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According to Jinshi News, JPMorgan Chase expects that the U.S. Treasury will avoid making adjustments that could imply an expansion of bond issuance when it announces its quarterly refinancing plan next week, in order to avoid disturbing the bond market before the midterm elections in November.JPMorgan Chase also anticipates a funding gap of $3.7 trillion over the next four fiscal years, and officials should adjust the long-term guidance on auction sizes to achieve the Treasury's goal of "prudent debt management."

According to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with "maintaining rates but leaning hawkish" (probability of 50%) as the baseline scenario, which could lead to the S&P 500 index remaining flat or declining by 0.5%. Meanwhile, "maintaining rates but leaning dovish" (probability of 28%) is seen as the most favorable scenario for the market, potentially driving the index up by as much as 1%. A 25 basis point rate hike (probability of 20%) could result in the S&P 500 index declining by 1.5% to 2%.

According to Jinshi News, Hirofumi Suzuki, the chief foreign exchange strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the speech by Fed Chair Waller could push the USD/JPY exchange rate up to the 164 yen level. If this situation occurs, given that Japanese financial authorities have already intensified warnings, the possibility of foreign exchange intervention will significantly increase.If the yen continues to depreciate after the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on Friday, this could become an opportunity to trigger intervention.

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are collaborating to build a shared tokenized deposit network, operated by The Clearing House, a payment company jointly owned by large banks. The plan is to convert commercial deposits into tokens that can be transferred around the clock between member banks, with a target launch in the first half of 2027.The first users of the network will be multinational corporations, with a product range that includes programmable treasury, real-time liquidity management, and cross-border payments. The Clearing House CEO David Watson stated that this project is a significant initiative for banks. JPMorgan's Kinexys platform currently processes an average daily volume of over $7 billion, having handled a total of over $40 trillion since its launch; Citi Token Services has been operating in the U.S., U.K., Singapore, and Hong Kong, transferring billions of dollars through Citigroup's own network.

According to Jinshi reports, two experts from LGT Asia Private Banking pointed out in a research report that the trading range of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is expected to shift upward and expand to 157 to 165 yen, while the previous range was 155 to 160 yen. The experts stated that this change reflects multiple factors, including the significant interest rate differential between the US and Japan, uncertainty regarding currency intervention, and rising fiscal risks in Japan.

KB Kookmin Bank announced that it will launch a cross-border corporate payment service based on the Kinexys blockchain payment network under JPMorgan in August, becoming the first financial institution in South Korea to apply this network for import and export enterprise settlements.It is reported that the service will initially support USD remittances, covering 10 countries including the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, and is expected to shorten the cross-time zone payment time with regions such as the United States and the Middle East.

According to ChaoXiang Research, Morgan Stanley's stock strategy report on July 20 pointed out that AI-related stocks have faced fierce selling in recent weeks, with the South Korean stock market dropping 25% from its peak, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 20%. Individual stocks like Samsung and Micron have seen declines between 20% and 50%. The report believes that the core driving force behind this round of decline is technical factors and position clearing, with no deterioration in fundamentals. The gap between relative prices and relative earnings trends in semiconductors continues to widen, but the supply-demand tight balance for DRAM and NAND is expected to last until 2028. DRAM spot prices remain high, and Micron has also raised its performance guidance, indicating that supply-demand tightness will last at least until 2027. The RSI of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is nearing the oversold zone, and the accumulated momentum gains for the year have basically been retraced.Morgan Stanley believes that once the oversold signal is confirmed, a rebound window will open, and it suggests that investors gradually position themselves in semiconductors during the summer. The proportion of second-quarter earnings reports exceeding expectations reached 97%, and companies in the S&P 500 that reported better-than-expected earnings outperformed the market by an average of 1.7 percentage points on the day of the report. In terms of allocation, Morgan Stanley has raised its equity allocation from 60% to 65%, increased its Eurozone allocation from 8.7% to 11%, and is overweight in sectors such as semiconductors, mining, capital goods, automotive, insurance, and banking, while underweighting software, business services, and media in the "AI erosion group." Regarding geopolitical conflicts, the report believes that the "buying on dips" strategy since the end of March remains effective.

According to Cointelegraph, Japanese logistics company AZ-COM Maruwa Holdings plans to use the JPYC stablecoin to make payments to approximately 2,300 business partners, potentially becoming the first large-scale enterprise in Japan to use the yen stablecoin JPYC. This stablecoin will be used to pay transportation contractors (including truck drivers) fees and compensation.Since JPYC does not charge transfer fees, using the stablecoin allows for faster and more frequent payments. AZ-COM Maruwa is also considering establishing a partnership with JPYC and plans to invest over 1 billion yen (approximately 6.2 million USD). AZ-COM Maruwa is a medium-sized Japanese logistics company, with major clients including Amazon Japan.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts stated that the recent increase in cash reserves and positive capital inflows into Bitcoin futures for Strategy are "encouraging signs" for Bitcoin's prospects, although the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains unstable.Strategy's dollar reserves have increased from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, covering approximately 20 months of preferred stock dividends. JPMorgan previously indicated that if Strategy could rebuild sufficient dollar reserves to cover two to three years of dividends, it could alleviate market concerns about the possibility of being forced to sell Bitcoin in the future.Regarding ETFs, the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs has been highly volatile in recent weeks, with inflows last week turning into outflows this week. In contrast, the capital flow for leveraged ETFs related to Strategy has remained stable with continuous positive inflows over the past seven weeks. Analysts believe that this buying pressure mainly comes from retail investors, which may support Strategy's stock price and prevent its common stock from falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. Analysts noted that despite the outflows from the spot ETF this week, Bitcoin futures still recorded positive inflows, which is encouraging.

SBI Group, DigiFT, and Startale Group have completed a joint proof of concept, demonstrating the full lifecycle of tokenized securities using the Japanese yen stablecoin JPYSC in an Ethereum testnet environment, including instant settlement for fund subscriptions and automatic on-chain dividend distribution.SBI Group and DigiFT are advancing the tokenization of the SBI Japan High Dividend Equity Fund, which is managed by SBI Asset Management with an asset management scale of approximately $1.3 billion, making it one of Japan's major public equity strategies. The three parties completed two tests, one demonstrating the near-instant settlement of fund subscriptions using JPYSC, and the other automatically calculating and distributing dividends to eligible token holders' wallets via smart contracts after the allocation registration is completed.The three companies plan to explore the integration of tokenized Japanese stocks with institutional DeFi platforms and consider testing use cases such as collateralized lending and on-chain asset management with ecosystem partners like Morpho and Gauntlet.

According to BBX data, yesterday the two flagship institutions on Wall Street released their Q2 2026 financial reports on the same day, forming an important institutional narrative anchor regarding AI infrastructure and digital assets. The core dynamics are as follows:The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: $GS) released its Q2 2026 financial report on July 14, with CEO David Solomon providing the strongest institutional endorsement of AI infrastructure to date during the earnings call: "AI infrastructure is in the early innings of a multi-year investment cycle," and stated that the company expects to finance most of the AI infrastructure development, driving growth in mergers and acquisitions, debt and equity issuance, and lending opportunities. This assessment highly resonates with Goldman’s ongoing positioning in the crypto ecosystem: Q1 2026 13F shows the company holds approximately $700 million in iShares Bitcoin Trust ($IBIT) positions, while simultaneously liquidating all positions in XRP ETF and Solana ETF, and increasing holdings in Circle ($CRCL), Galaxy Digital ($GLXY), and Coinbase ($COIN) stocks; the company applied to the SEC for a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (covered call option structure) on April 14; and on June 12, completed a $75 billion fundraising as the lead underwriter for SpaceX's largest IPO in history. Solomon's "early innings" assertion is a public confirmation that Goldman views AI infrastructure investment and crypto asset allocation as part of the same long-term narrative.JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: $JPM) also released its Q2 2026 financial report on July 14. According to CoinDesk Live Updates, CEO Jamie Dimon identified the rapid construction of AI computing infrastructure as a core driver of corporate investment and financing demand during the earnings call, forming a rare cross-institutional consensus with Goldman and BofA. JPMorgan has previously maintained a cautious stance on crypto regulation, but its statements in the AI data center financing sector are becoming a foundation for its entry into adjacent crypto tracks (including loans to AI mining companies and tokenized bond underwriting). Notably, JPMorgan has previously issued multiple warnings of "time running out" during the CLARITY Act legislative process, and this financial report did not provide a new legislative timeline assessment, but the strong qualitative outlook for AI infrastructure indicates that the bank will continue to provide financing services to AI mining clients such as TeraWulf and IREN, further deepening its balance sheet exposure to the crypto ecosystem.

According to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan strategists advise investors to close positions on the flattening of the 10-year to 30-year U.S. Treasury yield curve ahead of the U.S. CPI data release and Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's first testimony before Congress to address the upcoming event risks.The strategists stated that due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, short-end U.S. Treasury yields rose by 6 basis points, and the yield curve flattened by 3 basis points. Waller expressed concerns that high inflation may become entrenched in market inflation expectations, stating that if CPI data continues to show strong core inflation pressures, the Federal Reserve will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term.

According to CoinDesk, the UK government is accelerating the process of tokenizing financial markets, with 54 financial institutions including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, HSBC, and UBS joining the wholesale digital market working group supported by HM Treasury.The working group, supported by the City of London Corporation, will explore practical tokenization application scenarios in the UK financial market over the next year, initially focusing on tokenized repurchase agreements (tokenised repo).Chris Woolard, head of the wholesale digital market at HM Treasury, stated in the report that the tokenized financial market is a "network competition," and the UK must advance as quickly as possible, or it may miss the opportunity to participate in the construction of global digital financial infrastructure.

Japan's SBI Group plans to launch a lending service that offers a 3% annual yield on the JPYSC stablecoin held by users. The service is expected to go live as early as this month.

According to FN News, the Japanese convenience store chain Lawson will launch a pilot program for JPYC (yen-pegged stablecoin) payments at its Gateway City store in Tokyo in early August. This pilot is conducted in collaboration with digital asset wallet provider Hashport, aiming to enable consumers to make payments using smartphone e-wallets.This is the first time in Japan that stablecoin payments are being tested in connection with a POS system. By connecting to the POS system, purchasing data such as the quantity of goods and payment times can be integrated into the existing store management system for management. Lawson plans to verify the stability of the integration with the POS system and the time required for actual payments through this experiment before deciding whether to fully implement the system.

According to CNBC, as concerns about insider trading arise from prediction markets, Goldman Sachs has prohibited employees from trading contracts related to the bank's own events, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical issues. Financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are formulating or updating relevant policies, with Bank of America explicitly prohibiting certain behaviors related to prediction market trading for its employees.Previously, the CFTC and the Department of Justice charged a Google employee with profiting approximately $1.2 million by trading "annual search" related contracts on Polymarket using non-public information. Legal experts stated that the CFTC is "still a blank slate" in terms of insider trading enforcement, but the variety of contract types on the platform makes comprehensive regulation difficult. Kalshi and Polymarket have respectively launched employment verification tools and collaborated with Chainalysis and Palantir to monitor suspicious activities. Lawyers recommend that companies update their insider trading policies to cover event contracts, establish monitoring agreements, and even prohibit access to prediction markets on company devices.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out that Strategy's recent sell-off of Bitcoin and its BTC monetization plan may bring temporary selling pressure, but it is not the main structural risk for Bitcoin. The greater risk lies in blockchain applications (including payments, clearing, RWA, etc.) increasingly shifting towards bank-built or regulatory-friendly permissioned chains and unified ledgers, rather than public chains.If tokenized deposits, SWIFT blockchain projects, central bank digital currencies, etc., are implemented within traditional financial infrastructure, and settlements adopt more private or delayed netting models, the activity, liquidity, and capital flow of public chains and tokens may be weakened, and the demand for stablecoins may also be partially replaced by bank tokenized deposits, thereby suppressing Bitcoin's performance. Analysts stated that a hybrid architecture, favorable regulation for public chain stablecoins, or a strengthened "digital gold" narrative may correct the above judgment.

According to ChaoXiang Research, the latest global semiconductor weekly report from JPMorgan points out that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index saw an increase of 88% in the second quarter, marking the strongest single-quarter performance in the index's history. However, institutions believe that this increase is difficult to sustain unless profits are realized or the capital expenditure growth of cloud vendors truly slows down.Position data shows that the momentum factor holdings have fallen 17% from the June peak. After hardware semiconductor crowded long positions outperformed crowded short positions by nearly 40 percentage points in June, there have been continuous net sell-offs in July. The overall position percentile of U.S. stocks has dropped from the 60th percentile to the 40th percentile within a month.

JPMorgan analysts stated that Michael Saylor's Strategy recently officially launched a Bitcoin selling policy, transforming the company from a pure BTC buyer into a potential seller, introducing "avoidable two-way risk" to the crypto market. Strategy's Bitcoin selling policy is called the BTC Monetization Program, allowing the company to sell Bitcoin to raise up to $1.25 billion in cash reserves for paying preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, or for repurchasing preferred stock and common stock to optimize its capital structure.JPMorgan believes that if Strategy may sell BTC in the future, it will increase market uncertainty and volatility regarding Bitcoin prices. Analysts noted that if the company instead supplemented future dividend payment reserves through equity issuance, this risk could have been avoided. Strategy currently has a minimum cash reserve target set to cover 12 months of preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, with the current $2.55 billion cash reserve approximately covering 17 months of dividends. JPMorgan believes the company should increase its cash reserves to cover 24 to 36 months of related obligations, even if this may lead to common stock trading at a discount to net asset value, it would reassure investors that the company will not be forced to sell Bitcoin in the short term.

According to Gate market data, the pressure of the yen's depreciation continues to intensify, with the USD/JPY reaching the 162 mark for the first time since December 1986.