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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin funding rate is showing typical signals before the significant increases in September 2024 and December 2022, indicating that pessimism may have recently peaked.From March to May, Bitcoin corrected over 50%, and the accumulation of short positions pushed the funding rate down to negative values. Subsequently, BTC rebounded to $82,000 in May. This signal has appeared again, potentially leaving room for a bullish reconstruction in the coming months. This indicator has been transformed into a monthly sentiment aggregation tool, which is more effective than the Fear and Greed Index.

According to CoinDesk, analysts say that if the Federal Reserve releases any dovish signals, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin. There is significant divergence in the market regarding whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday—CME FedWatch data shows a 70% probability of maintaining rates and a 30% probability of an unexpected 25 basis point hike. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman pointed out that the reduction in forward guidance usage by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has led to increased market uncertainty, making this FOMC meeting one of the most uncertain in years.Bitcoin has risen about 6% so far in July, while the S&P 500 has remained flat, and the semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 20%. K33 Research's research director Vetle Lunde stated that the Nasdaq had previously been strong and positions were stretched, with Bitcoin continuing to consolidate near multi-year lows, leading to a weakening correlation between the two. This week's FOMC meeting may have limited impact on BTC. Rahman stated, "Any dovish signals could drive Bitcoin to continue outperforming."

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the scale of BTC long-term holders transferring their holdings to trading platforms has recently risen to a high level. Currently, long-term holders contribute 5.1% of the total Bitcoin inflow to trading platforms. This ratio is close to the historical record, only having been higher than the current level in 2020, approaching 5.5%. This change occurred after a significant drop in Bitcoin prices.Since a 90-day moving average is used, this indicator has a certain lag, and changes will not immediately reflect the latest market dynamics. In the future, this trend is likely to gradually stabilize, but based on current data, the trading activity of long-term holders has clearly become more active recently.

According to Jinshi reports, Mabrouk Chetouane, the Global Market Strategy Director at Natixis Investment Management, stated in a report that Federal Reserve Chairman Waller is unlikely to challenge the current consensus at his second monetary policy committee meeting. Chetouane pointed out that Waller will not succumb to the temptation of a 25 basis point rate hike, although at this stage, it is almost impossible to bring inflation back to target levels by the end of the year.Analysts generally expect the Federal Reserve to remain on hold on Wednesday, but the money market reflects a 38% probability expectation of a rate hike.

Citrini analyst Jukan posted on social media that the news of China's progress in DUV lithography technology is not particularly surprising, as the market had already formed certain expectations. He pointed out that The Information's related report only cited a professor from a transportation university in China speaking at an internal meeting in June and did not disclose more substantial information. Jukan believes that the sell-off reaction seen in semiconductor equipment stocks like ASML is an overreaction to this news.According to previous reports, The Information cited sources saying that a state-owned enterprise supported by Chinese state capital has begun mass production of domestically developed DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) lithography manufacturing equipment, marking a key progress in the localization of China's semiconductor industry.Insiders stated that the enterprise plans to produce about 5 domestically made DUV lithography machines by 2026 and expand to about 20 machines by 2027. Although there is still a gap compared to the 131 immersion DUV lithography systems delivered by Dutch lithography giant ASML last year, the entry of domestic equipment into mass production is seen by the market as an important breakthrough in the localization of China's chip supply chain.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on the X platform that the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has dropped to about 0.42, which is approximately four times lower than the historical average of 1.7, indicating that Bitcoin is currently in an undervalued range. However, this indicator has not yet fallen into negative territory, which means that the market has not yet experienced the "capitulation" typically associated with cycle bottoms.Meanwhile, the Bitcoin 7-day realized profit and loss (Realized P/L) has turned positive from negative, currently at about $239 million, showing that on-chain selling pressure has eased. Analysts believe that the market is currently in a phase of undervaluation and short-term stabilization, but there are no signs of capitulation needed to confirm a cycle bottom, nor is there a clear new round of demand-driven momentum.

Citrini analyst Jukan published a response to the recent market rumors regarding bearish notes on NAND and negative news about QLC price negotiations. It is not surprising that SanDisk accepted a price lower than the initial offer when signing a long-term agreement with Meta, as SanDisk is one of the most proactive NAND manufacturers in pursuing LTAs, planning to allocate over 50% of its total shipments to such agreements. Based on this strategy, it is naturally willing to accept LTA prices lower than the current quarterly contract price, and it cannot be inferred that "SanDisk cannot seamlessly resell all orders to higher-bidding North American customers."In response to rumors that Chinese module manufacturers were rejected by domestic CSPs when promoting eSSD, Jukan explained that Chinese CSPs have direct procurement channels with Yangtze Memory Technologies and that the issue is not a lack of demand. Regarding the claim that large-scale cloud providers are driving down prices for QLC eSSD, leading to some volumes not being sold, he believes that new cloud providers have sufficient demand to absorb these volumes.Jukan concluded by stating that negative headlines are more easily amplified when storage stocks perform poorly, but the fundamentals have not shown substantial deterioration. He reiterated that he remains bullish on storage. Previously, Jukan had stated that DRAM contract prices still have about a 40% upside potential until the end of 2027, and HBM supply continues to be tight. This clarification on the NAND side further solidifies his bullish stance on the entire storage sector.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since 2025, the inflow of stablecoins into exchanges has been continuously declining, reaching the lowest level since that period. Currently, the monthly average inflow of stablecoins (USDT, USDC) is about $2.3 billion, with an annual average inflow of about $3.7 billion. When the price of Bitcoin reached its historical peak, the monthly average inflow was $5.6 billion, and the annual average inflow was $4.3 billion. This dynamic clearly indicates the current weak demand and lack of investor interest. However, it is important to note that when the inflow of stablecoins peaks, it is often a lagging signal. When some investors accelerate profit-taking, exchanges increase the supply of stablecoins, while new investors continue to bet that the price of Bitcoin will keep rising. Currently, market demand still needs improvement.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Charts stated that Ethereum rebounded after testing the lower edge of the price channel. Currently, $1850 is a key support level, and as long as this position holds, Ethereum may rise back towards the upper edge of the channel near $2060.

Analyst Noname tweeted that Bitcoin will not hit bottom this quarter. Sideways fluctuations indicate indecision; at this price level, indecision often leads to a downward breakout first, followed by an upward breakout. At least one more quarter is needed for the market to clarify.His predictions for the trend in 2026 are as follows: July: False stability. Bear market trap rebound. The market reshuffles and eliminates the indecisive. August: The real crash begins. First test of the $50,000 area. September: Continued pressure. W-shaped bottom structure begins to form. October: The real bottom. Accumulation area. Personally, I will adopt an aggressive strategy at this stage. November: Signs of recovery appear, and the bottom rebound begins. December: The first breakthrough of the $100,000 mark since the bear market began.

Glassnode Chief Research Analyst CryptoVizArt stated that the cost basis distribution heatmap for short-term holders shows that during Bitcoin's rebound from $57,000, a new round of chips transferred to new buyers occurred in the $62,000 to $65,000 range.He believes this structure has two sides. On one hand, buyers are actively accumulating during the upward process, which may form a new cost basis support, providing conditions for Bitcoin to further test levels of $66,000 and above. On the other hand, this round of chip accumulation is more concentrated at the tail end of a local rebound. If Bitcoin cannot effectively break through $66,000, the risk of the market forming a phase top will increase. $66,000 is a key short-term position for judging the above two scenarios.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin bear market has lasted for about 9 months, affecting both short-term and long-term holders. The cost basis of short-term holders has fallen below that of long-term holders and has been confirmed for 3 days, triggering a "bear market nearing its end" signal. This indicator excludes BTC held for more than 7 years when calculating the cost basis of long-term holders to more accurately reflect the economically active long-term positions.Darkfost emphasized that this signal does not mean the bear market is immediately over, nor does it indicate that the market bottom has been established; rather, it suggests that the market may be entering the final phase of the bear market, during which adopting a dollar-cost averaging strategy may be more reasonable. He stated that if the cost basis of short-term holders subsequently breaks back above the cost basis of long-term holders, it can be seen as a confirmation signal for the beginning of a bull market phase and can serve as a reference for ending dollar-cost averaging. Currently, the cost basis of short-term holders has fallen from $112,500 to $69,000.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out in a recent report that the performance trajectory of gold ETFs over the past 22 years may provide important references for Bitcoin ETFs. Both gold and Bitcoin ETFs are packaged products centered around "non-yielding assets," lacking dividends, interest payments, or government backing, with prices primarily driven by investor sentiment.The report states that the leading gold ETF, GLD, once topped the list of the world's largest ETFs, then experienced a prolonged period of stagnation lasting about eight years, but each cycle's peak has gradually risen. Balchunas believes that Bitcoin ETFs may similarly undergo a repetitive cycle of "rapid ascent—sharp pullback—prolonged recovery," with peaks gradually rising with each cycle.

According to Cointelegraph, renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt posted that the daily chart of Nasdaq 100 mini futures (NQ) may form a "diamond" pattern, or may have already formed a market top.In addition, Peter Brandt recently predicted in an interview that Bitcoin might first rebound by $10,000, then drop to a high of $40,000, and form a bottom in early October 2026.Brandt issued a warning based on Bitcoin's historical cycle patterns, pointing out that Bitcoin may experience a false breakout, with the current Bitcoin price fluctuating around $60,000, facing short-term downside risks. Brandt also emphasized his long-term optimism for Bitcoin, expecting the coin price to reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2029.

According to Jinshi reports, gold prices have fallen below $4,000 per ounce and are expected to record a weekly decline of over 3%. The escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran have heightened market concerns, with rising energy prices potentially keeping inflation elevated and prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.Soojin Kim, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, stated that recent price trends indicate that the market is placing greater emphasis on the possibility that U.S. interest rates will remain high for a longer period, rather than the traditional safe-haven demand for gold.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin market sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish and has maintained this for the second week. A model that integrates multiple market data points shows that the Bitcoin status score has rebounded from a low of -42.9 on June 26 to +34.7. Over the past week, this score has remained in positive territory for more than 80% of the time, reaching a peak of +65.3 on July 10, indicating that the overall market sentiment has shifted from seller-dominated to buyer-strong.Currently, 79.4% of the multiple sub-indicators included in the model point in the same direction, significantly higher than this month's average of 57.3%, suggesting that there are no obvious contradictions among the data, and the current bullish signal is not noise. Moving forward, if the market sentiment score further rises above +50 and the consistency remains above 80%, the bullish trend will be further confirmed; if the score continues to fall below zero and consistency drops below 40%, the current trend will be considered invalid.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that DTCC's digital conversion is taking place on HyperLedger Besu, which is DTCC's private network, as well as on the Canton public blockchain. This is part of DTCC's multi-chain strategy aimed at ensuring resilience, scalability, and selectivity.Additionally, DTCC currently holds over $114 trillion in securities, and its subsidiaries processed approximately $47 trillion in securities transactions last year.