mvrv

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost stated that after Bitcoin encountered resistance around $87,000, the MVRV indicator has fallen below the historical 30th percentile (25.7%), indicating that the market has re-entered a transitional phase after experiencing a capitulation-style sell-off.Darkfost further pointed out that this indicator does not simply measure the ratio of Bitcoin's market value to its realized value, but rather compares the current MVRV level against the historical context of its evolution. The historical time proportion corresponding to the current valuation level is only about 25%, which still aligns with the characteristics of the market accumulation range. However, Bitcoin has moved away from the extremely undervalued range, which has historically coincided with market bottoms.

According to Glassnode data, long-term holders of BTC have remained in profit throughout this cycle. This has never happened in previous bear markets since at least 2015.In each previous bear market, the long-term holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) indicator would drop below 1 at the bottom of the cycle, causing this group to fall into a loss. However, this time, the indicator bottomed out above 1 and is currently rising again.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform that this round of the Bitcoin bull market will bring a 3-5 times increase, rather than another round of parabolic surge exceeding 10 times, followed by a milder bear market.Ki Young Ju pointed out that in this cycle, the MVRV has never fallen below 1. Even at the lows, BTC has remained above the average on-chain cost basis for holders. Some investors have incurred losses, but overall holders have never fallen into a loss.

CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto stated that the adjusted long-term holder (LTH) MVRV metric has recovered from a shallow pressure zone and is currently back in a profitable state. Data shows that the adjusted MVRV for the long-term holder group with a holding period of 6 months to 10 years continued to compress and remained above 1 in April this year. An MVRV of 1 represents the overall breakeven line for this group, with values above 1 indicating unrealized profits and below 1 indicating unrealized losses.Between June and August, this metric fell below 1 five times, reaching a low of approximately 0.94 on June 30, when the BTC price was around $58,500, while the group's realized price benchmark was about $62,000, which is about 6% below the breakeven line. However, Zizcrypto noted that the duration and magnitude of this pressure were limited, with the metric remaining close to 1 and not entering the deep loss phase for long-term holders seen in 2019 and during 2022-2023. As of September 27, the adjusted LTH MVRV has recovered to about 1.35, with the BTC price around $84,500, while the long-term holders' realized price is about $62,700, indicating that the spot price is approximately 35% higher than this cost basis. The long-term holder group with a holding period of 6 months to 10 years has emerged from a shallow pressure phase below 1 and re-entered an overall profitable state, resembling a recovery after a healthy adjustment rather than a deep or prolonged loss cycle.

Analyst Darkfost pointed out that the MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) of short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin has risen to its highest level since November 2025. This increase was driven by the price breaking through the short-term holder cost benchmark of approximately $73,100, significantly enhancing market momentum between August and September.The current MVRV ratio is 1.15, indicating that short-term holders are, on average, in a 15% profit state, and their holding market value has exceeded the realized value. This level is worth close attention, as it may prompt short-term holders to take action, especially to realize profits.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the 30-day moving average of the adjusted MVRV crossed above its 365-day moving average on August 20, indicating that Bitcoin entered an early bull market phase, with a price at that time of $71,255. This phase lasted for 31 days, during which Bitcoin rose by 13%.

On-chain data analysis platform Glassnode posted on X: Bitcoin has flashed momentum signals that have initiated the last two bull markets, and the MVRV has once again crossed above its 365-day moving average.Glassnode stated that this is the same crossover that occurred at the beginning of each bull market in 2019 and 2023.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin are currently at a loss relative to their entry cost, but the realized loss is limited, and there are no signs of large-scale selling or capitulation in the market. The STH MVRV is approximately maintained at 0.94, remaining below the 1.0 parity level for 98 consecutive days, corresponding to over three months of sustained unrealized losses. This group has a realized price of about $67,300, while the spot price is around $63,200, with an average unrealized loss of about 6%. The price still stands above the -1σ support level of $59,300, with a deeper pressure zone at -2σ located at $49,200, showing a controllable pullback rather than structural damage.In terms of behavioral indicators, the STH SOPR (7-day moving average) is running at about 0.996, slightly below 1.0, indicating that this group is on average realizing small losses, but the losses are shallow and close to the breakeven line. The indicator has recently fluctuated narrowly between 0.996 and 1.002, briefly touching 1.0 on August 10 before retreating, with no signs of a deep selling wave. MVRV and SOPR corroborate each other: short-term holders are under pressure and realizing small losses, but this has not evolved into panic selling.Analysis points out that an upward recovery requires SOPR to stabilize above 1.0 and MVRV to rise above 1.0 (with the spot price breaking above the realized price of about $67,300); the downside risk lies in losing the $59,300 -1σ support and extending towards $49,200, while SOPR further weakens. The current structure is still supported, with pressure present but no signs of capitulation selling yet.

According to crypto analyst alicharts, based on Ethereum's nearly 6-year historical trend, ETH tends to gain support after regaining the MVRV 0.8 price level, pushing towards the realized price (approximately $2300). Additionally, this signal is consistent with the previous four MVRV momentum golden crosses, which brought increases of 50% - 166%.alicharts believes that $3000 should be regarded as a key resistance area, due to over 10 million ETH historical transaction records.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on the X platform that the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has dropped to about 0.42, which is approximately four times lower than the historical average of 1.7, indicating that Bitcoin is currently in an undervalued range. However, this indicator has not yet fallen into negative territory, which means that the market has not yet experienced the "capitulation" typically associated with cycle bottoms.Meanwhile, the Bitcoin 7-day realized profit and loss (Realized P/L) has turned positive from negative, currently at about $239 million, showing that on-chain selling pressure has eased. Analysts believe that the market is currently in a phase of undervaluation and short-term stabilization, but there are no signs of capitulation needed to confirm a cycle bottom, nor is there a clear new round of demand-driven momentum.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin's current MVRV percentile is around the 5th percentile—meaning that historically, 95% of the time, this metric has been higher than it is now. This indicates that the Bitcoin price is currently in a very low range relative to its historical levels. MVRV is an indicator that measures the relationship between Bitcoin's market capitalization and its "realized value" (the price at which each BTC last moved).The method used by Darkfost does not simply look at raw values but ranks the current MVRV within historical data to assess the current price's relative position in history. Previously, in February, when BTC fell below $60,000, this metric dropped below 10%, and it has entered a similar range again since June. Historical data shows that these periods often correspond to long-term bottom ranges.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report indicating that the MVRV ratio of long-term Bitcoin holders has compressed to 1.24, the lowest level in nearly three years. The cost basis for long-term holders has risen to $48,400, while the BTC price has fallen to $59,000, leaving an average profit of only 24% for long-term holders, with the gap to the cost basis narrowing to 19%.Meanwhile, the holdings of long-term holders have reached an all-time high, approaching 16.1 million BTC, and the selling indicators remain low, indicating that holders are not selling during price declines but are continuously absorbing supply. The analyst noted that when the MVRV approaches 1, historical cycles typically come close to a bottom, but currently, it has not yet entered the green surrender zone. Stronger bottoming signals will require the MVRV to enter the "extremely low area" and for prices to remain above the cost basis. The main downside risk is if the price falls below the $48,400 cost basis and selling activity surges simultaneously, which could trigger surrender behavior from the most steadfast holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin has been in a state of realized net loss for 22 consecutive days, meaning that trades where the selling price is lower than the buying price continue to dominate, and holders are closing positions at a loss. The MVRV Z-Score indicator has dropped to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that valuations have significantly cooled, with premiums almost completely washed away, and the market is no longer expensive.If this indicator falls below zero, it will enter a deeply undervalued and capitulation zone; if it rises above the historical average, it will signal a valuation recovery. The lowest point of realized net loss occurred on June 6, reaching $1.2 billion, and has now narrowed to about $1.1 billion, roughly half of the extreme capitulation value of $2.2 billion in 2022. Analysts point out that market pressure is evident, but valuations have reset, and the valuation discount itself is a positive signal. The trigger for improvement is when realized net profit and loss return to zero and above, and MVRV Z remains positive; the main risk is that losses deepen again to the extreme levels of 2022 and MVRV Z falls below zero.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan pointed out that the Bitcoin MVRV is currently 1.1, which is close to the historically significant undervaluation range marking major market bottoms.If the price further dips to the low of $50,000, the MVRV may reach the fully undervalued level of 1. Historical data shows that this level appeared at the bottoms of bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, and each time became the starting point for a strong medium to long-term rebound.

According to analyst @alicharts, the current Ethereum MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) has dropped to 0.78. Historically, when the MVRV ratio falls below 0.8, ETH is usually close to a long-term bottom. However, the current market is still in a significant distribution phase.@alicharts indicates that if the selling pressure continues, potential support levels are: $1800, $1584, $1238, and $1089.

Cryptocurrency researcher anıl posted on the X platform that, based on historical data, when the MVRV Z-Score drops below 0, especially below -0.20, Bitcoin is at its price low point. In this cycle, the lowest value Bitcoin reached was +0.26, which means the classic "green zone" has not yet been tested. In every previous major cycle, the Z-Score has entered negative territory. If this value enters negative territory again, it could signal the most attractive medium to long-term risk-reward ratio range for Bitcoin.

The cryptocurrency market analysis firm Santiment posted on social media that if a certain cryptocurrency's MVRV indicator is negative, most ordinary traders are losing on that token, indicating an entry opportunity, as profits are below the normal "zero-sum game" level. The more negative the yield, the lower the current buying risk for investors.The current MVRV indicators for mainstream tokens are as follows: ChainLink -9.5%, Cardano -7.9%, Ethereum -7.6%, XRP -5.7%, Bitcoin -3.7%, all of which are in the undervalued zone. Note: MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value Ratio, which is commonly translated into Chinese as: 市值 / 已实现价值比率. This indicator typically reflects whether the average investor holding the coin is making a profit or a loss, as well as whether the overall market valuation is high or low.

Analyst @ali_charts cited glassnode data indicating that, based on the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value ratio (MVRV) derived price range, the two key resistance levels for Bitcoin to watch are: $99,070 and $22,060.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that the short-term holder (STH) MVRV indicator has reached a local low of 0.9124, close to the lower boundary of the statistical range. Currently, the indicator has stabilized and risen to 0.9514.If it can maintain above 0.92, it may further rise to the upper boundary of the range, corresponding to a Bitcoin price of approximately between $115,000 and $120,000.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analyst Shayan Markets stated that the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) of Bitcoin is an indicator to measure whether the asset is overvalued. This indicator recently fell below its 365-day moving average, suggesting that the Bitcoin market may be forming a "cyclical bottom."The analyst mentioned in a report on Monday: "The MVRV ratio is currently close to 1.9, slightly below its 365-day moving average. Historically, every time this ratio falls below the 365-day simple moving average (SMA), it marks the arrival of a buying opportunity and a local bottom signal." The last occurrences of this were in mid-2021, June 2022, and early 2024, after which Bitcoin prices rose by 135%, 100%, and 196%, respectively.This ongoing pattern indicates that Bitcoin has once again "entered an undervalued phase, where long-term holders typically begin to accumulate." If history repeats itself, Bitcoin prices may initiate a long-term recovery. The analyst expects that if the final phase of the bull market begins, the short-term target price could be around $115,000, potentially even reaching $190,000.