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Fu Peng discusses NVIDIA's financial report: The market's reaction to the financial data is lukewarm, attention should be paid to the duration of the boost from Jensen Huang's speech

Chief Economist Fu Peng of New Fire Group published an article pointing out that although Nvidia's latest financial report has exceeded expectations for 15 consecutive quarters, the market has reacted lukewarmly to the financial data itself. Indicators such as stock price and options volatility show that market investors are currently more concerned about whether the free cash flow of the future index center can be smoothly delivered, and how long the momentum of AI growth can be maintained. These issues weigh more heavily than the performance of a single quarter's financial report, so even if this performance exceeds Wall Street's expectations by a few points, it does not change the denominator of the valuation.Fu Peng believes that Jensen Huang's statement during the conference call clearly indicated that "the inflection point for AI has arrived," which is essentially to reassure the market, aiming to strengthen market confidence in the formation of a closed-loop AI industry chain and alleviate concerns about over-investment. Investors should observe how long it takes for the market to digest this round of confidence boost, and how long the elevated expectations brought by Jensen Huang will last before fading. If the sentiment fades quickly, it indicates that the current typical market mentality is "no rabbit, no hawk," and the impact of manufacturers repeatedly reinforcing confidence in the market is gradually weakening, which can be observed from the duration of market fluctuations after each conference call.

first_img Analyst: Kaito faces a huge unlock, suggested to pay attention after October

Cryptocurrency analyst cryptopainter pointed out that the Kaito-related address base:0x98d0baa52b2d063e780de12f615f963fe8537553 will unlock 18.53 million tokens on August 20, followed by an additional 6.58 million tokens unlocking from September 16 to 17. He believes that the recent actions of issuing good news and driving up prices to sell off are forms of price manipulation, and explained that although he was once optimistic about Kaito, his current stance has shifted to criticism.The analyst stated that his observation logic for Kaito has been simplified to testing whether the new product ecosystem can truly take off and generate social heat and scale close to 2025 levels. Even a recovery to 50% would prove that it remains a leader in InfoFi, and re-entering related positions at that time would be more assured. If product delivery falls short of expectations and ecosystem participation is average, he will not consider re-staking for now.He further mentioned that the aforementioned massive unlocks have mostly completed hedging and closing positions, and the spot supply has not been fully released. The true release signal should be when the spot price is significantly lower than the futures price, the funding rate is positively high, and the price is declining with volume. Without seeing these signals, he has no motivation to participate and advises investors to at least wait until after October to observe, while also reminding those who have recently bought back due to the price drop to be cautious.

BIP-110 soft fork is nearing activation, miners and exchanges need to pay attention to chain fork risks

According to Bitcoin Magazine, the BIP-110 soft fork is about to enter a critical activation phase. The proposal will enter the mandatory signaling phase around August 9, corresponding to block height 961,632, and is expected to lock in at block 963,648 by the end of August, with new transaction rules activated at block 965,664 in early September. BIP-110 adopts a 55% signaling threshold, and its restrictions will be enforced for 52,416 blocks (approximately one year).BIP-110 mainly restricts transaction features such as large data pushes, oversized output scripts, undefined witness versions, and Taproot annexes, but exempts UTXOs created before activation, maintaining compatibility for standard currency use. Analysis indicates that most businesses do not need to take action—businesses that act as value storage or process transactions through third-party payment providers are essentially unaffected. Businesses running their own full nodes can choose whether to switch to BIP-110 nodes. The core risk to be aware of is chain forking. If a fork occurs, miners should choose the branch expected to prevail or pause and wait; exchanges and custodians should increase confirmation requirements, monitor dual chains, and delay final settlements to prevent double spending and false confirmation risks. If there is no fork, no special actions are required.
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