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crash

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Article
Flash

first_img China's sellers: AI hardware may experience high volatility, rather than confirming a crash

Semiconductor analyst Jukan shares a commentary translated into English by him, authored by a salesperson from a local Chinese sell-side institution. The individual states: In mid to late September, hardware quickly transitioned into a downward wave, with China and South Korea adjusting first, experiencing deeper declines and longer durations, followed by Japan, Taiwan, and the semiconductor ETF SOXX weakening subsequently; there is significant divergence in the market regarding whether AI is entering a mid-cycle collapse, but there is less controversy about the industry still advancing.The individual summarizes the views of interviewed investors: High long-term interest rates in the U.S., capital expenditures beginning to rely on external financing and competing for funds in the market, multi-layered leverage accumulation, and tight funding are the main reasons for this round of decline, with companies like CoreWeave experiencing a noticeable deterioration in financing structure and cost burden. Model invocation prices are decreasing, but capital expenditures and supply chain costs are difficult to reduce quickly, making short-term investment returns hard to realize. ASML and TSMC's guidance this season is strong, but near-term pressures cannot be ruled out; the bullwhip effect and differences in value chain levels may cause volatility to be greater than expected.The individual also mentions that use cases beyond coding are emerging in scenarios such as SaaS and AI drug development, which may gradually alleviate investment return concerns and expand demand. His personal judgment: Before more evidence emerges, the current situation resembles a high-volatility phase rather than a collapse that has already begun; the decline may not yet be over, and hardware leadership may give way to applications. Even if control of both houses changes in the midterm elections, the impact may mainly be limited to constraints on certain data center projects, and the U.S. earnings season needs to verify the performance of large technology companies.

Tread.fi CEO: The flash crash of perpetual contracts for AI concept stocks in the U.S. stock market began at Binance, leading to a chain of liquidations

The trading execution platform Tread.fi CEO DYJ published an analysis of the flash crash of AI concept stocks' perpetual contracts in the US stock market early in the morning, stating that the sell-off began at Binance. A trader liquidated approximately 2 million dollars of SanDisk long positions, triggering a sharp decline in other markets due to the thin depth of the order book.According to the transaction timeline listed, a large amount of active selling first appeared on SNDK at Binance, with a transaction amount of about 407,000 dollars in the first second, followed by about 1,030,000 dollars in the next second, and MU also began to see selling in the same second. Hyperliquid then saw sweeping orders, with about 10 addresses submitting IOC sell orders concentrated on SNDK, SOXL, DRAM, SKHX, SKHY, and MU within 1.8 seconds, followed by a second round of synchronized selling. These orders were all used to open new short positions, rather than just reducing positions.In the minute of the first concentrated selling, the transaction amounts for SNDK and MU on Binance were approximately 21.9 million dollars and 5.1 million dollars, respectively, while the corresponding transaction amounts on Trade.xyz were about 3.1 million dollars and 300,000 dollars. The transaction amount for MU on Hyperliquid subsequently expanded to 10.8 million dollars and 9.5 million dollars within the next two minutes, which DYJ attributed to chain liquidation.

first_img 10x Research: Bitcoin's $63,000 as the boundary between the bottom and the crash

The research institution 10x Research published that Bitcoin's current price of about $63,000 is a critical level that will determine whether market sentiment trends towards a bottom or a collapse. Bitcoin had been fluctuating narrowly around $60,000 for six months before the 2024 U.S. election, and this level also served as the top construction area of the 2021 cycle. After Trump's victory confirmation, Bitcoin quickly rose from $70,000 to $90,000, briefly falling below $90,000 during the tariff impact in April 2025, but due to most holders still being in profit, the trading during this pullback was light.10x Research stated that due to the very low turnover in the $70,000 to $90,000 range, it warned in November 2025 that if it fell below $93,000, Bitcoin could experience a sharp decline, as there was almost no supply to slow the decline from that range down to around $65,000, and the subsequent downward trend confirmed this judgment. Currently, Bitcoin is once again consolidating in the $60,000 area for about six months, but during this period, the actual distribution of turnover chips has significantly changed, which has a substantial impact on the next movement of this position. The institution will further elaborate on the importance of this level, the role of exchange balances, and the timing of leveraged traders possibly returning to the market.
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