probability

The market maintains a pricing of a 90% probability for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December.

The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on the 29th. The market generally expects the federal funds rate target range to remain unchanged at 3.75%--4.00%, with a probability of maintaining the status quo at over 90%. The wording of the statement and whether Chair Waller's press conference will release more hawkish signals, as well as how this will affect the market's significantly priced probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, have become the focus of attention.Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Credit Agricole all expect a pause in October and a 25 basis point hike in December. Goldman Sachs stated that if rate hikes continue every other meeting through 2027, a hike in March may be considered, but the baseline forecast does not expect a hike in March. Citigroup mentioned that if the stock market continues to weaken, leading to a sharp tightening of financial conditions, the likelihood of a shift to rate cuts will significantly increase. Moody's believes there will not and should not be another rate hike this week. Nomura Securities expects no change in October and stated that while the Federal Reserve guides expectations for a pause, it retains flexibility for a rate hike in December.TD Securities expects no change in October and anticipates two more hikes in December and March. Huatai Securities expects no change in October, with two hawkish voters possibly casting dissenting votes, with the baseline scenario being one rate hike in December this year and two hikes next year. Morgan Stanley expects a 25 basis point hike in both December and March next year. Bank of New York Mellon expects rates to peak slightly above 4.5%. Bank of America believes there is ample reason to raise rates in October; if they remain unchanged, they will only retain one option for a future hike.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays," the option "Tampa Bay Rays" in the sub-market "First 5 Innings Spread -1.5" experienced a drastic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 27.5% an hour ago to the current 12% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

The on-chain data platform DefiLlama announced a collaboration with the prediction market platform Trueo to launch a new prediction market settled with DefiLlama data, covering protocol revenue and the probability of vulnerabilities occurring.Revenue markets include protocol revenues from Hyperliquid, Pump, Aero, Uniswap, Collector Crypt, and Papertrade. Vulnerability markets cover DeFi hacking incidents and the probability of specific protocols being exploited, including whether Aave and Morpho will experience vulnerabilities this month, as well as weekly and monthly markets for the scale of the largest hacking events.Other on-chain indicator markets include the RWA market capitalization and DEX trading volume of Robinhood Chain, as well as who will have a higher TVL this weekend between Solana and Base.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the event "Japan Women's Open: Caty McNally vs Sinja Kraus," the sub-market "Japan Women's Open: Caty McNally vs Sinja Kraus Second Set Winner" saw the winning probability for the option "Caty McNally" experience significant fluctuations, rising from 22% an hour ago to the current 50% (a fluctuation of 28%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 84.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 15.5%.

During the IMF meeting in Bangkok, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh stated that he would not predict the outcomes of the remaining two interest rate meetings this year and was unwilling to disclose potential actions in advance. He said, "This is a new chapter for the Federal Reserve; we no longer do this." Regarding the recent signals from colleagues indicating "no urgency to raise interest rates this month," he neither explicitly supported nor refuted them. Walsh reiterated that the Federal Reserve will achieve price stability and noted that the global economy has largely aligned with central bank expectations since the interest rate hike in September, while describing the recent actions of various central banks as a synchronized tightening of monetary policy in most regions of the world.In September, the Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4%. At that time, most officials expected at least one more rate hike this year. Despite the core CPI rising by 0.33% month-on-month in September, marking a strong increase for the second consecutive month, and the latest producer price data also being robust, Walsh hardly mentioned this week's inflation report and did not significantly attempt to change market expectations for the October meeting. Reports indicated that during his speech, the dollar weakened, and market bets on an interest rate hike in October dropped from about 30% to around 17%.Additionally, Walsh believes that the U.S. is experiencing significant investment growth and holds an optimistic view on economic resilience and the productivity boost brought by AI, but he warned that the development path will be "very bumpy," and the short-term impact of AI on employment remains unclear. DBS Bank macro strategist Wei Liang Chang stated that Walsh reiterated that artificial intelligence will improve productivity in the medium term, which may help ease inflation expectations and alleviate concerns about the Federal Reserve's consecutive rate hikes. Saxo Markets Chief Investment Strategist Charu Chanana noted that Walsh's refusal to commit to another rate hike led to some bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes falling flat, and related comments did not help the dollar following the release of strong inflation data.

According to Bloomberg, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with analysts still leaning bullish, but the speculative market is shifting towards defense, putting pressure on risk appetite. Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 for the first time in nearly a month; affected by the sell-off in the U.S. stock market's AI sector, risk assets retreated, and the bullish sentiment that the cryptocurrency market was trying to rebuild was once again thwarted.Jeff Anderson, head of STS Digital in the U.S., stated that inflation data will "severely impact risk appetite," and the market is entering a quiet period before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with interest rate expectations still uncertain. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, mentioned that in the past 24 hours, the market's pricing of Bitcoin's probability of rising to $100,000 before Christmas has decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 9.7%; long-term bullish bets have quickly retreated, short-term hedging demand has surged, and institutions are reassessing macro risk exposure as the interest rate outlook becomes unclear again.

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 76.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 23.8%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs. Alexander Bublik," the sub-market "Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs. Alexander Bublik" saw the winning probability of the "Alexander Zverev" option experience a sharp fluctuation, plummeting from 65.5% an hour ago to the current 19.5% (a fluctuation of 46%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to Polymarket data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in October has dropped to 17%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has risen to 84%. The trading volume for the related prediction event has reached 32 million dollars.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "Next French Presidential Election" event is currently among the hottest trades on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative funding pool size reaching 1.461 billion dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "Marine Le Pen," with a corresponding winning probability of approximately 43.25%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the event "Power Balance: 2026 Midterm Elections" is currently among the hottest trades on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative pool size reaching 178 million dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "Democratic Party Victory," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 66.5%.

Polymarket Bitcoin 2026 price prediction market trading volume reached 72.6 million USD, with a reference price of approximately 84,950 USD. The market's implied probabilities show that the chances of Bitcoin reaching 90,000 USD, 95,000 USD, and 100,000 USD before 2027 are 73%, 54%, and 39%, respectively.Kalshi Bitcoin year-end closing price prediction market trading volume is approximately 39.5 million USD, with a predicted value of 86,240 USD. Claude Opus 5.5 and ChatGPT-6 Astra's predictions for Bitcoin's price on December 31, 2026, are 91,500 USD and 94,000 USD, respectively.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Japanese Tennis Open: Alcaraz vs. Mitchellson" on Polymarket, the option "Over 2.5" in the sub-market "Total Sets O/U 2.5" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in win rate, soaring from 28% an hour ago to the current 91% (a fluctuation of 63%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The crypto media The Block reported that there are 36 days until the U.S. midterm elections. The cumulative trading volume on the U.S. presidential election market on the prediction market platform Polymarket US has surpassed $545 million, making election-related markets one of the largest by trading volume on the platform.Traders currently assign a 91% probability to the Democratic Party winning the U.S. House of Representatives, up from 73% in May. The aforementioned trading volume and probability are both derived from the U.S. election-related markets on Polymarket US.

PPP market prediction tool monitoring shows that the probability of "ETH reaching $2800 during the remaining period of September" on Polymarket has dropped to 37%, a weekly decrease of 38%; the probability of "ETH reaching $2900 during the remaining period of September" has dropped to 12%, a weekly decrease of 8%.According to the settlement rules, if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick of Binance ETH/USDT reaches or exceeds the specified price within the designated month, the market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". This market settlement is based solely on Binance ETH/USDT price data, and prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are not counted.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of "BTC reaching $87,500 during the remaining period of September" on Polymarket has dropped to 22%, a 9% decrease in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability of reaching $90,000 during the remaining period of September has dropped to 7%, a 6% decrease in 24 hours.According to the settlement rules, the market settles based on the 1-minute K-line of the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. If the highest price of any 1-minute K-line within the specified month reaches or exceeds the price indicated in the title, the market will immediately settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". Prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are not used as the basis for settlement.