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QCP Capital's market weekly report shows that after Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from 35% to 70%. BTC fell approximately 2.5% in a single day, and after nine consecutive days of net inflow, the ETF recorded a net outflow of $202 million. However, the dollar failed to maintain a hawkish pricing, with the DXY falling below 99.5, and gold, silver, and BTC all regained their losses.On the Treasury side, on September 9, the first long-end liquidity support operation will be launched, with the purchase limit raised to at least $4 billion (previously $2 billion). The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond auction on August 30 was reported at 5.216%, the highest since 2001, and the market will closely monitor whether this operation can effectively improve long-end liquidity.In terms of inflation, July PCE was reported at 3.7% (core 3.3%), CPI at 3.4% (core 2.5%), and Brent crude oil rose about 10% in a week due to attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a force majeure event in Qatar LNG, with inflationary pressures continuing. Waller stated that if the data continues to trend as it has over the next two weeks, it would support a pause in rate hikes. Coupled with the ADP employment data showing only 38,000 jobs added (the weakest since January), the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen to 45-50%.

According to QCP, the preliminary consumer confidence index for the University of Michigan in the U.S. dropped to 51 in August, and retail sales in July decreased by 0.6% month-on-month. Coupled with previous weak employment data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's short-term tightening policy have decreased.Federal funds futures indicate that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is about 30%.

According to QCP Capital, it has been 12 days since the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, and both sides experienced military conflicts again over the weekend, each accusing the other of violating the 60-day ceasefire agreement, putting pressure on the prospects for the second round of negotiations. Oil prices remain around $70, but if supply recovers slower than expected, there is still an upward risk for oil prices.In the cryptocurrency market, the implied volatility of BTC and ETH continues to rise, with increased demand for BTC put options in the $55,000-$58,000 range expiring in July. There has been a continuous net outflow from spot ETFs, concerns related to Strategy, and the pressure from the US stock market has weighed on market sentiment. However, there was also a significant buying interest in BTC call options at $64,000 expiring on the 17th. This week, the market will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the ECB forum, as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and US non-farm payroll data. Given the low liquidity ahead of the holiday, market volatility is expected to remain high.

QCP Capital released the latest report stating that Japanese government bond yields have retreated, easing market concerns about the unwinding of yen arbitrage trades and capital inflows, which drove Bitcoin to rebound to around $64,000.

The latest market report from QCP indicates that Bitcoin surged past $65,000 after Strategy announced an increase in cash reserves and the purchase of an additional 520 Bitcoins, improving short-term market sentiment.At the same time, there was a noticeable rotation within the U.S. stock market, with the Nasdaq weakening and small-cap stocks strengthening, reflecting that risk appetite has not broadly weakened.

According to QCP Capital's latest market report, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 11.6% this week, continuing to be under pressure. Market sentiment has been affected by the rare news of Strategy selling 32 BTC, although the sale size was only about $2.5 million, which had almost no substantial impact on its holdings of over 840,000 coins. However, it broke the long-standing market expectation of Strategy's "never selling coins," weakening the confidence of some investors.On a macro level, the situation is also unfavorable. The escalation of the Middle East situation and the stagnation of US-Iran negotiations have driven oil prices up, with the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz being re-emphasized. Meanwhile, US job vacancy data was stronger than expected, reducing the market's bets on a short-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve and reinforcing the expectation of "higher rates for longer." The options market shows a significant increase in defensive sentiment. The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) rose to about 41.4%, with a weekly increase of about 7 volatility points. The risk reversal indicator remains biased negative, with a short-term inverted yield curve reflecting strong demand for downside protection in the market.QCP believes that the current market is not in a panic sell-off but is re-pricing downside risks. Weak spot demand, rising oil prices, increasing real interest rates, and macro uncertainty are collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets. Meanwhile, AI concept stocks and large tech companies continue to attract significant capital inflows, further diverting risk appetite from the crypto market. QCP points out that if BTC cannot regain a foothold in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, the rebound may still face significant selling pressure. The current market is more inclined to purchase downside protection rather than actively increase risk exposure, as investors await a clearer direction from the macro environment between the paths of "soft landing" and "high inflation, high interest rates, low liquidity."

According to QCP Capital analysis, BTC is currently consolidating around $82,000, close to the 200-day moving average, with $80,000 support holding steady, but the $84,000 resistance above has not yet been broken. The core CPI for April year-on-year is 2.8%, slightly above expectations, mainly driven by housing costs (owner's equivalent rent), while core goods inflation remains sluggish, and the transmission of tariffs has not yet fully spread.Core services (excluding housing) inflation has accelerated for three consecutive months, combined with China's PPI turning positive for the first time in 41 months, the global commodity deflation dividend may be fading, and the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been raised further. The market is currently focused on three major catalysts: the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing (involving trade, rare earths, and Middle East issues), the release of PPI data, and the Senate Banking Committee's review process of the CLARITY cryptocurrency regulatory bill. Before these catalysts materialize, spot prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, with volatility remaining low.

According to QCP analysis, this week is packed with macro events, and the market focus is on three main lines: first, Trump and Xi Jinping will meet in Beijing this week, with topics covering tariffs, rare earth supply chains, and the situation in the Middle East. The market is concerned about whether substantial progress can be made in trade; second, the April CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be released successively. If inflation stabilizes, real yields are expected to decline, historically providing support for the crypto market; conversely, it will strengthen tightening expectations; third, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will review the CLARITY Act, and legislative progress may further drive institutional funds into the market.Currently, despite BTC facing ETF fund outflows last week, it has still maintained the $80,000 level. Crypto volatility remains at a low for the year, with the VIX around 18. In the short term, BTC is likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with $84,000 as a key resistance level.

QCP released a market observation stating that as geopolitical benefits fade, macro uncertainty is once again dominating market sentiment, leading both traditional markets and the crypto market to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach. The report points out that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and Powell's statements may become key variables in the short term; if hawkish signals are released, it could put pressure on liquidity-driven assets.QCP also noted that Bitcoin has maintained a range-bound fluctuation after rising in April, with current positions being light and volatility compressed, reflecting that the market as a whole is in a stage of waiting for directional choice.

QCP Group analysis indicates that the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have once again broken down, the ceasefire in the Middle East continues, and the overall geopolitical landscape remains static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, with Trump suspected to be the target. After the Asian market opened, BTC briefly surpassed $79,000 and ETH broke through $2,400, but concerns arose following news of the Iranian foreign minister's visit to Russia for talks with Putin, leading to a rapid pullback in gains.The current key resistance level in the market is the CME gap around $82,000. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts continues to be negative, and if the price breaks upward, it may trigger short covering. Implied volatility continues to decline, and the risk reversal skew has narrowed, with market interest in upward exposure gradually increasing. Key focus this week: April 29 earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, as well as the FOMC interest rate decision; April 30 earnings report from Apple, U.S. Q1 GDP, and March PCE data.

QCP stated that BTC rebounded from an overnight low near $75,000 to around $78,000, but this rise seems more like a correction after a calming of risk sentiment rather than a new phase for the market.The report pointed out that Trump's unilateral extension of the ceasefire with Iran has reduced expectations for short-term escalation of conflict, but the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and Iran's position is still unclear. Meanwhile, oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, creating a coexistence of inflationary pressure and slowing growth. QCP also noted that BTC's open interest has significantly rebounded, and the funding rate remains negative, indicating that shorts are still increasing their positions during the rise; the options market overall is still pricing for volatility rather than a continuation of trends.

QCP's latest market view states that as controversies surrounding the Iran-related ceasefire agreement resurface, the market's pricing for a de-escalation of the situation has quickly reversed. U.S. crude oil rebounded 8% after a drop last Friday, while crypto assets weakened in tandem, with BTC falling to $74,000 and ETH dipping to around $2,300.QCP pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and the U.S. is reportedly preparing to engage in a second round of negotiations with Iran in Pakistan, but it remains uncertain whether Iran will participate. Despite the pullback in spot prices, implied volatility is still close to this year's lows, indicating that the market is more inclined to price the duration of the conflict rather than its intensity. The market is also paying attention to Kevin Warsh, who will testify tomorrow on interest rates and the economic outlook before the Senate Banking Committee.

According to QCP Group analysis, BTC followed the overnight rebound of risk assets, rising to the mid-range of $74,000, triggered by the news of a preliminary framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran. However, long-term yields remained almost unchanged, gold maintained high levels, and the bond market did not follow suit, indicating that this rebound is merely a relief from headline risks rather than a substantive geopolitical resolution.The core contradiction lies in the uranium enrichment issue—Iran is currently enriching at 60%, while the U.S. demands a reduction to below 20%. Iran has yet to signal any compromise, and this issue has been unresolved since 2015. In terms of market structure, BTC spot is slowly rising against a backdrop of negative funding rates and low open interest, showing that shorts are still resisting and pushing for a short squeeze, but the options market has failed to confirm a breakout—short-term ATM volatility remains around 40, and one-month volatility is still lower than three-month volatility, with demand for downside protection still stronger than the willingness to chase upside.On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's net rate cut space for this year is close to zero, and liquidity conditions remain tight. QCP believes that this round of market activity is essentially a geopolitical-driven relief rebound rather than a fundamental shift in the macro landscape, and the market needs to be wary of the risk of a pullback after the rebound.

According to QCP Group, the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend, and oil prices returned above $100, with the market overall shifting towards safe-haven assets. BTC faced resistance at $74,000, while ETH fell from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports, and Iran retaliated with threats regarding the Strait of Mandeb, further widening the risk exposure.China is at the core of the situation due to its large imports of Iranian crude oil. If a blockade is implemented, the risk of US-China confrontation will significantly increase, and the market has not yet fully priced this in. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market has shown strong resilience—implied volatility and risk reversal indicators have both fallen back to pre-conflict levels, indicating a decline in panic sentiment.BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $612.1 million in the past week, with institutional buying remaining active. The market's current focus has shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details, as Trump announced that the blockade will begin at 10 AM Eastern Time, and after multiple delays, the credibility of the policy itself has become one of the trading variables.

QCP's weekly report pointed out that against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil price volatility, Bitcoin remains around $67,000, demonstrating a certain level of resilience; Ethereum shows steady performance, while altcoins lag behind.Market positions have been cleared, selling pressure has eased, and short-term hedging demand remains active, indicating that the market is no longer overly crowded. There is indeed support, but it is relatively limited. There is buying support for Bitcoin, but a comprehensive chase for higher prices has not yet emerged.

In the options market, implied volatility has slightly retreated, and the curve maintains a moderate positive spread. Downside hedging demand still exists but has not reached extreme levels, and geopolitical premiums continue to be reflected in volatility pricing.Currently, BTC has neither fully followed the high beta logic of the stock market nor formed stable safe-haven demand. Market trends are still primarily driven by news, and a trending market is yet to form until macro or geopolitical situations become clearer.

According to QCP Market analysis, after Trump's deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz passed, the planned actions were postponed, giving the market a temporary respite in risk appetite.BTC briefly fell below $70,000 over the weekend, but performed better than previous safe-haven sell-offs. QCP believes that, against the backdrop of U.S. debt exceeding $39 trillion, rising stagflation pressures, and increasing discussions on de-dollarization, BTC may be gradually breaking away from the "high beta risk asset" pricing framework.

QCP Capital released a market analysis stating that BTC's current price remains around $74,000, oscillating within a recent range with insufficient upward momentum.Although the overall cryptocurrency market is under pressure, the decline is relatively controllable compared to the pullback of other macro-sensitive risk assets. On-chain data shows that there is still buying behavior at lower levels, but spot trading volume is low, and recent price movements are mainly influenced by macro factors.On the macro level, this week is the most important central bank policy week of the year. The Federal Reserve will announce the results of the March interest rate meeting on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively release their decisions on Thursday. Due to high oil prices, the market has significantly lowered interest rate cut expectations, and the interest rate environment's support for crypto assets is weakening.At the same time, geopolitical risks persist, and oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, with the market overall maintaining stagflation expectations. QCP Capital points out that BTC currently does not exhibit pure high-beta risk asset characteristics, nor has it formed a stable inflow of safe-haven funds. Before the policy path and geopolitical situation become clearer, the range-bound oscillation pattern may continue.

The government of the Kingdom of Bhutan transferred 20.5 BTC (approximately 1.52 million USD) to QCP Capital; another 1.02 BTC (approximately 75,900 USD) was transferred to a new wallet address.

According to Arkham data, at 19:39, 100.14 WBTC (worth approximately 7.35 million USD) was transferred from an anonymous address (starting with 0x6086...) to QCP Capital.