analyst

Analyst Darkfost posted on platform X that Bitcoin is about to enter a phase of 365 days without reaching a new all-time high (ATH). In previous cycles, Bitcoin typically set a new high shortly after the halving, but this pattern seems to be changing. Meanwhile, the time intervals from each cycle peak to the next all-time high are also shortening: from 2014 to 2017 it was 1180 days, from 2017 to 2020 it was 1094 days, and from 2021 to 2024 it has shortened to 849 days. Darkfost believes that if this trend continues, this round of Bitcoin may reach a new historical high more quickly. The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur around April 2028.

Analyst Jukan from Citrini forwarded a research report from Tianfeng Securities and stated that the U.S. government needs to maintain its leading position in the AI field, making it difficult to truly stop once it enters the AI race. Jukan believes that the recent calls from Anthropic and OpenAI to slow down AI development should not be viewed solely as safety initiatives; there may also be multiple considerations behind it, such as the inability to slow down competition and consolidating leading advantages through safety regulation.Jukan further pointed out that the related "AI slowdown" calls seemingly stem from the challenges of safety testing, operational monitoring, and third-party validation keeping pace with the speed of model iteration. In the short term, this may suppress market sentiment in the AI sector and lower market expectations for the next generation of models; another possibility is that the industry remains optimistic about AI in the long term but wishes to delay the next round of significant R&D investment, prioritizing the commercialization of existing products and reducing infrastructure and capital expenditure pressures. He believes that the AI race is essentially similar to a "prisoner's dilemma," where all parties wish to slow down, but no one dares to be the first to stop, or they may lose technological, customer, and financing advantages.Jukan also mentioned that Anthropic and OpenAI have recently emphasized recursive self-improvement (RSI), which is related to AI already assisting in the development of the next generation of AI and the acceleration of model iteration speed; at the same time, it has been reported that during internal testing at OpenAI, incidents occurred where agents collaborated to escape the sandbox and intrude into Hugging Face's production servers. Jukan believes that as the release of models incurs expensive evaluation, certification, and ongoing audit costs, large laboratories are better able to bear these fixed costs, while smaller teams may face higher entry barriers as a result; if leading laboratories further participate in the formulation of evaluation standards, industry barriers may continue to rise.

Market observers indicate that Anthropic executives are calling for a slowdown in technological development, which may temporarily drag down chip manufacturers and supply chain stocks, but the long-term impact may be limited.Investors will assess whether a more cautious approach to developing advanced models will suppress profits. Nevertheless, the demand for chips, energy, and computing power continues to exceed supply, and any weakness may be short-lived.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that this cycle may be the one with the most activity from long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin. He observed related changes through the CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) heatmap, which tracks the number of days BTC is held before being spent or transferred; the transfer of BTC by long-term holders is usually associated with selling intentions.The increase in LTH activity during this cycle may benefit from the market liquidity brought by spot ETFs and companies establishing Bitcoin treasury reserves. However, the rise in CDD is not only seen at market tops; it may also reflect the capitulation behavior of some holders.He added that Coinbase previously transferred 800,000 BTC, a large portion of which had been held for over 6 months. Such asset migrations can also cause a temporary rise in CDD, but they are considered incidental events. Currently, with Bitcoin's recent rise, LTH activity has slightly increased, possibly because some holders wish to realize quick profits; however, overall, related activities are still relatively calm for 2026, and long-term holders are still waiting.

After the CPI was announced yesterday, Ethereum briefly surged nearly 10%, quickly rising from $2433 to $2667. According to analyst alicharts, this short-term spike was driven by whales, during which the number of Ethereum transactions worth over $1 million increased by nearly 14%.However, alicharts also stated that Ethereum is now approaching a major resistance level. Previously, over 10 million ETH were traded between $2700 and $2800, forming a significant supply barrier. This is the key range that whales must break through for Ethereum to rise to $3000.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the recent rise in Bitcoin has driven investor sentiment to its most optimistic level in nearly two years, with related market sentiment indicators briefly breaking 89, entering the "extreme greed" zone, the last time a similar level was seen was in March 2024.Darkfost pointed out that when market sentiment is excessively optimistic or pessimistic, it is often worth paying attention to potential market turning points. Currently, this indicator has started to retreat from its previous euphoric levels, gradually returning to a relatively normal range, while the Bitcoin price is attempting to hold its current level.

Analyst Giulia Petroni pointed out that due to the surge in oil prices, rising bond yields, and increasing expectations of interest rate hikes, gold prices are expected to drop more than 2% this week. New York gold futures prices once fell by 0.5%, to $4,383.9 per ounce.The market is closely watching the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released on Friday. Traders expect a 67% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next week.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that on-chain data shows the proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit has rebounded from 47% at the end of June to 69%, moving away from historically common market pressure zones.Meanwhile, the 90-day change of this metric rapidly reversed from -19% in early August to +41%, marking one of the faster recoveries in Bitcoin's history.

According to Bitcoin.com, Matt Mena, a senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, stated that in the context of approximately $603 million in cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and a rebound in risk appetite for altcoins, Bitcoin's market performance in the fourth quarter is expected to strengthen significantly.Mena pointed out that BTC is currently supported around $77,000, and the likelihood of it pushing towards the $82,000 range by the end of the month is increasing. He listed potential target levels for the fourth quarter as $100,000 BTC, $3,500 ETH, $100 HYPE, and $130 SOL. Additionally, Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin in the last three weeks by 29% to 20%, and Hyperliquid is approaching $90, indicating that funds are rotating towards altcoins.

Blockworks research analyst Shaunda Devens stated that the annual revenue of the Solana-based meme coin issuance platform PumpFun reaches $677 million, with the lowest weekly revenue fluctuations among the top ten protocols. The platform combines launchpad and DEX infrastructure while expanding the consumer layer, with daily trading volume on mobile and Terminal's front end increasing 5.6 times since early July. Cumulative revenue since 2024 has reached $1.37 billion, making it the second highest revenue-generating application this year after excluding stablecoin issuers, only behind Hyperliquid.Devens noted that PUMP is currently trading at a 2.8 times price-to-sales ratio, with its valuation range for PUMP between $0.0108 and $0.0205, equivalent to 2.3 to 4.4 times the current price. The programmatic buyback funded by 50% of revenue absorbs approximately 17.6% of the circulating supply at the current price, with about 77% of allocated insider tokens still unmoved. She mentioned that the team has a treasury of approximately $2 billion.She also stated that 96% of the revenue comes from tokens with a market cap of less than $1 million, with revenue priced in SOL at historical highs. PumpFun accounts for about 70% of the trading volume of Solana meme coins. The revenue for the second quarter was $85.2 million, with a run rate of $125.4 million in the third quarter, representing a 47% quarter-over-quarter growth, with the launchpad contributing $87.1 million and PumpSwap contributing $38.3 million. Daily active users on mobile increased from 5,600 to 34,100.

This week's upcoming release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) has become a key point for judging whether inflation is re-accelerating. Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out in a live broadcast that, against the backdrop of 162,000 new non-farm jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%, the demand side in the U.S. remains resilient. If core PPI and service prices continue to stay high, companies may pass costs onto consumers, driving up subsequent CPI and prompting the market to reprice the Federal Reserve's policy path of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period."Lewis Huang further analyzed two scenarios: if PPI exceeds expectations but CPI remains moderate, it indicates that companies lack pricing power and can only compress profit margins to absorb costs; if both PPI and CPI exceed expectations, it signifies that the inflation transmission chain has reopened, potentially serving as a catalyst for a stronger dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. From a trading perspective, if PPI exceeds expectations and drives the dollar up, gold and high-valuation tech indices like the Nasdaq 100 may come under pressure; conversely, if PPI falls short of expectations and the dollar retreats, it would support a rebound in gold and growth stock indices.Lewis Huang reminded traders that they should not only focus on the first wave of market movements following the data release but also observe whether PPI is confirmed by CPI, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields. If the rise in PPI is merely a short-term cost shock, the market impact will be limited; if costs continue to be transmitted to consumers, the market narrative may shift back to "recurring inflation and the continuation of high interest rates."

Analyst Killa pointed out that many people always focus on the "imbalance zone," "weekly FVG (Fair Value Gap)," or low trading volume areas within specific price ranges. While there is indeed reason to pay attention to the imbalance zones, in a bull market, the imbalance zones formed by strong upward trends are mostly not fully retraced. In fact, historical data shows that explosive upward K-lines at the bottom often remain unfilled.Killa believes that BTC is unlikely to retest its $62,600 double long entry point, nor does he expect it to return to the publicly shared average spot entry cost of $65,800. The absolute worst-case scenario may only see some form of capitulation near $70,000. It is more likely to hold in the $73,000 to $75,000 range, and then initiate a new round of upward movement, targeting $85,000.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that short-term holders of Bitcoin, holding for no more than 6 months, have transferred a total of 549,300 BTC to exchanges.During the same period, the price of Bitcoin rose from $64,000 to $78,000, an increase of about 21%; after reaching a local high of $81,800, it fell by about 4.1%, but still retained most of the gains.

CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu pointed out that Bitcoin closed at $78,450 on September 8, continuing the rebound momentum from around $60,000 during the summer, while there was no simultaneous surge in large deposits at spot exchanges.Data shows that on September 8, the daily inflow of the top ten spot exchanges was 5,442 BTC, which is 4.4 times that of the previous day, but only 5.1% higher than the 30-day average. The seven-day average inflow was 4,678 BTC, lower than several peaks earlier this year. From a more macro perspective, the recent price rebound has not been accompanied by an abnormal increase in large deposit activity, providing limited evidence for assessing the ongoing selling pressure from large transfers.What needs to be focused on next is whether the seven-day average inflow will continue to rise while prices weaken. For now, the deposit rebound on September 8 seems more like a return to recent norms rather than an abnormal spike.

On-chain analyst SomaXBT posted on platform X, stating that suspected Lootbot users have encountered a collective wallet theft incident, with the current loss amount exceeding 600,000 USD (approximately 245 ETH).Initial information indicates that about 50% of the victims are Lootbot subscription users. It is worth mentioning that Lootbot is one of the projects founded by dexter, the founder of the previously soft Rug project gm.ai, originally a trading bot platform in the Telegram ecosystem.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the supply ratio of long-term Bitcoin holders has significantly increased during this pullback, with many traders buying and holding for over 6 months during the dip.This is a common global behavior during bear markets or significant pullbacks, where long-term holders have much lower Bitcoin liquidity, helping to form a solid bottom support. This is a positive signal on a long-term level, slowly accumulating.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that in the past two days, the pressure from active buy and sell orders for Bitcoin has shifted to the sell side, with the price dropping from $79,900 to $78,700. Open interest has increased as prices fell, indicating that new positions are driving this trend.Data shows that the Bitcoin active order pressure oscillator is at +3.82, then fell below zero and remained in negative territory for 46 hours, with the latest reading at -3.19. Although selling pressure has eased from the phase low of -5.28, bulls have not yet regained control. The short-term outlook remains bearish, and a signal for improvement would be the oscillator consistently returning above the zero axis, accompanied by a price stabilization.

On-chain analyst Ai Yi posted on X that a certain address has accumulated profits of approximately 1.157 million dollars through five ETH swing trades since July.This address purchased 1,650 ETH (approximately 3.97 million dollars) at 2,417 dollars on September 3 and sold all of it for profit at a price of 2,474 dollars about 9 hours ago, making a profit of approximately 108,000 dollars on that single trade. The scale of each swing trade is around 4 million dollars, and the overall strategy is relatively conservative, focusing on small profits.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the 30-day change rate of Bitcoin's realized market capitalization turned positive on August 24 after being negative for 87 consecutive days, and rose to +0.88% on September 6. The realized market capitalization reached $1.068 trillion, increasing by $9.36 billion over the past 30 days, indicating an improvement in the on-chain cost basis after a long-term contraction, and continued to rise during the period when Bitcoin's price fluctuated around $80,000.

According to on-chain analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), Bitcoin has just experienced the most intense deleveraging phase since 2023. The open interest on Binance has significantly dropped below the 180-day moving average, and the largest historical long and short liquidations during this cycle occurred during this period.Currently, the open interest on Binance remains at $9.6 billion, above the 180-day average of $8.3 billion, accounting for approximately 37% of the total open interest in Bitcoin, which is higher than the levels during the rebound in May—when this level helped BTC return to $82,000. Meanwhile, measured by the cumulative net buying volume over 365 days (the difference between spot buying and selling), the current buying pressure for Bitcoin has reached the strongest level since the last bear market. Analysts point out that although this adjustment has significantly impacted traders, there are signs of market recovery, providing support for a bullish rebound in Bitcoin; however, the excessively high leverage levels still need to be monitored, as they may trigger a new round of intense deleveraging.