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Iran's Supreme Leader calls for conditions to end the war, oil prices drop

After comments from Iranian leaders, oil prices fell, U.S. stock futures and government bond prices rose, and the cryptocurrency market saw a short-term increase. Previously, the Supreme Leader of Iran called for conditions to be proposed to end the war, leading to a short-term drop of about $0.8 in both U.S. and Brent crude oil prices. The Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Major General Rezaei, met with the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei.The talks discussed maintaining national and regional security through the management of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as consolidating bilateral relations with neighboring countries based on lasting mutual benefits. Khamenei stated that the enemy's predicament is a result of Iran's adherence to national resistance and emphasized the need to actively and timely disseminate information to maintain public participation in defending the country and the system.Khamenei also mentioned that efforts should be made to uphold the rights and interests of the Iranian people and the resistance front by implementing the relevant conditions proposed by Iranian officials, in order to end the war and the situation of "neither war nor peace." Rezaei stated that the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council is advancing Iran's strategic policies, which include establishing a regionally-led arrangement and order.

Goldman Sachs: Semiconductor exposure explains about 54% of the earnings difference, while oil prices account for only 2%

Goldman Sachs' latest research shows that over the past three weeks, semiconductor stock exposure has been able to explain about 54% of the return performance differences between different asset classes, while oil price exposure accounts for only 2%. As the influence of AI trading continues to expand, technology stocks are becoming an important factor driving global market risk appetite and asset performance differentiation.Goldman Sachs pointed out that recent investor risk appetite has been highly synchronized with the relative performance of large technology stocks. Last week, concerns about AI investment returns, financing costs, and capital expenditures intensified, leading to a sell-off in technology stocks and corporate bonds, with Goldman Sachs' risk appetite indicator falling to its lowest level since April 2025. The South Korean stock market has become a typical case of this impact, with the KOSPI rising 3.1% on Tuesday, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics increasing by 5.2% and 4.2%, respectively.Due to the high weight of semiconductor stocks in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, changes in global AI investment expectations directly affect local market performance. Goldman Sachs emphasized that the 54% and 2% figures reflect a statistical relationship within a specific time window and do not imply that AI factors long-term determine global market fluctuations; the impact of high oil prices on inflation, monetary policy, and asset pricing cannot be ignored. Major technology companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are about to announce their earnings reports, and the market will focus on whether AI demand can continue to grow and whether massive capital expenditures can be converted into actual profits.

first_img Bill Gates: AI will experience 20 years of turmoil before creating true wealth

Phoenix Technology cites a report from Business Insider, stating that Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates mentioned in the latest episode of the "Decoder" podcast that artificial intelligence will create "true abundance," but the next 20 years will be as turbulent as any period in human history, with unprecedented job losses and chaos, resulting in winners and losers.Gates indicated that jobs such as telemarketing, customer service, and accounting will disappear, as AI can perform these tasks more cheaply, quickly, and even more accurately; blue-collar jobs will be taken over by humanoid robots. If not significantly slowed down or stopped, robots capable of building houses, growing food, and performing surgeries will emerge, making human labor unnecessary for most goods and services. He believes that work provides a sense of purpose, income, a reason to attend, relationships with colleagues, and pathways for creativity and problem-solving, while activities such as art, sports, cooking, and parenting can be left to humans in the future.The report also mentions that Jeff Bezos and Jamie Dimon have proposed shortening the workweek; Elon Musk has predicted that the transition will be "bumpy" and advocates for the government to issue checks to everyone; Dalio Amodi stated that AI is expected to improve quality of life, but the scale of short-term impacts will be unprecedented; Sam Altman mentioned in May of this year that the number of white-collar jobs eliminated by AI is not as high as he expected. Despite concerns that AI will replace jobs and high-profile layoffs at companies like Amazon and Meta, the unemployment rate in the U.S. has not significantly risen during the AI boom.

Analysis: Brent crude oil continues to stay above 100 dollars, macro pressures may limit Bitcoin's upward potential

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that due to the ongoing tensions in the Gulf region and Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian refineries, Brent crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. The rise in oil prices is transmitting through the global economy, pushing up production, service, and commodity costs, further permeating inflationary pressures into the economic system, and potentially increasing the risk of economic slowdown, thereby limiting market liquidity, especially for funds flowing into high-risk assets like Bitcoin.Darkfost pointed out that from a long-term trend perspective, when Brent crude oil remains above the annual average and enters a strong upward trend, BTC tends to show slower performance; conversely, when oil prices drop significantly, BTC is more likely to experience a recovery. However, he emphasized that this does not mean there is a simple direct causal relationship between oil prices and BTC; what truly affects risk assets is the macroeconomic environment accompanying high oil prices. In July of this year, oil prices briefly retreated, providing BTC with an opportunity to rise, but Brent crude has since rebounded significantly. Although funds may still rotate between different markets, driving BTC to continue its upward trend, the current macro environment is not conducive to sustained new liquidity flowing into the market.
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