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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.'s latest report indicates that the rolling distribution volume of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) has decreased by 22% in the past week, showing that the potential selling pressure from long-term holders has eased.However, despite Bitcoin's price remaining above the average cost basis of long-term holders, their unrealized profit margin continues to narrow. Adler points out that the distribution activity of long-term holders has weakened, but the shrinking profit buffer is still worth noting.

CryptoQuant analyst CoinNiel stated that as of October 27 (UTC), Bitcoin exchange outflows indicate an improvement in supply conditions, but the evidence still supports a neutral stance. The exchange shifted from a net inflow of 7,278 BTC on October 26 to a net outflow of 12,702 BTC on October 27, with net outflows of 4,633 BTC and 4,048 BTC over the past 7 days and 30 days, respectively, although there were inflows recorded on 4 days in the past week.The funding rate is +0.00762%, higher than the 7-day and 30-day averages, indicating a bullish tendency but not overheated; the open interest is $25.67 billion, up 0.56% over 7 days and 0.33% over 30 days. The LTH-SOPR decreased from 1.1657 to 1.0124, close to the breakeven point, but it cannot confirm a decrease in selling volume. CoinNiel stated that he maintains a neutral judgment until a sustained trend of net outflows from exchanges is formed; if net outflows continue and the funding rate and open interest remain stable, it will strengthen a bullish judgment. If net inflows reoccur and both increase significantly, a reassessment will be necessary. Recent net outflows have largely been driven by single-day movements, the funding rate remains positive, and open interest is growing moderately.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that short-term holders of Bitcoin (STH) have been in a profitable state on average for nearly two months, with an estimated cost basis of $76,500 and a current average profit margin of about 5.5%. Compared to less than a month ago when unrealized profits averaged as high as 20%, this level has significantly narrowed.The last time short-term holders had such high profits was shortly before the peak in October 2025, so the subsequent market consolidation is not surprising. Darkfost believes that short-term holder profits are still present, and the cost basis of $76,500 remains a noteworthy support level, with short-term holders likely to intervene here to defend the average entry price.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the BTC transferred to exchanges by short-term Bitcoin holders is primarily at a loss, with the 24-hour net inflow metric dropping to -18,600 BTC, compared to a positive 10,400 BTC a week ago.This metric fell to -23,100 BTC on October 26, then narrowed somewhat, but remains in negative territory.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, stating that as BTC has maintained above $80,000 for several consecutive weeks, there is a clear divergence in the behavior of retail investors and whales transferring BTC to Binance.Data shows that the 30-day cumulative amount of BTC transferred to Binance by retail investors has increased from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, nearly doubling and reaching a new high in nearly six months. In contrast, the inflow amount from whales has continued to decline during the same period, dropping from $5.9 billion at the end of August to the current $3.8 billion. Darkfost believes that some retail investors may view this initial rebound as an opportunity to reduce their positions or exit, while whales have not yet shown a clear willingness to sell. It is worth noting whether whales will maintain a low level of exchange inflows if the BTC price continues to rise.

Crypto analyst Ali stated that currently, $1.26 may be the lower boundary of the price channel formed by XRP since August. If this support level is broken, the price may first drop to $1.11, and further decline could reach $0.98, about 22% lower than $1.26. Ali believes that if whales continue to sell off, the price of XRP could drop to $0.98.Data shows that in the past few weeks, the number of wallets holding 10 million to 100 million XRP has decreased from 351 to 339; meanwhile, the amount of XRP held by exchanges has increased from 11.003 billion to about 11.05 billion, an increase of about 50 million, and has remained high over the past week, which may indicate increased potential selling pressure.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost stated that this round of deleveraging is driven by factors such as price declines, chain liquidations, and traders actively closing positions to reduce risk. Looking back at July this year, Ethereum also experienced a more severe contraction in open contracts, followed by stabilization and a rebound, with an increase of over 32%, and the price once breaking through 2800 USD. Deleveraging is part of the market adjustment process, and such phases are often accompanied by panic sentiment, which may also occur at the tail end of an adjustment.The overall performance of the altcoin market has been weak over the past three weeks, with Ethereum's price correcting by about 15%, and its market capitalization shrinking by approximately 54 billion USD. In the derivatives market, Binance's ETH open contract volume decreased by 1.3 billion USD in the past month, a decline of nearly 20%, dropping to 5.7 billion USD; the total amount of ETH open contracts across the network has fallen to 11.5 billion USD.

Bitcoin News posted on platform X that Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright stated that as of October 12, Bitcoin has risen nearly 50% from its bear market low of about $58,000 in June, with a trend similar to its recovery path in 2022.He warned that the return rate of Bitcoin in each cycle is narrowing, and past performance does not guarantee future results, but a significant increase in dollar terms is still possible; it took nearly 16 years for Bitcoin to break $100,000 for the first time, while rising from $100,000 to $200,000 could be much quicker.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Charts stated that as the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 approach, investors may overlook the recurring phenomenon of Bitcoin pullbacks observed in previous election cycles. He believes that this election may once again be accompanied by significant volatility, and the downside risk is worth noting, with a key focus on the lower price level of $73,000. According to his statistics, during the U.S. midterm election cycles in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin experienced pullbacks of 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively.However, he emphasized that correlation does not imply causation; the election itself may not necessarily be the reason for the decline, as these pullbacks are also influenced by the overall market cycle of Bitcoin, liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment. Fourth-quarter returns also exhibit similar characteristics: in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin fell by 16.7%, 42.16%, and 14.75% in the fourth quarter, respectively. The only exception was in 2010, when it rose by 391%, but Bitcoin was still in its early development stage at that time. Therefore, in the past four midterm election years, three of those years recorded negative returns in the fourth quarter.Regarding the subsequent trend, Ali Charts indicated that the area around $73,000 is close to the average purchase cost of current short-term Bitcoin holders, which can be used to observe the positions of recent investors entering the market. He pointed out that in an established bull market, Bitcoin often finds support near the cost of short-term holders after experiencing a significant pullback. He believes that if selling pressure accelerates after the election on November 3, pushing Bitcoin back down to around $73,000, that area will become an important position to test whether buyers are still willing to maintain the overall bullish trend. If the price continues to rebound from that area, it will strengthen the bullish judgment; in terms of operations, he will wait for signs of selling pressure exhaustion and renewed demand before considering establishing long positions.

Analyst Darkfost pointed out in a post that this week, the spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of 5,183 BTC. Although the inflow scale is still moderate, it is still positive.This change has brought the cumulative net flow of the ETF back into positive territory for 2026, after being in a state of net outflow for most of the year. Since January, the cumulative net inflow has reached 10,784 BTC.

Analyst Darkfost stated that the largest Bitcoin UTXO spending activity since 2026 has occurred on-chain, with a single UTXO valued at over 1 million dollars accumulating a total spending amount of over 21 billion dollars, involving more than 230,000 BTC. The related operations are likely from the same entity.Most of these UTXOs had been dormant for 1 to 6 months, and about 4.6 billion dollars came from long-term holders (LTH) who had held for 1 to 3 years. Darkfost pointed out that these Bitcoins may primarily be transferred between different addresses, and there are currently no obvious signs of flowing to exchanges, so it cannot be concluded that there is a large-scale sell-off. If the destruction of the related UTXOs corresponds to realized profits or losses, the on-chain realized profit and loss indicators may show significant changes.

Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, stated in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine that Bitcoin "could easily drop another zero," meaning it could fall back to $10,000 from current levels. He was one of the few analysts on Wall Street who was bullish on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 but has now turned bearish.McGlone mentioned that the launch of Bitcoin ETFs actually marks the end of this trading cycle, as Bitcoin has turned into a high beta "stock puppet" with no independent advantages, highly correlated with the stock market. He also noted that the market has priced in three interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which poses headwinds for major assets including Bitcoin, gold, and copper.The interview also covered topics such as the energy shock in the Middle East, the U.S. midterm elections, the situation between Russia and Ukraine and diesel exports, stablecoins and the GENIUS Act, Tether's layout in Hong Kong, and asset tokenization. McGlone indicated that U.S. Treasuries are his important trading direction moving forward.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that since September 22, Bitcoin has continued to show a net outflow from exchanges, with the current 30-day average net outflow being about 1,500 BTC per day, a significant decrease from approximately 3,000 BTC a week ago.However, this decline is mainly due to the large outflow data from September 22 exiting the 30-day statistical window, rather than any recent large-scale capital inflow back to exchanges.

Analyst Darkfost stated that recently, the activity of XRP whales has significantly increased, and selling pressure has notably risen. Data shows that, based on the definition of whales as addresses with single transactions exceeding 1 million XRP, the monthly inflow amount to Binance from such addresses has increased by approximately $72 million since August, reaching $112.4 million, the highest level since March of this year, surpassing the average of about $90 million over the past three months.During this period, the daily inflow amount even exceeded $400 million at one point. Darkfost pointed out that this change coincided with XRP rebounding over 30% since August, indicating that some large holders may be taking the opportunity to realize profits. Currently, the scale of whale inflows to exchanges has returned to more typical levels, showing that the related selling pressure has eased. However, subsequent trends may still change rapidly with fluctuations in XRP prices, and the flow of whale funds remains a market indicator worth monitoring.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the unrealized profits of large short-term holders have decreased from 9.8 billion dollars on September 22 to about 4.6 billion dollars on October 20, a reduction of approximately 5.1 billion dollars within a month, representing a decline of 53%.This does not mean that whales have sold off more than half of their holdings, but rather that their current unrealized gains from holding BTC have significantly narrowed.

Bitcoin has been trapped in the range of $80,000 to $84,000 for the past two weeks. Huobi HTX's chief analyst Cloud believes that this is essentially a balance of two opposing forces: ETFs have seen a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, while exchange holdings continue to flow out, and long-term holders are only moderately cashing out. In the week leading up to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Bitcoin is likely to continue waiting in this range. The CME has only priced in a 16% chance of a rate hike in October, while economists generally believe it is close to a 50-50 chance. This discrepancy in pricing and opinions will make funds hesitant to bet in advance.If a direction is chosen in advance, the possibility of a downward test is slightly higher: the funding rate remains high, and the options skew continues to lean towards puts, indicating that bulls have not yet cleared out, and the demand for downside protection is still increasing. However, there has been effective support formed multiple times below $80,000 in the past month, making a downward breakout more likely to be a false breakout.Confirmation signals for a breakout are divided into two groups: for an upward breakout, the daily close needs to be above $84,200, with a cumulative net inflow of over $500 million into ETFs for three consecutive days, and the funding rate not exceeding 15%; for a downward breakout, it must fall below $79,800, with a single-week ETF outflow exceeding $500 million, while exchange funds turn into net inflows. The true source of direction will come from the interest rate decision announced at midnight on October 29, Beijing time, and the nearly 89% pricing for a rate hike in December.Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment products.

Cryptocurrency market analyst Darkfost expressed the view that the Bitcoin market is currently in a stage of insufficient investor confidence, with both buyers and sellers hesitant. The current profit supply ratio has fallen from a previous brief breakthrough of 60% to 53.8%, approaching the breakeven line of 50%. This indicator excludes Bitcoin held for more than 10 years to better reflect the current state of the circulating market.It is not uncommon for this situation to occur at the end of a bear market. After the market experiences a phase of sell-off and capitulation, and the profit supply ratio falls below 40%, it usually takes some time to regain the 50% level. The restoration of investor confidence and the formation of new demand require time, and the market still needs to wait for investor behavior to gradually stabilize, driving continuous improvement in profit status.

On-chain data analyst XWIN cited CryptoQuant data indicating that Bitcoin's current on-chain data is showing a significant divergence between whale behavior and the spot market. Although large holders have begun to accumulate again, demand in the spot market remains weak, and the market is transitioning from "seller exhaustion" to a potential bottom. XWIN stated that on-chain data shows positive accumulation signals. Holders of 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins have significantly reversed their 60-day net accumulation from negative 62,600 to positive 5,230, indicating that major whales are shifting from a distribution model back to accumulation.At the same time, the USDT reserves on the Binance trading platform have surged from about 790 million USD to 1.76 billion USD, suggesting that potential buying power in the market is increasing. However, spot buying in the U.S. has not kept pace. The Coinbase premium index is currently around -0.1416%, and weekly trading platform flow has turned into a net inflow of 8,428 BTC. Additionally, the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) hovers around 0.9982, indicating that short-term holders are still experiencing slight losses near the breakeven point and are choosing to sell.Analysts believe that while the underlying structure is improving, stronger spot demand is still urgently needed to spark a sustainable rebound. They suggest that investors focus on three key signals in the future: the trend of the Coinbase premium index, changes in exchange net flow, and whether the STH-SOPR can successfully rise above the 1 mark.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Brian Vieten, the head of digital asset research at financial services company Siebert Financial, which manages approximately $20 billion in assets, stated in a recent interview that Bitcoin will rise to $175,000 within the next 12 months, reaching that target by 2027. He noted that Bitcoin's low point of nearly $58,000 in June marked the exhaustion of sell-offs by miners, exchanges, treasury companies, and lending institutions, laying the groundwork for subsequent increases.Based on the aforementioned Bitcoin price prediction, Siebert Financial has given Strategy a buy rating with a target price of $350, and this target price does not assume mNAV expansion. Vieten believes that Strategy's digital credit engine, sticky ETF demand, and the GENIUS Act together provide Bitcoin with a "clean runway."The interview also discussed how major banks are changing the Bitcoin lending landscape, the market structure shifts brought by ETFs as sticky capital, the new demand generated by the GENIUS Act along with stablecoins and tokenization, and whether the four-year cycle is still valid.Vieten also talked about the conditions institutions need to meet before increasing their Bitcoin allocations, as well as the potential institutional FOMO that the GENIUS Act might trigger, comparing Strategy's $350 target price with younger treasury companies.

Analyst Darkfost stated that since Bitcoin reached its peak last October, its maximum drawdown has reached 54%, and the current price has dropped about 35% from the peak.During the same period, the cumulative selling pressure in the Meme coin sector on the Binance platform has exceeded 1.4 billion USD, making it one of the most severely impacted sectors in this bear market. Darkfost pointed out that Meme coins lack fundamental support, with prices primarily driven by market sentiment and cultural trends. Currently, the market capitalization of Meme coins accounts for less than 3% of the total market capitalization of altcoins, reflecting a continuous loss of liquidity in this sector. He believes that Meme coins often face greater downward pressure during market adjustments, and investors should be wary of the associated risks.