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Bitget CFD Chief Analyst: The real risk of PPI is not the increase, but the restart of cost transmission

This week's upcoming release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) has become a key point for judging whether inflation is re-accelerating. Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out in a live broadcast that, against the backdrop of 162,000 new non-farm jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%, the demand side in the U.S. remains resilient. If core PPI and service prices continue to stay high, companies may pass costs onto consumers, driving up subsequent CPI and prompting the market to reprice the Federal Reserve's policy path of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period."Lewis Huang further analyzed two scenarios: if PPI exceeds expectations but CPI remains moderate, it indicates that companies lack pricing power and can only compress profit margins to absorb costs; if both PPI and CPI exceed expectations, it signifies that the inflation transmission chain has reopened, potentially serving as a catalyst for a stronger dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. From a trading perspective, if PPI exceeds expectations and drives the dollar up, gold and high-valuation tech indices like the Nasdaq 100 may come under pressure; conversely, if PPI falls short of expectations and the dollar retreats, it would support a rebound in gold and growth stock indices.Lewis Huang reminded traders that they should not only focus on the first wave of market movements following the data release but also observe whether PPI is confirmed by CPI, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields. If the rise in PPI is merely a short-term cost shock, the market impact will be limited; if costs continue to be transmitted to consumers, the market narrative may shift back to "recurring inflation and the continuation of high interest rates."

first_img TSMC will start mass production using ASML's high NA EUV lithography machines in 2030

On September 8, TSMC announced that starting in 2030, it will adopt a new "high NA" extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine manufactured by ASML from the Netherlands for mass production. Both parties also stated that they will carry out industry-wide improvements on the high NA machines. ASML monopolizes the supply of EUV lithography machines used to form nanoscale ultra-fine circuits and will begin shipping high NA machines capable of drawing finer circuits starting in December 2023. Intel has already introduced high NA machines, while TSMC previously delayed mass production due to high costs and other reasons.TSMC and ASML will launch an industry-wide project to enlarge the photomask, which serves as the original circuit pattern, from the current 6-inch (approximately 15 centimeters) square to a 12-inch square, and develop high NA machines and related components corresponding to the large masks. A large mask pilot production line is planned to be established before 2031, and the high NA machines corresponding to the large masks are expected to reach a state suitable for advanced semiconductor production before 2033. Major semiconductor manufacturers and mask companies have expressed interest in participating.High NA machines can draw finer circuits, but the area that can be drawn in a single exposure is reduced to half that of traditional models, requiring multiple exposures for large chip circuits, which complicates the process and increases costs. Enlarging the photomask can expand the exposure area and reduce costs. TSMC Chairman and CEO C. C. Wei stated that the company will gather expertise from the entire industry to continuously promote technological innovation that makes advanced technology widely usable and convey its benefits.
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