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Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang stated that the hawkish remarks made by Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference have shifted the market's focus from whether there will be a rate hike in September to the possibility that the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a longer period before inflation clearly falls back to the 2% target, and even retain the option for further tightening of policies.Lewis Huang pointed out that if subsequent CPI, PCE, and employment data continue to be strong, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar index may remain strong, putting continued pressure on gold from the dual forces of rising real interest rates and a strengthening dollar, which may also amplify the volatility of high-valuation tech stocks like the Nasdaq 100.Conversely, if inflation significantly cools and the labor market weakens, the market may lower its rate hike expectations, leading to a decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, providing support for gold and growth stocks.He added that besides the Federal Reserve's policy statements, traders should also pay attention to whether the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is influenced by factors such as fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and rising term premiums.Before and after the release of major data, it is recommended to moderately control leverage and assess market direction based on the interrelationship between the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, gold, and stock indices.

Nick Timiraos, the "Fed Whisperer," stated that Fed Chair Waller has quelled some concerns about his strategy to combat inflation, but has also laid the groundwork for a larger test that may come in three weeks. If the Fed raises interest rates, it could anger the White House just weeks before the midterm elections. If they hold steady, it may reignite the doubts that Waller's remarks have calmed.Two points from Waller's speech on Friday particularly suggest that the Fed may raise rates next month. The first point is that Waller finds it difficult to describe the current financial conditions as restrictive. The second point is that the relatively positive inflation data over the summer has not convinced him that the underlying trend is improving. The Fed's default choice before Friday was to hold steady unless the data was strong enough to warrant action.Former Fed Vice Chair Cohen stated that Waller's remarks have reversed this logic. "He has changed the original assumption; it is now that they will raise rates unless the data shows it is unnecessary." This means that the final decision will depend on changes in the situation before the September meeting, especially the August CPI released on September 11. Cohen stated that if the data indicates that action is unnecessary, the Fed should not raise rates; if the data is strong, it could weaken the argument that inflation is moving back toward the Fed's 2% target.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, "Hyperliquid's largest long position" took advantage of the spike to increase its long position by 1,000 BTC (approximately 79 million USD). Today, it also increased its long position by 28,000 ETH, with an average opening price of 78,780 USD for BTC and an average opening price of 2,490 USD for ETH.

According to Gate market data, since Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech, spot gold and silver have significantly retreated in the short term. Gold rebounded slightly after falling about 100 dollars from its high, reaching a low of 4530 dollars/ounce and currently reported at 4560 dollars/ounce; silver plummeted over 1 dollar during the day, hitting a low of 68.1 dollars/ounce and currently reported at 69.0 dollars/ounce.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently stable around $80,000, with traders focusing on Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. The annual seminar hosted by the Kansas City Fed opened on Wednesday, and Walsh will speak on Friday morning. Current inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, and long-term borrowing costs are near multi-year highs, with the Fed maintaining the benchmark interest rate range at 3.5%-3.75% in recent months.Mark Connors, Chief Investment Officer of Risk Dimensions, expects Walsh to keep the option of raising interest rates but not to raise rates before the midterm elections. The July PCE inflation rate reached 3.7%, partly driven by rising energy prices following the Iran war. Samir Kerbage, Chief Investment Officer of Hashdex, stated that Bitcoin does not directly respond to the September interest rate decision but follows global liquidity and long-end yield curve trends, similar to the drivers of gold. Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced an increase in long-term Treasury bond purchases after the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high, which pushed Bitcoin higher; Kerbage described this surge as "primarily a liquidity event."This year's Jackson Hole meeting focuses on financial innovation, payments, and policy, with stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and faster settlement systems becoming the discussion highlights. Kerbage believes that if Walsh views these technologies as part of the financial system rather than risks to be curtailed, the impact could extend beyond Bitcoin, with smart contract networks and protocols handling tokenized payments and settlements benefiting more directly from this shift.

Chief Economist Fu Peng of New Fire Group published an article pointing out that although Nvidia's latest financial report has exceeded expectations for 15 consecutive quarters, the market has reacted lukewarmly to the financial data itself. Indicators such as stock price and options volatility show that market investors are currently more concerned about whether the free cash flow of the future index center can be smoothly delivered, and how long the momentum of AI growth can be maintained. These issues weigh more heavily than the performance of a single quarter's financial report, so even if this performance exceeds Wall Street's expectations by a few points, it does not change the denominator of the valuation.Fu Peng believes that Jensen Huang's statement during the conference call clearly indicated that "the inflection point for AI has arrived," which is essentially to reassure the market, aiming to strengthen market confidence in the formation of a closed-loop AI industry chain and alleviate concerns about over-investment. Investors should observe how long it takes for the market to digest this round of confidence boost, and how long the elevated expectations brought by Jensen Huang will last before fading. If the sentiment fades quickly, it indicates that the current typical market mentality is "no rabbit, no hawk," and the impact of manufacturers repeatedly reinforcing confidence in the market is gradually weakening, which can be observed from the duration of market fluctuations after each conference call.

Gold prices rose slightly on Thursday due to the depreciation of the dollar and ongoing concerns about the U.S. budget deficit. OANDA analyst Kelvin Wong stated that these factors support gold prices in the medium term. The market is paying attention to the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Waller to understand the direction of monetary policy.The U.S. Treasury has expanded the scale of long-term bond purchases, raising concerns about the depreciation of the dollar, and gold prices rose more than 5% last week. In addition, the Prime Minister of Qatar will visit Tehran to restart diplomatic mediation.

According to Bloomberg, DeepSeek announced the suspension of its second round of financing and verbally notified some potential investors that it would not sign investment agreements as expected. This suspension partly stems from founder Liang Wenfeng's dissatisfaction with the leak of a 4-hour internal transcript during its first financing deal, where he made 52 statements in an investor meeting regarding DeepSeek's organizational culture, open-source logic, technology roadmap, and views on the competitive landscape of the industry. The nearly 4-hour meeting record recently went viral on social media, including statements such as "The biggest gap between China and the U.S. in AI is computing power resources." Both DeepSeek and Liang Wenfeng have not confirmed the authenticity of the leaked record.DeepSeek stated that it may still choose to resume the transaction process in the future and has begun preparations for an initial public offering, with the IPO potentially being filed as early as this year.DeepSeek completed its first round of external financing in June 2026, raising over 50 billion yuan, approximately 7.4 billion dollars, with a post-investment valuation of about 50-59 billion dollars. It adopted a special structure, with most funds entering a limited partnership managed by Liang Wenfeng, where investors have no voting rights and are locked in for 5 years. Liang Wenfeng himself contributed about 20 billion yuan as the largest contributor, with participation from Tencent, CATL, JD.com, NetEase, and the Chinese National AI Fund. DeepSeek subsequently initiated discussions for its second round of financing in mid-July, targeting a valuation of about 71 billion dollars.

According to CNBC, the American prediction market platform Kalshi stated that a teleprompter operator is under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for allegedly trading prediction contracts related to public speeches by President Trump.

According to Jinshi, as the situation between the U.S. and Iran escalates again due to the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. President Trump stated that he will deliver a national address at 9 PM on July 14 (9 AM on July 15 Beijing time). Trump did not specify the content of the speech, but this statement indicates that the war with Iran is actually accelerating again, whereas both sides were supposed to enter negotiations after the signing of the memorandum of understanding.

Japan's 105th Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will deliver a speech via video at the "WebX2026" conference.WebX2026 will be held in Tokyo from July 13 to 14, 2026.

According to Jinshi reports, Chris Turner of ING stated in a report that if Federal Reserve Chairman Waller focuses on price stability during his speech at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, the dollar should remain strong. Waller emphasized the necessity of bringing the inflation rate back to the 2% target during his first meeting after taking office as Federal Reserve Chairman in June. Turner expects that, influenced by Waller's speech, the dollar index may rise to the range of 101.7-101.8.

Wintermute released its weekly market report, stating that as of the week ending June 15, the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, along with CPI data, has boosted market risk appetite. Wintermute believes that the risk-reward ratio for Bitcoin at just over $60,000 is quite attractive; each sell-off eliminates weak holders, leaving a group with higher quality holdings and stronger conviction. However, this does not mean that a bottom has been established. Before the situation truly improves, it is not impossible to fall into the $50,000 range. Currently, the position structure has been somewhat cleared, and net selling pressure has eased. What really needs attention is the flow of funds, rather than prices or news headlines.The real turning point in the last cycle was the continuous growth of inflows into ETFs and stablecoins, and there are currently no signs of this. Therefore, blindly chasing any upward trend is futile. In the short term, Waller's speech on Wednesday is key. If dovish sentiment indicates a softening of core rates and a drop in oil prices, the market will welcome good news; if hawkish sentiment suggests rates rising to 4.2%, the good news will end. Besides that, the agreement signed between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland on Friday is the truly important event.

According to Jinshi News, Capital Economics believes that the Federal Reserve will likely remain on hold this week. The agency's North America Chief Economist Stephen Brown speculates that Waller's remarks may be more hawkish than expected, and the market risk lies in communication errors or changes in Waller's stance. Brown warns that if Waller is constrained by Trump, a dovish tone could raise concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and push up long-term bond yields. He also stated that there is a high possibility of two "insurance rate hikes" in December and early next year.