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According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute currently holds approximately 102.1 million USD in perpetual contract short positions and continues to deposit more funds to increase its short exposure.Data shows that its total exposure is 122.23 million USD, with unrealized profits of about 928,400 USD, a loss of 12.04 million USD in the past 30 days, and a historical cumulative profit of approximately 176.88 million USD from perpetual contracts. Among them, the largest position is a short position of 15,330 ETH, valued at about 38.47 million USD.

White House economic advisor Hassett stated, "Both Trump and I believe there is no reason to raise interest rates, and it is important for the Federal Reserve to maintain the status quo before the election. Trump fully respects Waller's independence."

CoinShares Research Director James Butterfill stated that Bitcoin is currently facing an "unusual combination"—short-term bearish and medium-term bullish factors are present at the same time.In the short term, the U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, higher than market expectations. Butterfill said, "The CPI data is marginally negative, increasing the probability of monetary policy tightening, which may limit Bitcoin's immediate upside potential." CME FedWatch data showed that market bets on the Federal Reserve's next rate hike reached as high as 85%.In the medium term, he pointed out that the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buyback program has failed to effectively lower long-term yields. If this situation continues, it may force authorities to implement larger intervention measures, raising concerns about currency depreciation, which would instead benefit Bitcoin and gold valuations. CoinShares believes that Bitcoin's short-term upside may be limited to below $80,000.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that this cycle may be the one with the most activity from long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin. He observed related changes through the CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) heatmap, which tracks the number of days BTC is held before being spent or transferred; the transfer of BTC by long-term holders is usually associated with selling intentions.The increase in LTH activity during this cycle may benefit from the market liquidity brought by spot ETFs and companies establishing Bitcoin treasury reserves. However, the rise in CDD is not only seen at market tops; it may also reflect the capitulation behavior of some holders.He added that Coinbase previously transferred 800,000 BTC, a large portion of which had been held for over 6 months. Such asset migrations can also cause a temporary rise in CDD, but they are considered incidental events. Currently, with Bitcoin's recent rise, LTH activity has slightly increased, possibly because some holders wish to realize quick profits; however, overall, related activities are still relatively calm for 2026, and long-term holders are still waiting.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, Wintermute (0xf819...73AA) deposited 61,847 ETH to Binance and Coinbase in the past 3 hours, worth 160.3 million USD.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell after the inflation data was released, as the market increased bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September.

According to Gate market data, spot gold has plunged over 50 dollars in the short term, currently reported at 4,305 dollars per ounce.

Bitcoin News posted on platform X that after the CFTC approved Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual contracts as futures products, traders face uncertainty on how to report gains to the IRS.If the product is classified as a regulated futures contract under Section 1256 of the U.S. Tax Code, related gains are typically treated as 60% long-term capital gains and 40% short-term capital gains, regardless of the holding period. CME believes that Kalshi's perpetual contracts are actually swaps, which are explicitly not covered under Section 1256. The CFTC's classification supports the view that it is a futures product, but does not bind the IRS; the tax treatment remains uncertain until the IRS, Congress, or the courts directly address Bitcoin perpetual contracts.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that short-term holders of Bitcoin, holding for no more than 6 months, have transferred a total of 549,300 BTC to exchanges.During the same period, the price of Bitcoin rose from $64,000 to $78,000, an increase of about 21%; after reaching a local high of $81,800, it fell by about 4.1%, but still retained most of the gains.

According to GMGN data, the market capitalization of the Meme coin UPONLY on the BSC chain briefly surpassed 4 million USD, with an intraday increase of over 90 times, currently reported at approximately 3.7 million USD.According to community information, the concept of UPONLY originates from CZ's earlier proposal of "stocks that will never go down," which means using reserve funds for buybacks whenever the price drops by a certain amount, to create a price support mechanism.ChainCatcher reminds users that the price of Meme coins is highly volatile, largely relying on market sentiment and conceptual speculation, with no actual value support at present. Investors should pay attention to asset safety and participate cautiously.

According to CoinDesk, DoubleZero has integrated Kalshi's election and political prediction market data into its low-latency data platform DoubleZero Edge, providing real-time order book information for institutional and automated traders. This subscription data stream covers transactions, best bid and ask prices, and market depth aggregated by price, distributed through DoubleZero's contributor-driven fiber network built on Solana.DoubleZero co-founder Austin Federa stated that prediction markets are becoming a source of real-time information, but their value depends on the speed of action. If debates, court rulings, or breaking news change market direction within seconds, delayed snapshots become outdated. Placing Kalshi's real-time order book data for elections and politics on DoubleZero Edge can convert probabilities into machine-readable market data for professional traders and AI systems to consume and execute in real-time.This launch coincides with the acceleration of trading related to the U.S. midterm elections. According to data from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, as of August 10, bets on the 2026 congressional elections on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US have exceeded $133 million, surpassing the $92.4 million for the entire 2024 congressional election cycle. Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market exchange, and the midterm elections on November 3 will determine control of Congress.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, Wintermute obtained 2.5 million tokens from the $LAPTOP project team and immediately began selling them on-chain. Currently, 466,255 tokens have been sold at an average price of $4.47, cashing out approximately 2.08 million USD, with about 2.03 million tokens remaining to be disposed of.

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, 21 hours ago, Wintermute received 2.5 million LAPTOP from the LAPTOP multi-signature address, and subsequently distributed the relevant tokens to multiple exchange deposit addresses.Previously, GSR Markets and G20 received market-making tokens a few days ago, and Wintermute may be a newly added market-making participant. If this transfer is indeed part of a market-making arrangement, the total amount of LAPTOP actually used for market-making will increase to 23 million tokens, accounting for 2.3% of the total supply. Among them, GSR Markets received 15.5 million, G20 received 5 million, and Wintermute received 2.5 million.

Nomura's "China Internet and New Media" monthly research report shows that in July, Douyin's average monthly usage time per user surpassed WeChat for the first time, becoming the top app in terms of usage time in the country.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a certain Ethereum OG whale sold 11,000 ETH through Wintermute one hour ago, worth 27.23 million USD.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that, reflecting on his observations since entering the cryptocurrency industry at the end of 2015, the choice of direction is crucial aside from personal efforts. He believes that the groups that can achieve long-term results more easily in the cryptocurrency industry mainly include three categories.One category is the holders of BTC / ETH / BNB, including mining, holding coins, and mining pools, which is a time compound interest return. Another category is those involved in trading infrastructure, including quantitative arbitrage, trading platforms, and stablecoins. The last category is projects and market makers, which belong to asset issuance and asset control.Yi Lihua also mentioned that investors and contract players overall experience more failures than successes; the model is similar to that of hunters, where one must go out to hunt every day to have something to eat, with low compound returns amidst high risks.

Wintermute released a market update indicating that the non-farm payroll data for August exceeded expectations, pushing the interest rate hike probability to nearly 60%. Bitcoin briefly retreated from $82,400 but still closed the week up 3.45%, standing above $80,000. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $987 million, marking three consecutive weeks of positive inflows, totaling nearly $3.8 billion. This indicates that the crypto market has withstood the test of hawkish data.Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its peak, which is significantly less than the over 75% declines seen in the same periods of 2018 and 2022, reflecting earlier involvement from ETFs and institutional funds. Wintermute believes that capital is flowing from stocks and gold into crypto assets, forming the premise for a new cycle. $82,000 is a key level that needs to be broken, while $72,000 is the point to judge a trend change. The voting on the CLARITY Act, along with the CPI and FOMC meetings, are all scheduled for next week. The end of the Robinhood Chain Gas subsidy at the end of September will be the first test of the sustainability of activity. If Bitcoin falls below $72,000 and ETF outflows turn significantly negative, a reassessment will be necessary.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the supply ratio of long-term Bitcoin holders has significantly increased during this pullback, with many traders buying and holding for over 6 months during the dip.This is a common global behavior during bear markets or significant pullbacks, where long-term holders have much lower Bitcoin liquidity, helping to form a solid bottom support. This is a positive signal on a long-term level, slowly accumulating.