that Anthropic's second-quarter sales were $11.555 billion, with an operating profit of $974 million.

The S-1 describes the aforementioned cloud service providers as simultaneously acting as investors, customers, distribution partners, and competitors, stating that they can understand Anthropic's pricing and commercial terms, and also mentions that these companies may prioritize promoting their own AI models, raising antitrust concerns. The document lists minimum commitments for computing power: at least $114.5 billion to Google by 2033, at least $110 billion to Amazon by 2036, and $44.9 billion to Microsoft; the minimum commitments remain valid regardless of whether the computing power is actually used.

It is also expected that an additional $125 billion to $150 billion will be paid for TPU computing power from 2028 to 2031. In terms of equity, Amazon and Google currently hold shares without voting rights and are not included in the list of securities with more than 5% voting rights; after the IPO conversion, both will hold more than 5% of preferred shares and some convertible notes.

Amazon has invested approximately $18 billion to date and has committed to invest up to an additional $15 billion under specific conditions, with related notes convertible into a maximum of 1.84 billion shares, equivalent to 10.9% of fully diluted shares as of June this year, and subject to a 12% ownership cap. Google has invested approximately $23 billion and has committed to invest an additional $20 billion upon meeting certain conditions, with the latest agreement having a shareholding cap of 14.99%. The document also lists a $161.2 billion equipment leasing agreement related to Broadcom and a procurement arrangement for computing power from SpaceXAI of up to $120.5 billion.

All-In Podcast host: Bitcoin will test $57,000 again in the next 12 months

ChainCatcher reports that Jason Calacanis, a well-known angel investor and co-host of the All-In Podcast, has urged his followers to sell Bitcoin and invest in artificial intelligence instead.

He stated on Tuesday that Bitcoin's brutal year has just begun and made three predictions: outflows from Bitcoin ETFs will continue; Bitcoin's price will test the $57,000 low again in the next 12 months; and Bitcoin will never break its all-time high again.

Jason Calacanis said, "Just sell Bitcoin directly and turn to the superintelligence field. The former has almost no value, while the latter can bring unlimited upside potential for humanity."

Goldman Sachs: Semiconductor exposure explains about 54% of return differences, oil prices only 2%

ChainCatcher reports that Goldman Sachs' latest research shows that over the past three weeks, exposure to semiconductor stocks has explained about 54% of the return performance differences between asset classes, while oil price exposure accounts for only 2%. As AI trading influence continues to expand, tech stocks are becoming a significant factor driving global market risk appetite and asset performance divergence. Goldman Sachs pointed out that recent investor risk appetite is highly synchronized with the relative performance of large tech stocks.

Last week, concerns about AI investment returns, financing costs, and capital expenditures intensified, leading to a sell-off in tech stocks and corporate bonds, with Goldman Sachs' risk appetite indicator falling to its lowest level since April 2025. The South Korean stock market has become a typical case of this impact, with the KOSPI rising 3.1% on Tuesday, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics rising 5.2% and 4.2%, respectively.

Due to the high weighting of semiconductor stocks in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, changes in global AI investment expectations directly affect local market performance. Goldman Sachs emphasized that the 54% and 2% data reflect a statistical relationship within a specific time window and do not imply that AI factors long-term determine global market fluctuations; the impact of high oil prices on inflation, monetary policy, and asset pricing cannot be ignored.

Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are about to announce their earnings reports, and the market will focus on whether AI demand can continue to grow and whether massive capital expenditures can translate into actual profits.

Binance applies for crypto license in Brazil, will delist 22 assets

ChainCatcher reports that Binance has submitted an application for a cryptocurrency service provider license to the Central Bank of Brazil through its local entity BBrasil, in order to maintain its operations in one of the largest crypto markets in Latin America before the regulatory deadline of October 30. The application was submitted on October 23, and the company stated that this will allow Brazilian users to continue accessing cryptocurrency assets, stablecoin trading, payment, and investment services.

Meanwhile, Binance announced that changes for Brazilian users took effect on Tuesday, including restrictions on crypto lending, margin trading, and other services, and will delist 22 cryptocurrencies in the country. Thiago Sarandy, General Manager of Binance Brazil, stated that the company supports considering the characteristics of virtual assets in a regulated market and hopes that ongoing dialogue with the Central Bank of Brazil will allow it to offer other products that have been suspended to comply with current regulations in the near future.

According to regulations from the Central Bank of Brazil, existing cryptocurrency service providers must submit authorization applications by October 30 to continue operating under transitional arrangements. However, submitting an application does not equate to receiving regulatory approval, and Binance will still need to wait for the Central Bank of Brazil's formal review results to determine whether its local business can operate fully compliant.

Visa launches three business payment capabilities, including AI agent invoice payment pilot

ChainCatcher reports that on October 21, payment network Visa announced three capabilities aimed at business card growth, virtual card security, and business payment automation in San Francisco, targeting financial institutions, fintech companies, and enterprises. Darren Parslow, Global Head of Visa Commercial Solutions, stated that businesses are accelerating automation from identifying vendor opportunities to approving invoices and executing payment-related transactions, and these capabilities are designed to provide the necessary data, security, and control.

The three capabilities are SESA 2.0, Visa Commercial Fraud Solutions, and a live pilot conducted with billing platform BILL and accounts receivable platform Billtrust. SESA 2.0 combines AI vendor scoring, Visa commercial payment data, buyer benchmarks, and business value modeling to help identify vendors more likely to accept commercial cards and estimate growth opportunities.

Visa stated that since its launch, SESA has helped financial institutions discover over $600 billion in potential cardable spending. Visa Commercial Fraud Solutions covers vendor verification, authenticating commercial virtual card users through 3-D Secure, and transaction-level controls such as spending, merchant category, location, and time.

Payment controls have already been provided to eligible issuing institutions in supported countries and regions, while the other two are currently in pilot and are planned for full launch in 2027. Visa also stated that the pilot with BILL and Billtrust is live, allowing trusted AI agents to initiate and assist in completing approved invoice payments through the vendor portal, using tokenized payment credentials without relying on shared vendor portal login credentials.

Ethereum spot ETF saw total net outflow of $88.6 million yesterday, BlackRock's ETHA leads with $105 million net outflow

ChainCatcher reports that according to Rootdata, the Ethereum spot ETF experienced a total net outflow of $88.6 million yesterday (Eastern Time, October 26).

The Ethereum spot ETF with the highest net outflow for the day was BlackRock's ETF ETHA, which saw a net outflow of $105 million. As of that trading day, ETHA had a historical cumulative net inflow of $12.174 billion.

The Ethereum spot ETF with the highest net inflow for the day was Fidelity's ETF FETH, which saw a net inflow of $16.1 million.

Federal Reserve's October interest rate decision to be announced soon, market expects no change

ChainCatcher reports that at 02:00 Beijing time on October 29, the Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by Chairman Waller at 02:30. In the September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the rate range to 3.75%–4%; as of October 27, market pricing indicates an approximately 89.5% probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged this time.

Analysis: On-chain options are the biggest opportunity in the crypto space

ChainCatcher reports that X user Momilio stated: on-chain options are the biggest blank and opportunity in the current crypto space. This content is excerpted from their upcoming research report on on-chain options, currently just a chapter's highlights. Momilio stated: mature financial markets will eventually expand to options, and crypto has reached a turning point; constraints are no longer regulatory or infrastructure, market-making liquidity is improving, and pricing systems can now support larger-scale transactions.

Its combined name: The on-chain options trading volume is still only 6.9% of Deribit's options trading volume. To reach a critical scale, a large influx of retail order flow is needed. Momilio states that the annual contract volume of U.S. options has increased from 4.19 billion in 2017 to 15.2 billion in 2025, a growth of 263%, mainly due to retail investors. After Robinhood launched commission-free options in December 2017, the proportion of S&P 500 options on the same day rose from 5% to over 60% within ten years.

By 2023, the proportion of contracts expiring within a week rose to 68%, with same-day options accounting for 43%; SSRN research shows that over 75% of retail-related trades are contracts expiring on the same day. The premium for Indian stock options is expected to reach 190.65 trillion rupees by the 2026 fiscal year, which is 45.8 times that of the 2016 fiscal year, with over 90% of retail derivatives traders only engaging in options.

By the end of 2024, the Securities and Exchange Board of India will raise the minimum contract size from 500,000 rupees to 1.5 million rupees and restrict weekly expirations to only one benchmark index. The premium is still expected to increase by 7% in the 2026 fiscal year. In the first half of 2026, the Indian exchange's options contracts traded 39.3 billion, which is 4.5 times the 8.7 billion in the U.S. The U.S. premium of 6.3 trillion dollars is nearly 5 times that of India's 1.3 trillion dollars.

Kraken's Parent Company Aims to Become Hyperliquid's First CFTC-Regulated Deploying Entity

According to ChainCatcher, Payward, the parent company of the crypto trading platform Kraken, announced plans to become the first CFTC-regulated deploying entity on the on-chain perpetual contract infrastructure Hyperliquid's HIP-3* market. Payward will deploy a perpetual futures market for U.S. customers based on Hyperliquid as the infrastructure layer.

After obtaining regulatory approval, Bitnomial, a designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization under Payward regulated by the CFTC, will serve as the HIP-3* deploying entity, responsible for creating, holding, and managing the relevant market, as well as completing contract clearing and settlement.

If approved, NinjaTrader Clearing, a futures commission merchant registered with the CFTC under Payward, will take over customer accounts. Hyperliquid states that HIP-3 will support optional deploying entity configurations for licensed markets in future network upgrades, with the related new features collectively referred to as HIP-3*.

At its core is a whitelist managed by the deploying entity or its sub-deploying entities, a feature that is an incremental option for HIP-3, with the decision to enable it made by the deploying entity, while existing markets remain unchanged. The initial version has been launched on the testnet, and the specifications are still preliminary and may be adjusted based on feedback. Hyperliquid states that HIP-3* deploying entities operate independently, using their on-chain infrastructure to operate their own markets and retaining control and responsibility for the deployment.

Four French Financial Institutions Call for Conditional Allowance of Stablecoin Rewards, Oppose Expanding Ban to Staking and Lending

According to ChainCatcher, the French Ministry of Finance, the Financial Markets Authority (AMF), the Bank of France, and the Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority (ACPR) jointly suggested to the European Commission that third parties such as crypto platforms be allowed to issue rewards to stablecoin holders under specific conditions. The four institutions believe that such rewards should be regulated rather than outright banned.

The four institutions proposed that platforms disclose reward information to holders, should not promise guaranteed returns, and should not advertise rewards as savings products; regulators should also monitor the impact of rewards on bank deposits. The French side still supports banning stablecoin issuers from paying interest but opposes expanding the ban to staking and lending activities.

The European Central Bank and central banks of EU countries advocate maintaining the ban on stablecoin interest and including indirect benefits such as rewards and fee waivers, as well as activities like lending and staking within the scope of restrictions. The European Commission must submit a review report on the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) to the EU legislative body by June 30, 2027, and may propose amendments.

South Korean Police Arrest 7 in First Large-Scale AI-Assisted Hacking Case

According to ChainCatcher, Seoul police arrested 7 suspects accused of using generative AI to carry out hacking attacks. The Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency stated that the involved organization consists of about 90 entities, having stolen 8.2 million records, marking the first arrest of suspects in a large-scale AI-assisted hacking case in South Korea. The targeted victims include hospitals, universities, private tutoring centers, golf courses, and large corporate group subsidiaries, which hold a significant amount of personal information such as names, contact details, and records of ordinary citizens.

One funeral service company lost 1.22 million records, and reports indicate that the tutoring center's data also included information on minors. According to local media, the main suspect, aged 32, studied arts and sports and has no IT background. He told investigators that he self-taught hacking techniques through YouTube and online blogs, while police pointed out that he worked in a security company conducting simulated attacks from 2019 to 2022.

He initially used website vulnerability scanning tools and later introduced AI coding agents and automated penetration testing systems like Artex at the end of August. Police stated that he hacked into 60 companies within 44 days from August 31 to October 13. The entire attack operation lasted about 13 months, from September 2025 to this October, and the case was filed in June after a victim reported it. Police indicated that such a large-scale attack previously required a hacker group, but AI now allows one person to achieve this in a short time.

The suspect sent emails to 38 victims, collectively extorting 360 million won, approximately 272,000 dollars, but the only confirmed payment was 300,000 won, about 210 dollars. The main suspect was detained and transferred to prosecutors last Friday, facing charges of violating South Korea's Information and Communication Network Act, as well as extortion and attempted extortion. Police will continue to investigate the other 6 accomplices and identify more victims, with 15 institutions already reporting damages.

Mochatrade Completes $5.56 Million Financing, CoinFund Leads

According to ChainCatcher, The Block reported that Mochatrade, an Indian fintech platform incubated by Y Combinator, has completed $5.56 million in financing, with this round led by CoinFund and Coinbase Ventures participating. The company previously received pre-seed investments from Y Combinator and Pioneer Fund.

Mochatrade offers perpetual contracts linked to U.S. stock prices for Indian traders, allowing users to deposit and trade in rupees via UPI, covering over 50 types of U.S. stock perpetual contracts, as well as Pre-IPO stocks, commodities, indices, and crypto assets, with a maximum leverage of 50 times. The platform is built on Hyperliquid, using non-custodial wallets, supporting 24/7 settlement without the need for overseas remittances.

Mochatrade co-founder Chetan Manda told The Block that the platform is currently in the testing phase and plans to open to the public in the coming weeks. The company is advancing its registration with the Indian Financial Intelligence Unit FIU-IND and collaborating with local law firms to build a compliance framework.

Galaxy Research Director: Some Long-Term Funds Increased Holdings in Bitcoin ETFs in Q3, SIGFIG Clients Increased by $73 Million

According to ChainCatcher, Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn stated that the 13F filings for Bitcoin ETFs are still in the early stages, with most large asset management firms and registered investment advisors (RIA) typically submitting documents before the November 16 deadline.

However, some long-term funds have increased their holdings in Bitcoin ETFs in the third quarter. Wealth management advisory firm SIGFIG Wealth Management submitted its first related filing, with its clients increasing their investments in Bitcoin ETFs by approximately $73 million in the third quarter.

A significant portion of the assets managed by the firm comes from retail client accounts at banks such as Wells Fargo, Citizens, Santander, and UBS.

Meme Popularity Rankings

According to data from the meme token tracking and analysis platform GMGN, as of October 28, 08:00,

The top five popular tokens in the past 24 hours for ETH are: ETH, 4, DACITY, EVMZONE, ELON2028

The top five popular tokens in the past 24 hours for Solana are: Frongus, STONK, LAUNCH, Nothing, REMUS

The top five popular tokens in the past 24 hours for Base are: XDP, ELSA, STONKEX, Basecat, CTR

The top five popular tokens in the past 24 hours for BSC are: BNCB, GANG, Gangstar, GENI, GCAT

What are the noteworthy articles to read in the past 24 hours?

Galaxy Research Report: Bitcoin Bear Market Bottomed in June, Quick Money Withdrawn, Old Coins' Selling Pressure Halved, Now is the Time to Accumulate and Hold

We firmly believe that the market cycle bottom has been established, the selling pressure from multiple parties has significantly diminished, the fundamental logic of macro monetary devaluation is more solid than ever, and the restless and blind speculators have largely exited the market. All of this is the basis for our strong bullish outlook on Bitcoin's future.

Bitcoin has long proven its ability to surge to at least $125,000, and we have no reason to doubt that it cannot reclaim this price peak. In fact, the current overall technical and macro landscape is extremely favorable.

Alex Thorn, Global Research Director at Galaxy. New York. October 22, 2026.

On the Eve of the Midterm Elections, Trump-Linked Crypto Firms Urgently Build Legal Defense Lines

On August 8, 2026, during the third day of the LIV Golf New York event held at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey, Eric Trump was observing the competition.

American Ventures also invested in a golf operations company, which later announced a merger with a drone manufacturer, driving up stock prices. This drone company, named Powerus, secured an $82 million government anti-drone order. American Ventures was established by investment bank Dominari Holdings Inc., in which Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump hold minority stakes. A spokesperson for Dominari did not respond to interview requests.

Podcast Notes | NEAR Co-founder Illia and Core Members Discuss: We Used DeepSeek, and the Security Audit Cost of Tens of Thousands of Dollars Was Reduced to Hundreds

Host: Thank you very much to Illia, Alex, and Anton for joining The Rollup today and bringing us this high-capacity intellectual discussion on cutting-edge technology.

We firmly believe that the future of confidential AI and autonomous agents is accelerating towards us. Thank you three, and see you in the next episode!

14 Key Details Worth Watching in Anthropic's Prospectus

Matt Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital focusing on IPO research, told Reuters that no company wants to drag on too long at the critical point of an upcoming listing; perhaps they could get a higher valuation next year, but they decided to "go for it."

Risk warning and disclaimer. The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Invest at your own risk.

"We've Seen This Model Before!" A Short Seller Explains: Why Short AI Newcomer CoreWeave

However, Daniel clearly distinguished this short bet from his judgment on the AI industry as a whole. He stated that Seawolf's short position on CoreWeave is essentially a bet on capital availability and financing costs: tech companies are competing with the government for financing resources, and the tightening of monetary policy further compresses the space for cheap financing.

"If it cannot finance at a low cost, or if capital is simply unavailable, then completing this journey will be very difficult—this is precisely my judgment on CoreWeave," Daniel told Business Insider.

After Reading the Prospectus, I Finally Understand Why Anthropic Doesn't Care About Users

The product structure diagram in the prospectus: at the bottom are the four model series Mythos, Opus, Sonnet, and Haiku, in the middle is the developer platform, and at the top is the value delivered to enterprise clients | Image source: Anthropic

As for the account banning issue that is most sensitive to domestic users, the prospectus also provides a systematic explanation: the company has "support for regional policies" and implements IP-based geographic blocking to restrict access to its models, platforms, and applications from specific regions. Mainland China is not within its service area.

When a company valued at nearly two trillion dollars places all its chips on enterprise workflows and code agents, the position of individual users in its eyes will only become less significant. It remains to be seen whether Anthropic can maintain its proud starting point for enterprise adoption when more and more developers who have been turned away turn to other competitors.

Podcast Notes | Conversation with Peter Thiel: The Idea that AI Will Destroy Humanity is a False Proposition; Establishing Monopolies Through Panic is the Real Apocalypse

Additionally, another core dimension revealed by Girard is the profound relational dimension of humanity. Our humanity is defined not only by individual contemplation but also by the immeasurable warmth, loyalty, and emotional bonds between family, close friends, and the civil community. AI should become a powerful leverage tool that frees us from the burdens of physical and mental labor, allowing humanity more leisure to embrace sunsets and deepen real interpersonal connections. This is the bright shore towards which technological evolution should steer.

Host: Profound and insightful reflections. Thank you very much, Peter Thiel, for bringing us this high-level philosophical feast today; it is thought-provoking. Thank you for watching The Builders, and see you next time!

Manus Just Quietly Released Its 2.0 Declaration

He said this has significantly reduced his daily anxiety of "not knowing where to start." At the end of the article, Zhang Tao returned to the question of what people ultimately do. His answer is to define problems, assess quality, decide what is worth doing, and take responsibility for the outcomes.

In AI Native organizations, the role of humans has not diminished; rather, it has become more concentrated. This declaration has already proven Manus's own organizational efficiency. Whether it can become a product that others are willing to pay for will depend on when and in what form those "internally used only" features are delivered to users.

Zhang Tao curiously wonders what their working methods will look like if he writes on this topic again in six months or a year. I think by then, looking back, we will probably know whether this article is a declaration or a preview.

Arthur Hayes Aiming for a "Three-Peat": Building the AI Computing Power Derivatives Market with Flop Network

The benefits of the Flop spot and futures market. Anyone can participate in buying or supplying computing power on Flop Network.

Settled transactions are executed in a public and transparent market. All data usage on Flop Network is free.

It's that simple. If you want to build any type of computing power derivatives, you must start by observing the activities and prices in the Flop Network spot and futures markets.

OpenAI's Mid-tier Model Starts a Price War, "Tool Person" GPT-6.1 Terra Goes Live

OpenAI has released the mid-tier model GPT-6.1 Terra: significant improvements in visual understanding and computer operation speed, with a per-token price about one-tenth that of GPT-6 Astra, but user feedback is mixed.