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The New York Times: The market expects the Federal Reserve to hold steady this week, and Waller must explain the reasons

According to The New York Times, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the FOMC meeting this week (October 27 to 28). Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh needs to explain why he is not raising interest rates while inflationary pressures remain high, while also indicating that the determination to combat inflation has not weakened and keeping the possibility of another rate hike this year.The report states that the Federal Reserve raised rates once in September, and the market had once priced in another rate hike in October. New York Fed President John Williams, Vice President Jefferson, and Governor Waller expressed at the end of September to early October that they could wait a bit longer, causing the probability of an October rate hike to drop from over 70% to less than 30%. High oil prices and the demand for materials and electricity driven by AI infrastructure increased price pressures in September. The Nasdaq 100 index has fallen more than 7% since its historical high on October 6, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond had previously stood above 5% for several consecutive weeks.Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, stated that he expects interest rates to remain unchanged this week but believes there may still be another rate hike in December. Walsh needs to explain why he is not taking action in October while also clarifying why December is still under consideration. Since taking office in May, Walsh has provided little forward guidance on the interest rate path. The press conference after the decision to hold rates steady in July caused market volatility due to overly brief wording, and subsequent hawkish remarks in August, along with the rate hike in September and signals of another hike this year, somewhat repaired communication. This week's decision is approaching the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, and Trump had previously criticized the rate hike in September.

Goldman Sachs: Semiconductor exposure explains about 54% of the earnings difference, while oil prices account for only 2%

Goldman Sachs' latest research shows that over the past three weeks, semiconductor stock exposure has been able to explain about 54% of the return performance differences between different asset classes, while oil price exposure accounts for only 2%. As the influence of AI trading continues to expand, technology stocks are becoming an important factor driving global market risk appetite and asset performance differentiation.Goldman Sachs pointed out that recent investor risk appetite has been highly synchronized with the relative performance of large technology stocks. Last week, concerns about AI investment returns, financing costs, and capital expenditures intensified, leading to a sell-off in technology stocks and corporate bonds, with Goldman Sachs' risk appetite indicator falling to its lowest level since April 2025. The South Korean stock market has become a typical case of this impact, with the KOSPI rising 3.1% on Tuesday, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics increasing by 5.2% and 4.2%, respectively.Due to the high weight of semiconductor stocks in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, changes in global AI investment expectations directly affect local market performance. Goldman Sachs emphasized that the 54% and 2% figures reflect a statistical relationship within a specific time window and do not imply that AI factors long-term determine global market fluctuations; the impact of high oil prices on inflation, monetary policy, and asset pricing cannot be ignored. Major technology companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are about to announce their earnings reports, and the market will focus on whether AI demand can continue to grow and whether massive capital expenditures can be converted into actual profits.

first_img Over 10,000 complaints have been filed against the UK's banking crypto transfer restrictions, with Lloyds and Barclays being named

According to Cointelegraph, the crypto advocacy organization Stand With Crypto stated that during a 90-day period from May to August 2026, a total of 9,803 individuals submitted 10,092 complaints to UK banks through the organization's online tools, reflecting the restrictions encountered when transferring to crypto platforms.The highest number of complaints came from Lloyds Banking Group, one of the largest banking groups in the UK, totaling 2,297, followed by Barclays with 1,569 and NatWest Group with 1,278. These complaints have raised concerns about the accessibility of crypto services in the UK ahead of the launch of a new regulatory framework for digital assets in 2027.The report shows that UK banks have varying practices regarding restrictions on crypto transfers. Barclays and HSBC UK are listed as limiting crypto transfers to £2,500 (approximately $3,300) per transaction and £10,000 (approximately $13,300) every 30 days. Six banks, including Starling Bank, TSB, and Chase UK, are listed as completely prohibiting transfers related to crypto.Meanwhile, Lloyds Banking Group and Revolut are classified as having not disclosed their restrictions on crypto transfers, despite also receiving customer complaints. Revolut's official support page states that transfers to "certain cryptocurrency exchanges" are not supported, and a spokesperson for Stand With Crypto indicated that this seems to be a technical issue rather than an established policy.Nick Jones, founder and CEO of Zumo, told Cointelegraph that banking restrictions are a common issue faced by crypto founders in the UK, which could undermine the country's ambition to become a global crypto hub. He stated that the issue of limited access to banking services needs urgent resolution so that UK crypto businesses can grow and expand in a fair environment.Jones also warned that the upcoming crypto regulatory framework in the UK may not address this issue. Although businesses are preparing for mandatory approval from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) by October 2027, obtaining business bank accounts is not included in that framework. He added that without coordinated action, businesses may obtain full authorization but still be unable to open UK business bank accounts.

The CFTC of the United States rebuts the lawsuit qualification of CME: stating that it has not reasonably explained how the perpetual contract policy caused financial harm

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) stated in its latest court filing that CME only claims increased competition without reasonably explaining the existence of imminent financial harm, which is insufficient to qualify for a lawsuit challenging its perpetual contract policy. The CFTC pointed out that after the policy adjustment, CME's cryptocurrency futures trading volume has actually increased.In May of this year, the CFTC approved Kalshi's first Bitcoin perpetual contract and stated that it would regulate such products on a case-by-case basis under futures regulations. CME, on the other hand, believes that perpetual contracts do not have an expiration date and should be classified as swaps rather than futures, subject to a different regulatory framework. Last month, the CFTC requested a federal judge to dismiss the case, and this filing further elaborated on its rebuttal to CME's standing in the lawsuit.The CFTC also noted that CME had previously informed investors that it had not heard customer demand for perpetual contracts, and that such products could not replace its existing futures, and that it should not take different positions in court and during earnings calls. TD Cowen policy analyst Jaret Seiberg believes that CME may still have the upper hand regarding its standing in the lawsuit and the argument that the products should be classified as swaps. However, he is concerned that if the perpetual contract market continues to grow during the litigation, it may become more complicated to dismantle this market if CME wins.

first_img The Hong Kong government responds to the regulation of emerging payment platforms, with the Monetary Authority receiving 16 complaints

On October 7, at a meeting of the Hong Kong Legislative Council, legislator Chan Chun-ying raised a written inquiry regarding the regulation of emerging payment platforms. The Acting Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Chan Ho-lam, provided a written response. The inquiry pointed out that in recent years, new aggregation payment platforms have emerged, reaching out to small merchants with low fees and "buy now, pay later" methods. Some platforms have reported overdue payments and false entries, and there are platforms that are registered only as financial technology companies, without obtaining financial licenses, and have not disclosed their partner organizations or operational status.Chan Ho-lam stated that the government and financial regulatory agencies continue to monitor emerging payment models and take enforcement actions within the statutory framework. After consulting the Monetary Authority and Customs, from January 2024 to September 2026, the Monetary Authority received 16 complaints regarding the suspected unlicensed issuance or operation of stored value payment tools. After investigation, one was substantiated, and the complainant did not report any financial loss. The Monetary Authority is following up with the relevant companies.The response pointed out that the Monetary Authority regulates stored value payment tools under the Payment Systems and Stored Value Facilities Ordinance. Unless legally exempt, issuing or operating without a license in Hong Kong is illegal. Money services that operate currency exchange and cross-border remittances must apply for a license from Customs unless exempted. Non-bank institutions providing "buy now, pay later" services involving loan activities must apply for a money lender license under the Money Lenders Ordinance. Cases suspected of being unlicensed or non-compliant are handled by the Monetary Authority, which may collaborate with other regulatory agencies or refer to law enforcement departments.

first_img After the release of GPT-6 Astra, users complained that it became less intelligent, and OpenAI has not yet responded

According to a report by Decrypt, OpenAI's latest flagship model GPT-6 Astra has seen a surge of user complaints on the X platform about its performance "getting dumber" just a week after its release. An anonymous developer, synthwavedd, posted that "Astra feels noticeably dumber today," joking that it was a "post-release lobotomy." Previously praising the model, developer Pranjal Paliwal stated after reviewing the code Astra wrote for him: "We don't have AGI; what we're encountering is a performance regression."Developer Pankaj Kumar listed the symptoms: faster responses with poorer quality, and he suspects OpenAI has lowered the "juice value" (the computational power invested by the model before answering). Salio and researcher Md Ismail Sojal compared Astra on the release day with the current version using the same prompts, both yielding worse results. T3Chat founder Theo believes Astra is simply less stable than Claude Fable, with users beginning to showcase poor results after the honeymoon period ended. There are also opinions pointing out that OpenAI's previous flagship GPT-5.6 Sol experienced a similar cycle in July, when OpenAI executive Tibo Sottiaux denied intentionally weakening the model but admitted the company had been experimenting with "reasoning effort" settings.OpenAI has not released a statement regarding Astra similar to that of Sol.

"The Fed's Mouthpiece": How Waller Explains Inflation Determines the Path He Will Take

According to Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, known as the "Fed's megaphone," in his latest article, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh will face a core issue during his first major speech this week in Jackson Hole: whether the persistently high inflation in the United States is caused by one-time shocks such as tariffs and wars, or if the economy itself is still overheating.This judgment will directly determine the direction of interest rates and is currently the biggest divergence within the Federal Reserve. In the July meeting, three officials supported a rate hike, while other officials indicated the possibility of further tightening policies, but Walsh has not made a clear statement. Since taking office, he has deliberately reduced policy guidance, and now both the market and his Federal Reserve colleagues are waiting for him to systematically explain his judgment for the first time.The key to Walsh's term ultimately depends on how he explains why the previous policies failed to bring inflation back to 2%. If the policies of lowering interest rates and supporting employment over the past two years were fundamentally wrong because the labor market is actually stronger than the Federal Reserve judged, then Walsh needs to push for a reversal of interest rate cuts. However, this would conflict with the previous demands from Trump and Bessenet for further rate cuts.
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