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Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The direction of Bitcoin awaits the determination of CPI, with the lower edge of $81,000 likely to be tested first

Bitcoin has retreated from around $86,000 at the beginning of October, fluctuating in the range of $81,000 to $84,000 in recent days, while the US dollar has strengthened and US Treasury yields remain high. Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the likelihood of breaking down from the fluctuation range is greater.The ISM services price index rose to 74.0 in September, the highest since July 2022, and the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan rose to 4.7% in October. The rise in price components and inflation expectations indicates that the probability of CPI exceeding expectations this Thursday is not low; if this materializes, the pricing for interest rate hikes at the end of the year will be further strengthened, and the lower bound of $81,000 will be tested first. Only if CPI is below expectations will the breakthrough of the upper bound of $84,000 have sustainability.The recent decline in chip stocks is mainly due to the repricing of AI capital expenditures and hardware profit expectations. The retracement of Bitcoin is smaller, indicating that its pricing is more aligned with macro liquidity, and its correlation with the AI narrative is weakening; however, this divergence is temporary. Once the US dollar and long-term interest rates regain dominance in pricing, the linkage will quickly strengthen, with the CPI announcement on Thursday evening serving as a recent testing window.

hot_img The Shanghai court in China analyzes the criminal responsibility determination in cases of "traffic diversion" fraud involving virtual currency, which may constitute complicity in fraud or illegal use of information networks

The Shanghai Intermediate People's Court has published typical cases, analyzing whether "traffic personnel" involved in telecommunications network fraud related to virtual currencies constitute accomplices in fraud. From February 2022 to April 2023, the defendants, for the purpose of profit, assisted upstream fraudulent activities by "draining traffic," using online virtual phone software to lure victims into related scam groups, ultimately causing 30 victims to be defrauded of more than 2.34 million yuan (the same currency hereafter) by an overseas fraudulent organization. The overseas fraudulent organization transferred funds into the suspects' trading accounts via virtual currency.The Shanghai First Intermediate People's Court pointed out that in telecommunications network fraud cases, "traffic personnel" may constitute accomplices in fraud or illegal use of information networks depending on specific circumstances. The key lies in determining whether they have formed a clear criminal intent connection with the upstream fraudulent organization and whether there is stable cooperation and division of labor. In judicial practice, when assessing the criminal responsibility of "traffic personnel," factors such as their role in the criminal chain, the degree of organizational management, connections with upstream criminals, methods of profit, and abnormal behavior should be comprehensively considered. Actions that only provide general online services and do not form a conspiracy to commit fraud should be distinguished from "draining" actions that knowingly participate in the implementation of fraud.

HSBC requires some existing investment clients in the mainland to submit a source of funds declaration; failure to submit in a timely manner may result in service termination

According to the Daily Economic News, following the requirement to confirm that the source of funds for new account openings comes from legal overseas channels, some banks in Hong Kong have begun to initiate a source of funds declaration process for certain existing mainland investment clients. HSBC Hong Kong has recently started notifying some existing mainland investment clients, requiring them to submit the "Declaration for Opening/Maintaining Accounts" through the HSBC Hong Kong App by September 12 and to update their contact information.The declaration includes confirming that the funds for investment activities come from legal sources outside mainland China, and that the bank may disclose personal information at the request of law enforcement or regulatory agencies. The notice also mentioned that if the declaration is not submitted by August 20, investment-related services may be suspended; if it is still not submitted by September 12, investment-related services may be terminated.An HSBC spokesperson responded that they will follow relevant regulatory requirements when managing investment client relationships, thus inviting relevant mainland Chinese investors to provide self-declarations and confirm that the information provided in their "Know Your Customer" and "Customer Due Diligence" processes is current and valid, which helps to continuously provide uninterrupted services to clients. HSBC emphasized that this latest declaration requirement applies only to investment service clients.
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