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Tonight's Federal Reserve meeting preview: The "pause" in rate hikes in October is almost certain, how it will affect the probability of a rate hike in December becomes the focus

The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on the 29th. The market generally expects the federal funds rate target range to remain unchanged at 3.75%--4.00%, with a probability of maintaining the status quo at over 90%. The wording of the statement and whether Chair Waller's press conference will release more hawkish signals, as well as how this will affect the market's significantly priced probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, have become the focus of attention.Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Credit Agricole all expect a pause in October and a 25 basis point hike in December. Goldman Sachs stated that if rate hikes continue every other meeting through 2027, a hike in March may be considered, but the baseline forecast does not expect a hike in March. Citigroup mentioned that if the stock market continues to weaken, leading to a sharp tightening of financial conditions, the likelihood of a shift to rate cuts will significantly increase. Moody's believes there will not and should not be another rate hike this week. Nomura Securities expects no change in October and stated that while the Federal Reserve guides expectations for a pause, it retains flexibility for a rate hike in December.TD Securities expects no change in October and anticipates two more hikes in December and March. Huatai Securities expects no change in October, with two hawkish voters possibly casting dissenting votes, with the baseline scenario being one rate hike in December this year and two hikes next year. Morgan Stanley expects a 25 basis point hike in both December and March next year. Bank of New York Mellon expects rates to peak slightly above 4.5%. Bank of America believes there is ample reason to raise rates in October; if they remain unchanged, they will only retain one option for a future hike.

Meta Q3 Financial Report: Revenue grew by 26%, meeting expectations, while the billion-dollar legal expenses and AI capital expenditures pose a dual challenge

Meta announced its third-quarter 2026 performance early this morning Beijing time, with revenue of $64.601 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%, exceeding market consensus expectations (approximately $63.3 to $63.7 billion). Net profit was $9.860 billion, a year-on-year increase of 264%, with a GAAP diluted earnings per share of $3.83.Operating profit decreased by 37% year-on-year to $12.988 billion, and the operating profit margin fell to about 20% (compared to about 40% in the same period last year), mainly due to a legal expense of $9.89 billion. This expense is related to the agreement reached with the attorneys general of various states in the U.S. regarding lawsuits related to youth mental health and social media, with a total payment cap of approximately $18.59 billion. Excluding this expense, operating profit was $22.88 billion, corresponding to an adjusted diluted earnings per share of approximately $7.40.The significant year-on-year growth in net profit was also influenced by the low base effect of the previous year's effective tax rate, which was as high as 87%; the effective tax rate for this quarter was 24%. Ad impressions increased by 10% year-on-year, and the average ad price rose by 14%. Family daily active people were approximately 3.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Family of Apps revenue was approximately $64.16 billion, of which ad revenue was about $63.06 billion; Reality Labs revenue was approximately $443 million, with an operating loss of about $4.13 billion.Capital expenditures for the third quarter (including principal payments on finance leases) were approximately $34.9 billion, with free cash flow of negative $2.12 billion, and cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities at the end of the quarter were approximately $82.4 billion. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue to be between $73 billion and $76 billion. The full-year capital expenditure guidance has been narrowed to $135 billion to $145 billion, and the full-year expense guidance has been raised to $175 billion to $179 billion, mainly due to the inclusion of legal expenses; excluding this expense, full-year operating profit is still expected to be higher than in 2025. The company also expects Reality Labs operating losses in 2026 to be approximately $18 to $19 billion, with hopes of narrowing next year.According to Gate market data, possibly influenced by the earnings report information, META's stock price rose by 2.17% in after-hours trading.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Before the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin is likely to continue its fluctuations, with the lower edge of 80,000 USD possibly being tested first

Bitcoin has been trapped in the range of $80,000 to $84,000 for the past two weeks. Huobi HTX's chief analyst Cloud believes that this is essentially a balance of two opposing forces: ETFs have seen a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, while exchange holdings continue to flow out, and long-term holders are only moderately cashing out. In the week leading up to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Bitcoin is likely to continue waiting in this range. The CME has only priced in a 16% chance of a rate hike in October, while economists generally believe it is close to a 50-50 chance. This discrepancy in pricing and opinions will make funds hesitant to bet in advance.If a direction is chosen in advance, the possibility of a downward test is slightly higher: the funding rate remains high, and the options skew continues to lean towards puts, indicating that bulls have not yet cleared out, and the demand for downside protection is still increasing. However, there has been effective support formed multiple times below $80,000 in the past month, making a downward breakout more likely to be a false breakout.Confirmation signals for a breakout are divided into two groups: for an upward breakout, the daily close needs to be above $84,200, with a cumulative net inflow of over $500 million into ETFs for three consecutive days, and the funding rate not exceeding 15%; for a downward breakout, it must fall below $79,800, with a single-week ETF outflow exceeding $500 million, while exchange funds turn into net inflows. The true source of direction will come from the interest rate decision announced at midnight on October 29, Beijing time, and the nearly 89% pricing for a rate hike in December.Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment products.

Enterprise WeChat and WorkBuddy are deeply integrated, allowing access to chat and meeting records

According to Beating reports, Tencent announced a deep integration of WeChat Work and WorkBuddy. In the new version of WeChat Work 5.0.12, WorkBuddy enters the corporate address book, allowing employees to chat with it, assign tasks, or pull it into work groups just like they would with colleagues, for summarizing group chats, organizing meeting to-dos, drafting emails, and returning results directly upon completion.WorkBuddy 5.8.0 supports logging in with a WeChat Work account. Within the scope of corporate authorization, it can access 10 office capabilities including chat messages, documents, meetings, and WeChat Cloud. Employees do not need to repeatedly upload materials, as they can handle tasks by combining previous discussions and project files, with results saved to WeChat Cloud with one click. The WorkBuddy bot can also connect to WeChat Work's built-in AI assistant "DaYuan" to collaboratively handle more complex tasks.Administrators can assign WorkBuddy accounts, set data access permissions, and through the "Observability Center," which will begin public testing on October 13, view the points consumption of various departments, model usage, task duration, and track which specific execution steps encountered issues. The new interoperability features are open to certified WeChat Work enterprises and offer a limited free trial quota.
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