signaling

The "Realized Cap Impulse" indicator for Bitcoin has recently ended a continuous 93-day negative state and has turned positive for the first time, marking the longest reversal signal after a capital contraction cycle since the bear market of 2022.This indicator measures the momentum of changes in the realized market capitalization by tracking the changes in realized cap, combined with factors of Bitcoin supply and price, to assess whether the flow of tokens with actual economic significance in the market is driving capital base expansion. The positive shift in the indicator does not merely reflect a price increase but indicates that the flow of funds within the Bitcoin network is changing.Data shows that the indicator broke above the zero axis on August 20 when the BTC price was around $73,000 and has maintained positive values for 8 consecutive days. Currently, the BTC price has risen to about $78,900, an increase of approximately 8% during this period.As of the latest, the indicator reading is 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on August 26. Historical data indicates that similar signals at the end of bear markets have been accompanied by significant rebounds in Bitcoin: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% within a year; after March 2019, it increased about 173% in 90 days; and after January 2023, it rose about 45% in 90 days, with a yearly increase of 104%.However, the realized cap momentum indicator is not an absolute signal of a cycle bottom. Similar positive shifts occurred in early 2018 and 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained upward phase afterward. Analysts believe that the indicator's continued positive value, confirmed by price trends, is more valuable than a single-day breakthrough above the zero axis.

According to Bitcoin News monitoring, there are only 41 blocks left until BIP-110 starts to enforce signaling.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ai posted on the X platform that multiple technical indicators at the monthly level for Bitcoin are releasing bullish signals, suggesting that the current market may have formed a macro bottom. Data shows that the TD Sequential indicator triggered a buy signal on the Bitcoin monthly chart last month. This indicator previously successfully identified the bottom of the bear market in 2022 and is now showing a similar signal again. Additionally, Bitcoin's current price is close to the 50-month simple moving average (SMA). Historical data indicates that since 2014, this long-term moving average has repeatedly become an important support area for Bitcoin and corresponds with multiple market bottoms.Meanwhile, the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) has fallen back to around -71. The last time this indicator reached a similar level was in June of this year, when Bitcoin's price briefly dropped to $57,000. Historically, extreme low levels of CMO often coincide with market bottom areas. Analysts believe that Bitcoin may still oscillate in the range of $60,000 to $67,000 in the short term, but the TD Sequential buy signal, 50-month moving average support, and CMO oversold condition together indicate that a long-term cycle bottom may have formed. The market will focus on whether subsequent prices can break through the oscillation range to confirm a new upward trend.

Michael Saylor posted on the X platform stating that BIP-110 signaling was voluntary before block 961,632. From block 961,632 to 963,647, its software will reject every block that does not signal.Any "100% signaling" displayed during this window reflects this rule, rather than voluntary support from miners or Bitcoin consensus.

The Bitcoin BIP-110 mandatory signaling window will open at block 961632, expected around August 9, 2026. As of the on-chain height of 959842, there are about 1790 blocks remaining until that block, and the support rate for BIP-110 signaling is approximately 2.64%.BIP-110's formal name is Reduced Data Temporary Softfork, which proposes to limit the size of certain data fields in Bitcoin transactions, mainly targeting Ordinals type inscriptions, large OP_RETURN payloads, and similar high data volume uses. If activated, the restrictions will take effect at block 965664 and will automatically expire after 52416 blocks, approximately one year later.Current signaling support mainly comes from Ocean, independent miners, and small operators, while major mining pools such as Foundry, Antpool, ViaBTC, and F2pool have not yet shifted to support it. Foundry has requested clients to vote based on average hash power; only if "support" votes exceed 51% of the participating weighted hash power will the pool switch all blocks to support signaling. If the current signaling level persists until block 961632, nodes executing BIP-110 will reject blocks that do not emit version bit 4 signals and will follow the minority of blocks that do emit signals. Non-upgraded nodes will continue to accept both signaling and non-signaling blocks and will follow the chain with the highest accumulated proof of work.

According to market news, Goldman Sachs reported on July 18 that the Dark Side of the Moon released the Kimi K3 model, with 28 trillion parameters, surpassing Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol on the Arena.ai programming leaderboard, reaching a new high for Chinese models with an API pricing of $2.3 per million tokens. Two days after the release, Zhiyu fell by 28%, MiniMax dropped by 16%, the Nasdaq 100 index futures fell by more than 1.8%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has cumulatively dropped by more than 18% from its peak.Goldman Sachs believes that Kimi K3 marks a turning point: a Chinese laboratory that cannot match the largest pre-trained computing power in the West has rapidly narrowed the gap with top American models through architectural innovation and reinforcement learning, proving that "scaling" is no longer the only winning path. Goldman Sachs warns that the "era of computing power expansion" may be coming to an end, and the investment logic for AI infrastructure built around "the more computing power, the better" needs to be rewritten. Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating on MiniMax and a neutral rating on Zhiyu. Future attention will focus on the intensive release of 20-50 trillion parameter models such as Zhiyu GLM, Alibaba Qwen, and MiniMax M3 Pro.

Glassnode stated that the Altcoin Cycle Signal has re-entered the "Altcoin Season" range. Typically, Altcoin Season means that altcoins rise while Bitcoin remains strong, but this time the situation is different. After nearly two years of continuous selling, the selling pressure in the altcoin market is gradually diminishing, while Bitcoin has experienced a significant pullback. Currently, the return of this signal to the Altcoin Season range is primarily driven by Bitcoin's weakness, rather than a comprehensive strength in altcoins.

According to BIT analysis, during the bull market from 2020 to 2021, smart contract platforms were widely expected to reshape some of the infrastructure and business processes in the traditional financial system. However, the high expectations did not materialize, and Ethereum's market share in the digital asset ecosystem has continued to decline. Currently, Ethereum's market share has once again fallen below 10%, shrinking by more than half compared to two years ago.This shows that ETH's relative position in the crypto market continues to decline. For investors with heavy ETH holdings, this trend is worth noting. The continuous decline in ETH's market share indicates that funds are flowing towards other narratives or ecosystems. If this trend continues, ETH may still face pressure and maintain a relatively weak position.

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel stated that Bitcoin's net flow has shifted from positive to negative since early March, peaking at a strong outflow of -300,000 BTC on March 25, and as of today, it remains in a net outflow state of -98,000 BTC.During the same period, the BTC reserves on trading platforms decreased from 2.786 million to 2.681 million, declining for seven consecutive weeks, with a total reduction of over 105,000 BTC. There was no panic inflow during the price correction in April, indicating that tokens continue to be held by long-term holders. The current pattern is interpreted as a synchronized accumulation signal, and there is a need to be cautious of the potential risk of net flow returning to positive territory.

According to Decrypt, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins launched the first episode of the official podcast "Material Matters," collaborating with commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda to publicly express a pro-innovation regulatory stance.Atkins stated that the U.S. should become the global destination for innovation and characterized the current situation as "a significant turning point for the U.S. market." Uyeda criticized the Gensler era SEC for deviating from its core responsibilities, while Peirce emphasized that regulation should be open to innovators.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the current Bitcoin market is entering an early stabilization phase, with long-term holding behavior gradually strengthening, indicating that the market structure may be undergoing a change.Data shows that since October, the number of BTC held for over one year has increased from about 12 million to approximately 12.4 million. Although the increase is still moderate, it reflects a shift in market behavior towards long-term holding. Since mid-December, the 30-day change has consistently remained positive, indicating that investors are more inclined to continue holding rather than distributing their assets. Darkfost pointed out that this change typically signifies a transition from a speculation-dominated phase to a stronger long-term conviction phase. Historically, the proportion of long-term holdings usually declines significantly at market peaks and gradually rises during bear markets, so the current trend can be seen as an early stabilization signal for the market. However, he also emphasized that this indicator belongs to a long-term dimension and typically requires a longer time to form a clear trend, and we are still in the early stages.

Santiment indicates that market trends often go against public expectations, "such a high level of FUD sentiment is a positive signal, suggesting that the market is likely to improve in the near future."

Typically, an increase in Bitcoin balances on exchanges is seen as a potential selling pressure signal, indicating that investors may be preparing to sell assets or use them as margin for derivatives trading, both of which usually exacerbate price volatility.

Before the release of the US CPI data, the volatility of BTC and ETH has weakened. Derivatives indicators show a marginal improvement in market sentiment. Although leverage levels have been significantly cleaned up, funding rates have turned positive, and institutional basis has rebounded, traders are still paying a premium for downside protection in the short term.Currently, Bitcoin may record its fourth consecutive weekly decline, marking the longest losing streak since mid-November last year. At the same time, the slowdown in trading activity and the decline in volatility are also suppressing overall trading volume. In the derivatives market, the proportion of call option trading volume in the Bitcoin options market has risen to 65%, but the implied volatility term structure remains in a short-term inverted state, indicating that traders are still paying a high "panic premium" for immediate downside protection.

According to Jinshi reports, the US Dollar Index DXY fell more than 50 points in the short term, as Trump signaled a weakening of the dollar.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have fallen again, with the BTC price giving back all of last week's gains that rose to $98,000. This cryptocurrency market sell-off is in line with the movements of U.S. stock index futures, with futures linked to the Nasdaq 100 index dropping more than 1.9%, and S&P 500 index futures falling 1.6%.Additionally, the open interest in Bitcoin futures remains stable, and the funding rates for most major tokens are still positive, while the futures open interest (OI) for DOGE, ZEC, and ADA has seen significant declines, indicating capital outflows. On some derivatives platforms, traders are continuously pricing bearish options for BTC and ETH higher than bullish options, with traders pricing the likelihood of BTC falling below $80,000 at 30%.

CryptoQuant's analysis indicates that the Bitcoin on-chain metric BCMI continues to decline, currently falling below the equilibrium value but still above the historical bottom region. Analysts believe this suggests that the market is not only experiencing a cooling phase but is undergoing a structural reset through price and on-chain momentum.Historical data shows that the cycle bottoms in 2019 and 2023 formed when BCMI reached the range of 0.25-0.35. From a data perspective, the current market may be transitioning into a bear market phase rather than simply a pullback, with the market in a downward transition phase rather than a complete reset state.

Glassnode posted on platform X that Bitcoin has fallen below the 0.75 cost basis percentile, a level that historically marks the beginning of bear market territory. Across multiple cycles, reclaiming and maintaining above this level has been key to restoring a bullish pattern. Bulls will hope to see the price regain this level.