mvrv

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin are currently at a loss relative to their entry cost, but the realized loss is limited, and there are no signs of large-scale selling or capitulation in the market. The STH MVRV is approximately maintained at 0.94, remaining below the 1.0 parity level for 98 consecutive days, corresponding to over three months of sustained unrealized losses. This group has a realized price of about $67,300, while the spot price is around $63,200, with an average unrealized loss of about 6%. The price still stands above the -1σ support level of $59,300, with a deeper pressure zone at -2σ located at $49,200, showing a controllable pullback rather than structural damage.In terms of behavioral indicators, the STH SOPR (7-day moving average) is running at about 0.996, slightly below 1.0, indicating that this group is on average realizing small losses, but the losses are shallow and close to the breakeven line. The indicator has recently fluctuated narrowly between 0.996 and 1.002, briefly touching 1.0 on August 10 before retreating, with no signs of a deep selling wave. MVRV and SOPR corroborate each other: short-term holders are under pressure and realizing small losses, but this has not evolved into panic selling.Analysis points out that an upward recovery requires SOPR to stabilize above 1.0 and MVRV to rise above 1.0 (with the spot price breaking above the realized price of about $67,300); the downside risk lies in losing the $59,300 -1σ support and extending towards $49,200, while SOPR further weakens. The current structure is still supported, with pressure present but no signs of capitulation selling yet.

According to crypto analyst alicharts, based on Ethereum's nearly 6-year historical trend, ETH tends to gain support after regaining the MVRV 0.8 price level, pushing towards the realized price (approximately $2300). Additionally, this signal is consistent with the previous four MVRV momentum golden crosses, which brought increases of 50% - 166%.alicharts believes that $3000 should be regarded as a key resistance area, due to over 10 million ETH historical transaction records.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on the X platform that the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has dropped to about 0.42, which is approximately four times lower than the historical average of 1.7, indicating that Bitcoin is currently in an undervalued range. However, this indicator has not yet fallen into negative territory, which means that the market has not yet experienced the "capitulation" typically associated with cycle bottoms.Meanwhile, the Bitcoin 7-day realized profit and loss (Realized P/L) has turned positive from negative, currently at about $239 million, showing that on-chain selling pressure has eased. Analysts believe that the market is currently in a phase of undervaluation and short-term stabilization, but there are no signs of capitulation needed to confirm a cycle bottom, nor is there a clear new round of demand-driven momentum.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin's current MVRV percentile is around the 5th percentile—meaning that historically, 95% of the time, this metric has been higher than it is now. This indicates that the Bitcoin price is currently in a very low range relative to its historical levels. MVRV is an indicator that measures the relationship between Bitcoin's market capitalization and its "realized value" (the price at which each BTC last moved).The method used by Darkfost does not simply look at raw values but ranks the current MVRV within historical data to assess the current price's relative position in history. Previously, in February, when BTC fell below $60,000, this metric dropped below 10%, and it has entered a similar range again since June. Historical data shows that these periods often correspond to long-term bottom ranges.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report indicating that the MVRV ratio of long-term Bitcoin holders has compressed to 1.24, the lowest level in nearly three years. The cost basis for long-term holders has risen to $48,400, while the BTC price has fallen to $59,000, leaving an average profit of only 24% for long-term holders, with the gap to the cost basis narrowing to 19%.Meanwhile, the holdings of long-term holders have reached an all-time high, approaching 16.1 million BTC, and the selling indicators remain low, indicating that holders are not selling during price declines but are continuously absorbing supply. The analyst noted that when the MVRV approaches 1, historical cycles typically come close to a bottom, but currently, it has not yet entered the green surrender zone. Stronger bottoming signals will require the MVRV to enter the "extremely low area" and for prices to remain above the cost basis. The main downside risk is if the price falls below the $48,400 cost basis and selling activity surges simultaneously, which could trigger surrender behavior from the most steadfast holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin has been in a state of realized net loss for 22 consecutive days, meaning that trades where the selling price is lower than the buying price continue to dominate, and holders are closing positions at a loss. The MVRV Z-Score indicator has dropped to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that valuations have significantly cooled, with premiums almost completely washed away, and the market is no longer expensive.If this indicator falls below zero, it will enter a deeply undervalued and capitulation zone; if it rises above the historical average, it will signal a valuation recovery. The lowest point of realized net loss occurred on June 6, reaching $1.2 billion, and has now narrowed to about $1.1 billion, roughly half of the extreme capitulation value of $2.2 billion in 2022. Analysts point out that market pressure is evident, but valuations have reset, and the valuation discount itself is a positive signal. The trigger for improvement is when realized net profit and loss return to zero and above, and MVRV Z remains positive; the main risk is that losses deepen again to the extreme levels of 2022 and MVRV Z falls below zero.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan pointed out that the Bitcoin MVRV is currently 1.1, which is close to the historically significant undervaluation range marking major market bottoms.If the price further dips to the low of $50,000, the MVRV may reach the fully undervalued level of 1. Historical data shows that this level appeared at the bottoms of bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, and each time became the starting point for a strong medium to long-term rebound.

According to analyst @alicharts, the current Ethereum MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) has dropped to 0.78. Historically, when the MVRV ratio falls below 0.8, ETH is usually close to a long-term bottom. However, the current market is still in a significant distribution phase.@alicharts indicates that if the selling pressure continues, potential support levels are: $1800, $1584, $1238, and $1089.

Cryptocurrency researcher anıl posted on the X platform that, based on historical data, when the MVRV Z-Score drops below 0, especially below -0.20, Bitcoin is at its price low point. In this cycle, the lowest value Bitcoin reached was +0.26, which means the classic "green zone" has not yet been tested. In every previous major cycle, the Z-Score has entered negative territory. If this value enters negative territory again, it could signal the most attractive medium to long-term risk-reward ratio range for Bitcoin.

The cryptocurrency market analysis firm Santiment posted on social media that if a certain cryptocurrency's MVRV indicator is negative, most ordinary traders are losing on that token, indicating an entry opportunity, as profits are below the normal "zero-sum game" level. The more negative the yield, the lower the current buying risk for investors.The current MVRV indicators for mainstream tokens are as follows: ChainLink -9.5%, Cardano -7.9%, Ethereum -7.6%, XRP -5.7%, Bitcoin -3.7%, all of which are in the undervalued zone. Note: MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value Ratio, which is commonly translated into Chinese as: 市值 / 已实现价值比率. This indicator typically reflects whether the average investor holding the coin is making a profit or a loss, as well as whether the overall market valuation is high or low.

Analyst @ali_charts cited glassnode data indicating that, based on the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value ratio (MVRV) derived price range, the two key resistance levels for Bitcoin to watch are: $99,070 and $22,060.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that the short-term holder (STH) MVRV indicator has reached a local low of 0.9124, close to the lower boundary of the statistical range. Currently, the indicator has stabilized and risen to 0.9514.If it can maintain above 0.92, it may further rise to the upper boundary of the range, corresponding to a Bitcoin price of approximately between $115,000 and $120,000.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analyst Shayan Markets stated that the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) of Bitcoin is an indicator to measure whether the asset is overvalued. This indicator recently fell below its 365-day moving average, suggesting that the Bitcoin market may be forming a "cyclical bottom."The analyst mentioned in a report on Monday: "The MVRV ratio is currently close to 1.9, slightly below its 365-day moving average. Historically, every time this ratio falls below the 365-day simple moving average (SMA), it marks the arrival of a buying opportunity and a local bottom signal." The last occurrences of this were in mid-2021, June 2022, and early 2024, after which Bitcoin prices rose by 135%, 100%, and 196%, respectively.This ongoing pattern indicates that Bitcoin has once again "entered an undervalued phase, where long-term holders typically begin to accumulate." If history repeats itself, Bitcoin prices may initiate a long-term recovery. The analyst expects that if the final phase of the bull market begins, the short-term target price could be around $115,000, potentially even reaching $190,000.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on social media that the current annualized adjusted MVRV ratio of Bitcoin has reached the 1 range------this means that the short-term average (30 days) is basically on par with the annual average (365 days).The annualized basis remains positive, and its curve is horizontal, resulting from the mutual offset of two forces: after a strong rise, the 30-day indicator cools down in sync with volatility and profit-taking speed, while the heavy 365-day average still contains the growth momentum of the past few months. The result is that the numerator and denominator move almost in sync, with the difference between them shrinking, and the basis line neither declines nor accelerates upward------the market is substantively digesting the previous gains.This situation leans more towards a pause in a bullish structure rather than the end of a cycle. As long as the annualized basis does not show a downward reversal, the current situation should be viewed as a balanced state rather than a trend breakdown: the network is reallocating risk from impatient holders to more patient ones, and there are no signs of panic selling.The market's reaction to the current position in the coming weeks will be crucial. At this stage, what the market needs more is time rather than a reversal in direction.

ChainCatcher news, Glassnode stated on social media that as Ethereum reached an all-time high, its MVRV ratio has climbed to 2.15. This means that on average, investors are currently holding more than 2.15 times unrealized gains.This level is similar to the market conditions in March 2024 and December 2020—both of which were followed by a phase of increased volatility and intensified profit-taking.

ChainCatcher message, crypto analyst @ali_charts released a chart analysis stating, "Market peak? Not for ETH. MVRV extremes indicate there is still room for growth."

ChainCatcher message, CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent stated, "The MVRV indicator points to a potential cycle peak. The 365-day moving average (DMA) of MVRV formed a double-top camel shape before the bear market began in 2021. After that, another peak appeared six months later. The second peak actually marked the turning point."

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analysts stated that the MVRV ratio of short-term holders (STH) is currently only 1.15, far below the typical threshold of 1.35 that triggers large-scale profit-taking. On July 11, the realized price for STH first broke the $100,000 mark and is currently over $102,000.Analysis shows that before reaching the key MVRV threshold, Bitcoin's price still has about 20%-25% upside potential, providing a bullish window for investors. The MVRV metric measures the level of unrealized profits by comparing market capitalization with realized price.

ChainCatcher message, crypto analyst Ali posted on the X platform stating that based on the MVRV pricing range, if Bitcoin recently falls below the support level of $102,044, it may pull back to around the average range of $82,570.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on social media that the annualized real MVRV (Market Value/Realized Value Ratio) of BTC has returned to positive territory, indicating that the average cost price of all tokens purchased in the past year is now below the current market price. Panic selling pressure is easing------most holders are now in profit and do not need to sell at a loss. Holder confidence is continuously strengthening. This "critical point transition" coincides with the market recovery phase, marking the beginning of a more sustainable price growth cycle. This trend will continue until speculative premiums accumulate to a sufficiently high level, prompting holders to choose to take profits.