bets

According to Cointelegraph, American real estate investor Grant Cardone made a $1 million bet to angel investor and Bitcoin critic Jason Calacanis, wagering that Bitcoin will reach or exceed $126,210.5 before October 28, 2028.

Renowned technology journalist Mark Gurman stated that Apple is betting that consumers are willing to pay a higher price for a MacBook Pro equipped with a touchscreen.

On the decentralized options platform Derive, a wallet purchased 800 Bitcoin call options with a strike price of $90,000 expiring on November 6, on October 20, with a nominal value of approximately $68 million, and netted about $940,000 by selling call options expiring in March and October 2027.Derive stated that this is the platform's largest open position in Bitcoin; the market's implied probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 before Christmas rose from 9.7% to 12%, indicating that some traders are betting on a rise in Bitcoin after the U.S. midterm elections.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell as the market increased bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates after the inflation data was released. The U.S. Dollar Index DXY rose nearly 40 points in the short term, currently reported at 102.52.In addition, the market has increased bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates three more times before the end of 2027.

According to Bloomberg, Coinbase co-founder Fred Ehrsam is betting personal funds on Venezuela's oil industry. He referred to this opportunity to become a significant oil producer as an "excellent opportunity" and compared it to the once-in-a-generation investment opportunities that helped him join the ranks of billionaires.The startup founded by Fred Ehrsam, Primavera, has recently signed multiple contracts with the state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) and is preparing to take over the operations of several oil fields in the country.Primavera has also hired senior oil industry professionals from Chevron and Occidental Petroleum to assist in building the necessary infrastructure to support the production of conventional oil and heavy crude.

The unresolved ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a rebound in crude oil prices, and the market's bets on another interest rate hike before the end of the year are heating up, putting pressure on the gold and silver markets once again. According to CoinGlass data, gold (XAU) is currently priced at $4,183.22, with a 24-hour decline of 0.61%; silver (XAG) is currently priced at $60.25, with a 24-hour decline of 1.42%.During the market fluctuations, the trading volume of related contracts on Gate has continued to rise: the trading volume of Gate silver contracts reached $124 million in 24 hours, ranking second in the industry; the trading volume of Gate gold contracts reached $363 million in 24 hours, firmly holding third place in the industry; meanwhile, the open interest of Gate XAU gold contracts reached $411 million, ranking second in the industry.Gate has pioneered the trading sector for perpetual metal contracts and CFD contracts, covering mainstream metal trading targets such as gold, silver, and platinum, supporting 24/7 trading and USDT settlement. Relying on Gate's innovative unified account system, users can configure diverse assets such as stocks, metals, foreign exchange, indices, and commodities without cross-platform operations, helping users achieve a more flexible and efficient one-stop global asset strategy layout amid volatile markets.

According to a report by The Block citing The Wall Street Journal, the prediction market platform Kalshi is investigating several trades that correctly bet on Trump appointing Katie Zacharia as White House Press Secretary before the announcement was made. Trump confirmed the appointment in a post on Truth Social on Friday afternoon, with Zacharia replacing Karoline Leavitt.At least three bets totaling approximately $173 were placed before the media reported on the candidate, with the market expected to pay out about $9,600 in total after settlement. One bet of about $19 was placed around 10:42 PM (Eastern Time) on Thursday, with an expected payout of $1,896; two other bets of approximately $74 and $80 were placed around 1:41 PM on Friday, with expected payouts of $3,689 and $4,023, respectively.The report stated that a few days before the news broke, Kalshi traders assigned a probability of about 1% to Zacharia. This investigation comes after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reached a settlement in August with a former White House teleprompter operator who had traded on markets related to Trump’s speeches on Kalshi.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the prediction market platform Kalshi is investigating betting activity related to "Trump's press secretary candidate" on its platform. Three bets, amounting to approximately $19, $74, and $80, appeared before the reports of Katie Zacharia being selected were published.The report states that the contract ultimately settled at "yes," but it remains unclear whether the related accounts are subject to withdrawal restrictions.

Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo stated during a panel discussion at the Token2049 conference with OKX CEO Star Xu that if the cryptocurrency industry wants to push for federal-level cryptocurrency legislation, it must maintain a balance between supporting the Democratic and Republican parties. He pointed out that the industry previously "believed that heavy investment in the Republican Party" would help pass the CLARITY Act, but "when you heavily invest in the Republican Party, you inherently alienate the Democratic Party."According to data tracked by Tech Influence Watch, cryptocurrency-related political action committees have spent $54.3 million supporting the Republican Party and $26.2 million supporting the Democratic Party in the 2026 election cycle, with an additional $23.2 million spent opposing Democratic candidates. Cuomo stated that passing legislation requires support from both the Democratic and Republican parties and should be more balanced. He also refuted the notion that the Democratic Party is inherently opposed to cryptocurrency, arguing that cryptocurrency is actually well-suited for the Democratic Party because it empowers individuals who previously could not access financial products. Prediction market Kalshi data shows that the probability of the Democratic Party winning both houses of Congress is about 61%.In terms of background, the House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act in July 2025 with the support of 78 Democratic representatives and 216 Republican representatives, while 134 Democratic representatives voted against it; in June 2025, the Senate passed the GENIUS Act with support from 18 Democratic senators.

Market traders cut bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in October.

According to Fortune, the venture capital firm Solari Capital has officially announced its emergence from stealth mode. Founder AJ Scaramucci (son of Anthony Scaramucci) has deployed approximately $350 million since the company's inception, covering early-stage investments, late-stage growth rounds, and internal incubation businesses.Solari is focused on four major tracks centered around the core argument of "programmable reality": programmable intelligence (AI/large models, including xAI, Suno), programmable biology (gene therapy, longevity technology, including Tessera Therapeutics, Cambrian Bio), programmable materials (aerospace, energy, robotics, including Varda Space, Northwood Space), and programmable finance (blockchain infrastructure, DeFi, including Genius Terminal, Architect Financial). In addition, Scaramucci has included collectibles (comics, trading cards, dinosaur fossils) in the investment landscape, viewing them as "cultural value storage" assets alongside gold and Bitcoin, and claims that this market has a scale of $25 trillion, which has not yet been fully tapped by institutional capital.The investor lineup behind the company includes well-known Silicon Valley figures such as Ron Conway, Jim Breyer, and Eric Schmidt.

The Cyber Investigation Department of the Gangwon Special Self-Governing Province Police Agency in South Korea has identified 26 Polymarket users by analyzing public blockchain transaction records and on-chain open-source intelligence, and has filed cases against them for suspected illegal gambling. Among them, 18 have been referred to the prosecution, with a total bet amount of 12.7 million USD, and the highest single user bet reaching 4.1 million USD.The police launched a preliminary investigation in March and began filing cases against the involved individuals in May; the South Korean Communications Commission only ordered the blocking of Polymarket on August 18, and the transactions under investigation occurred while the platform was still accessible. The police are advancing the investigation based on Article 246 of the South Korean Criminal Code.

The Federal Reserve's FOMC unanimously decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. The latest dot plot shows that 16 officials expect at least one more rate hike by 2026, with the median rate expectations for 2027 and 2026 both at 4.1%.Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that recent data shows the U.S. economy is performing strongly, and the labor market remains resilient, but inflation is too high and has persisted for too long. The FOMC is currently not confident that inflation is moving toward the 2% target. He mentioned that the main issue for the current economy is not growth, but inflation. Waller also noted that the rise in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by a strong U.S. economy, increased capital competition, and geopolitical factors.From the announcement of the decision to Waller's press conference, spot gold briefly fell by about $100, the U.S. dollar index rose by about 40 points and broke through the 100 mark, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by about 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield rose by about 5 basis points, with U.S. stocks turning lower across the board. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in an additional rate hike of about 33 basis points this year and expect a cumulative increase of about 75 basis points by June next year.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell after the inflation data was released, as the market increased bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September.

After the release of U.S. data, U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell slightly, and the market increased its bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

After the non-farm payroll data was released, the US Dollar Index DXY rose sharply by 34 points, reaching 99.36 points. The market increased its bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September.

According to GMGN data, trader LaserCat previously invested about $10,700 betting on a bull market, currently with an unrealized profit of about $1,123,200, yielding a return of 10,467.74%.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell, with market pricing indicating an increase in bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike following remarks by Fed Chair Waller.