analysis

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler released a weekly analysis indicating that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has recently risen to about 4.7%, approaching the upper limit of the range over the past five years. The high interest rate environment is tightening financial conditions, increasing financing costs and asset discount rates, and putting more pressure on risk assets. Currently, the futures market expects a roughly 38% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its next meeting, but a survey of 104 economists by Reuters generally expects rates to remain unchanged.In terms of the Bitcoin market, Axel Adler pointed out that BTC rebounded about 11% from a low of around $59,000 in June to nearly $66,000, but has now fallen back to about $64,300. The market is currently facing four potential risks: first, volatility has significantly compressed, with actual volatility in July dropping 31%, falling to the 8th percentile of the historical range, suggesting that more extreme market movements may occur; second, demand in the U.S. spot market remains weak, trading at a discount for about two and a half months, with no sustained inflow of funds; third, there is insufficient buying liquidity in the market, with stablecoins continuously flowing out of exchanges and new fund activity nearing annual lows; fourth, investors are still realizing losses, and some positions are choosing to exit during the profit recovery phase, putting pressure on prices.Additionally, Adler mentioned that MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has not continued to make large-scale Bitcoin purchases recently, but instead published a lengthy article recommending 38 books on civilization, currency, energy, and technological development, attempting to construct a theoretical framework for Bitcoin as a result of long-term financial evolution. Adler believes that the market is currently still in a critical observation phase, requiring attention to changes in liquidity, the recovery of U.S. demand, and whether investor behavior improves.

According to market data, the current on-chain total value of the tokenized stock market has approached 2 billion dollars, with over 471,000 on-chain holders. The report selected four assets—NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla—that have effective two-way order books across various testing platforms for horizontal comparison.The research results show that Bitget rToken achieved optimal execution performance in both the $10,000 and $50,000 order tests, presenting the most balanced order book liquidity within a price range of ±50 basis points. Among them, the slippage for the $50,000 order was 58% lower than that of other tokenized stock products. This is mainly attributed to Bitget rToken's 1:1 alignment with the liquidity of traditional markets such as the NYSE and NASDAQ, providing more efficient execution for large transactions.

The overall profitability status of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data shows that it is still insufficient to confirm that a new bull market has begun, and there remains a risk of another decline. CryptoQuant data shows that the Bitcoin Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This indicator represents the proportion of BTC supply in the current market where the price is above the holding cost, which has significantly rebounded from the low of 46.2% on June 30, 2026, and is currently close to 60%.However, the recovery of the profitable supply ratio still requires continuous verification. Historical cycles show that the true end of a bear market usually requires two conditions to be met simultaneously: first, the 30-day simple moving average of the Long-Term Holder Profit and Loss Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must remain above 1 for an extended period without falling below it; second, the Bitcoin Supply in Profit must stabilize above 64%. Analysts indicate that this cycle has previously experienced a "false breakout." From April 28 to June 1 of this year, the average LTH-SOPR was above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the profitable supply ratio once rose to 67%, but the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the Long-Term Holder 30-day SMA indicator has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, which remains an important risk signal for assessing the strength of market recovery. Although the BTC profitable supply ratio is improving, the market needs further confirmation of the behavior of long-term holders and changes in the profit structure to determine whether the current rebound truly marks the beginning of a new upward cycle.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that there has been a noticeable increase in on-chain activity from the oldest group of Bitcoin holders recently. Data shows that the daily UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) movement for BTC holders with holding periods of 5 to 7 years and 7 to 10 years has exceeded 5000 BTC multiple times.Darkfost pointed out that the spending of UTXOs does not necessarily mean selling. Long-term holders typically move Bitcoin for two main reasons: one is for security considerations, such as changing wallet addresses which leads to the transfer of UTXOs from the original address; the other is to sell assets. However, current on-chain data does not show a significant flow of funds to exchanges, indicating that these long-term holders are not currently engaging in large-scale selling of BTC. It is noteworthy that this behavior occurs as Bitcoin tests the $60,000 mark again, similar to market trends observed from February to March this year. The market will continue to monitor whether the activities of long-term holders will further impact the supply and demand dynamics of BTC.

A report jointly released by the Bitcoin collateral lending platform CoinRabbit and the computing power platform GoMining points out that managing Bitcoin is more important than mining it. As the block reward drops to 3.125 BTC and the overall network difficulty approaches historical highs, low electricity prices and high uptime only constitute a survival baseline. What truly differentiates mining companies is the method of handling Bitcoin after it is mined.The report suggests that mining companies are shifting from direct sales to collateralized lending to cover recurring expenses such as electricity, custody, and labor. This approach retains exposure to holding Bitcoin while generating cash flow, avoids taxable sales, and preserves the deduction space for operating expenses. The trade-off is that mining companies simultaneously bear the dual risks of price and liquidation when Bitcoin prices decline.Jeremy Dreier, Chief Business Development Officer of GoMining, stated that the miners who can succeed after the halving are those who operate efficiently and have set aside cash in advance for this purpose. The current decline in Bitcoin prices has actually lowered the cost of increasing computing power, creating a window of opportunity for investing in expanding mining machines.

According to analysis by XWIN Japan, CryptoQuant data shows that although there are occasional spikes in daily Bitcoin deposits, Binance's 30-day net flow tends to balance out, with withdrawals essentially offsetting deposits. This means that large deposits have not translated into sustained net inflows of funds—incoming BTC is either absorbed by market buying or withdrawn for long-term custody.Analysts point out that neutral or negative net flows typically reflect holding behavior rather than a willingness to sell. Current data suggests that investors may be more inclined to use Binance for liquidity rather than preparing for large-scale sell-offs. Although short-term spikes in deposits may still lead to price volatility, the overall picture does not indicate sustained selling pressure.

On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that this cycle is significantly different from the past due to the influx of traditional institutional funds brought in by the BTC spot ETF. He pointed out that the net flow of the ETF essentially records the subscription and redemption results of authorized participants (AP) in the primary market. It will only translate into net inflows or outflows in the data when the selling pressure in the secondary market continues to push the ETF price away from its net asset value and exceeds the arbitrage cost line.Murphy analyzed the data from glassnode and noted that from January to February, the market showed "high trading volume + slight net outflow," indicating that although there was obvious panic selling at that time, there was still a large amount of buying support. In contrast, from May to July, the market exhibited "low trading volume + significant net outflow." The more core signal was not a significant increase in selling pressure, but rather the absence of marginal buying, leading to the ETF consistently trading at a discount and resulting in AP redemptions.He believes that this stage is more likely to reflect a second round of "surrender" at the institutional level, which typically belongs to the tail-end clearing pattern of the market, and judges that this may provide new layout opportunities for retail investors, although the duration cannot be clearly determined by the current data.

According to a report by CryptoSlate, BitMine's Ethereum staking and validation business heavily relies on the third-party operator Ethereum Tower. According to the relevant management service agreement, Ethereum Tower holds an irrevocable interest of 2% in MAVAN, and the initial term of the agreement lasts for up to 10 years; if BitMine terminates the cooperation early under non-specific default circumstances, the other party can still choose to continue receiving revenue sharing for the remaining term or receive a one-time compensation according to a formula.Documents show that in the three months ending May 31, 2026, BitMine's staking and validation business revenue was $45.743 million, accounting for 98.3% of total revenue of $46.535 million. During the same period, the company held approximately 5.4169 million ETH, valued at about $10.856 billion, of which approximately 4.7187 million had been used for staking. The report suggests that this means BitMine's revenue performance is not only dependent on Ethereum staking returns but is also significantly constrained by third-party management relationships and potential termination costs.

According to BIT analysis, as the demand for call options accelerates, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has both rebounded, indicating that the quiet trading environment of summer may be nearing its end. Recently, there have been several large transactions of call options in the market.Meanwhile, after Bitcoin's implied volatility fell from 44% to 31%, it has now rebounded to 36%, further reflecting that market bullish sentiment is warming up. Although August and September are typically seasonally weak months, the rebound in call option demand and implied volatility is still expected to provide some support for Bitcoin prices. At the beginning of summer, BIT tended to short volatility, anticipating that the market would enter a consolidation phase. However, as option positions and overall market sentiment have both become more positive, BIT adjusted this judgment last week.

According to on-chain research conducted by Dune Analytics for the DEX aggregator 1inch, an average of 85% of concentrated liquidity funds in decentralized exchanges were underutilized in the first half of 2026, with 29.5% completely outside the active price range, resulting in approximately $542 million in idle funds each week.Dune estimates that liquidity providers outside the range lose about $150 million in fee income annually. The study covers around 200 of the most active pools on Uniswap v3, PancakeSwap v3, Aerodrome Slipstream, and Uniswap v4, spanning seven chains with a total of 26 weekly snapshots, with an average TVL of approximately $1.84 billion.Data shows that idle funds are mainly concentrated in personal wallets, and automated management tools and bots tend to keep positions within the range. On Base Uniswap v3, personal accounts account for 82% of idle funds. About one-third of idle funds have not been adjusted for over 90 days. Dune attributes the main cause of idleness to asset pairs and their volatility rather than the trading platform, even though about 30% of stablecoin pairs are also outside the range.

According to a report by The Block, a study commissioned by 1inch and conducted by Dune found that approximately 85% of concentrated liquidity in decentralized exchanges such as Uniswap v3, Uniswap v4, PancakeSwap v3, and Aerodrome Slipstream is not effectively utilized. The research analyzed the performance of nearly 200 active liquidity pools across 7 chains in 26 weekly snapshots, tracking an average liquidity of about $1.84 billion per week, of which approximately $1.6 billion is in an inefficient state.Specifically, on the Uniswap v3 platform, among the liquidity that has deviated from the market-making price range, 44.5% has not been adjusted for more than 90 days, making it the platform with the highest proportion in this study; in contrast, Aerodrome has a ratio of about 20%, with 58% of idle funds having been adjusted within the last 30 days.Additionally, only about 35% of idle funds are located within 5% of the market price, approximately 43% deviate from the market price by more than 25%, and another 17% deviate by more than 100%. In terms of fund size, positions exceeding $1 million hold about 47% of idle funds, amounting to approximately $260 million.

According to the official announcement, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast today at 20:00 titled "Ceasefire Ended, Oil Prices Soaring Above 75, STRATEGY's First Loss in Selling Coins: Can BTC's Macroeconomic Narrative Hold Up?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Huabai Blockchain, Honest Little Taoist, Crypto.0824, and OxPink will gather in the live broadcast room to engage in in-depth discussions on recent market hotspots such as the repeated situation in the Middle East and the strong upward trend of international oil prices. They will also analyze BTC's future trends and opportunities and risk management strategies for crypto asset allocation in conjunction with expectations of Federal Reserve policies, providing investors with multi-dimensional market observations and trading ideas.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a live broadcast today at 20:30 on the theme "The First Major Test of AI Chip Faith: SK Hynix ADR Three-Day Tour, From a Surge of 13% to a Circuit Breaker in Korean Stocks."At that time, crypto KOLs such as MEJ, 77, the Sincere Little Taoist, and Qiwen will be invited to attend, discussing the severe fluctuations in the stock price of SK Hynix ADR after its listing, whether the high valuation logic of the AI chip sector will face its first pressure test, and exploring future investment opportunities in the AI computing power industry chain. They will also analyze the next stage of trading themes in the AI narrative in conjunction with global tech stock trends and the rotation of funds in the crypto market for investors.

According to Cointelegraph, the launch of Robinhood's Layer 2 network, Robinhood Chain, has boosted market sentiment towards Ethereum. The network uses ETH as its native Gas token, and approximately $141 million worth of ETH has been bridged to the chain.Reports indicate that there are now over 500,000 wallet addresses holding ETH on the network. In the past 24 hours, the DEX trading volume on Robinhood Chain reached $877.56 million, surpassing Ethereum L1 and competitor Base. As an on-chain extension of the traditional financial trading platform Robinhood, it offers tokenized stock services to customers in 120 countries, further strengthening the EVM-compatible ecosystem.

According to CoinDesk, the stablecoin market experienced its largest correction in recent years in June, with a total market value decrease of $7.7 billion, marking the largest monthly decline since the Terra-Luna collapse in May 2022.Since the peak in May, the stablecoin market has shrunk by approximately $10 billion, with two major stablecoin issuers being the main driving factors behind this round of correction: the market value of USDT issued by Tether has dropped from about $190 billion in May to $184 billion, a decrease of about $6 billion; USDC issued by Circle has fallen from a high of nearly $80 billion in March 2026 to about $73 billion, shrinking by about $7 billion.However, compared to the cumulative decline of over 26% in the stablecoin market during the crypto winter of 2022, this round of adjustment is still relatively mild. Wall Street institutions remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of stablecoins, with Citigroup previously estimating that the global stablecoin market could reach $1.9 trillion under a baseline scenario by 2030, and could rise to $4 trillion under an optimistic scenario.

According to CoinDesk, in just the month of June, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $4 billion, led by BlackRock's IBIT, as funds shifted towards opportunities in AI trading and the SpaceX IPO. Bitcoin fell about 14% in the second quarter, dropping below $60,000, marking its third consecutive quarter of losses. However, this outflow pales in comparison to the $2 trillion private credit market. Redemption requests in private credit reached $15.6 billion in the second quarter, with 10 out of 16 business development companies exceeding the 5% quarterly cap, and most investors receiving only partial payouts. Fitch expects redemptions to continue in the coming months, and unmet requests will keep several companies under pressure.Bitcoin ETFs have strong liquidity, and outflows directly impact BTC prices; in contrast, private credit BDCs are illiquid long-term instruments. The simultaneous redemptions of both reflect widespread market concerns about liquidity and risk. The energy market is also sending signals of risk aversion, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1983. QCP Capital summarized: "Different sectors, same pattern: the market's buffer space is narrowing." It pointed out that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has bottomed out, Strategy has sold BTC for the first time to pay dividends, and private credit redemptions have surpassed thresholds, all indicating that risk assets face a more challenging environment.

Blockchain analysis company Elliptic announced that it has received a strategic investment from Circle Ventures. Previously, the company completed a $120 million Series D funding round in May this year, led by One Peak, with participation from Nasdaq Ventures, Deutsche Bank, and the British Business Bank.At the same time, Circle officially joined Elliptic's Agentic Design Partner Program, which brings together infrastructure providers, compliance agencies, and technology teams to collaboratively develop compliance solutions for AI agents. Elliptic pointed out that AI agents are different from traditional bots, as they can autonomously set goals and make independent decisions. Their operational speed and scale have far exceeded the carrying capacity of human compliance systems, necessitating specialized solutions to address this.