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According to Jinshi reports, market sources say that Ukrainian drones attacked the grain export terminal in Russia's Taman Port, causing significant damage.

According to Jinshi reports, due to rising concerns over the escalation of the Middle East conflict, the long-term international bonds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE fell by more than 1 cent.

According to The Block, Bernstein has lowered Circle's target price from $190 to $140 while maintaining an outperform rating. Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated that the threat posed to Circle by the Open USD Alliance, supported by over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe, is lower than market expectations. As of July 28, Circle's closing price was $64.32.The end-of-quarter supply of USDC for the second quarter was approximately $73 billion, down from $77 billion in the first quarter, with the average supply rising to about $76 billion. The average SOFR for the second quarter decreased to 3.62%, the reserve return rate fell to 3.46%, and reserve income rose to approximately $655 million. The USDC balance on Hyperliquid has increased from $5 billion in mid-May to over $6 billion, generating about $210 million in annualized gross reserve income, of which approximately $190 million is directed to the exchange according to the revenue-sharing agreement.Bernstein has reduced its forecast for USDC supply at the end of 2026 by 37% to $83 billion and lowered its 2028 forecast to $170 billion; the adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2026 has been cut by 12% to $602 million, and the earnings per share (EPS) forecast has been lowered from $1.98 to $0.92. However, the firm expects that by 2035, the total supply of stablecoins will reach $4 trillion, with Circle holding about a 30% share. Additionally, Circle received final approval from the OCC in July to establish Circle National Trust.

According to Gate market data, the three major U.S. stock index futures have slightly declined in the short term, with Dow futures down 0.13%, S&P 500 futures down 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.02%.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the scale of BTC long-term holders transferring their holdings to trading platforms has recently risen to a high level. Currently, long-term holders contribute 5.1% of the total Bitcoin inflow to trading platforms. This ratio is close to the historical record, only having been higher than the current level in 2020, approaching 5.5%. This change occurred after a significant drop in Bitcoin prices.Since a 90-day moving average is used, this indicator has a certain lag, and changes will not immediately reflect the latest market dynamics. In the future, this trend is likely to gradually stabilize, but based on current data, the trading activity of long-term holders has clearly become more active recently.

The Federal Reserve will hold the FOMC monetary policy meeting from July 28 to 29, and the market is closely watching the direction of interest rate adjustments, inflation trends, and the policy signals released by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and officials. In the context of macro events driving market volatility, Gate event contracts are becoming a focus tool for some investors participating in the FOMC trading cycle. This product revolves around the price direction of BTC and ETH in short cycles such as 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 1 hour, and 4 hours, allowing users to make market arrangements in advance based on their predictions of macro policy outcomes and market trends.Compared to traditional derivatives, event contracts adopt a probability pricing model, with each contract priced between 0.01 to 0.99 USDT, and a minimum participation threshold of 1.5 USDT. The product mechanism does not introduce leverage, does not involve margin calls or forced liquidations, and the user's maximum loss is limited to the principal paid at the time of purchase; if the directional judgment is correct, it will be settled at 1 USDT per contract upon expiration. Under key nodes such as macro policies, this model provides users with a trading method that has clear risk boundaries and a lower participation threshold.In addition, Gate event contracts have launched a "New User First Order Compensation" activity, opening a $20,000 prize pool. Eligible new users who complete their first transaction and incur a loss can receive compensation rewards according to the rules.As the FOMC decision and subsequent policy statements are about to be announced, market sentiment may undergo further changes, and Gate event contracts provide users with a new way to participate in short-cycle market trading.

According to Jinshi, Lloyd Chan, a senior foreign exchange analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, pointed out in a research report that the US dollar may gain support in the short term due to high US Treasury yields and the ongoing tense situation in the Middle East. He stated that this week's Federal Reserve decision is likely to become a key catalyst for the market. Although no policy changes are expected, the market's focus will be on the guidance from the Federal Reserve.In addition, Chan also mentioned that the issue of US tariffs is becoming a focus of market attention again.

According to Jinshi reports, BlueBay Chief Investment Officer Mark Dowding pointed out in a report that investors have reason to believe that Federal Reserve Chairman Waller will tend to make hawkish statements and do everything possible to consolidate his anti-inflation reputation, although he will not take any actual action at this time. This may further flatten the U.S. yield curve in the short term.Dowding also mentioned that given the continued deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation and the rising expenditures of Trump in the Middle East conflict, these factors may lead to a steepening of the yield curve at some point in the future.

Renowned trader Killa stated that during the last Bitcoin bull market, about 80% of the cycle top indicators were never triggered, and similar situations may occur with future bottom indicators, so one should not mechanically rely on historical signals to determine market bottoms. He pointed out that the supply of long-term holders currently in a loss state has exceeded the levels during the FTX collapse and is approaching the levels seen during the 2018 bear market.Bitcoin's realized price is currently around $50,000, and in past cycles, the price has tested the realized price of long-term holders, so there is still a possibility of returning to that area. However, Killa indicated that it should not be assumed that Bitcoin will necessarily fall back to this level. Many top indicators in the last cycle failed to trigger, and some bottom indicators may also fail in the future. In any case, the current level of market losses is similar to that during the FTX incident and the 2018 bear market.

Zhao Changpeng reposted a previous post on the X platform about "whether to find the best entry point for long-term holding in a bull market or bear market," and replied "DCA."DCA stands for Dollar-Cost Averaging, which refers to investors investing funds at fixed intervals, reducing the impact of price fluctuations at a single point in time on the cost of their holdings by buying in batches.Zhao Changpeng also stated that if one does not understand this term, they can search and learn on their own, and emphasized that mastering basic financial terminology is very important.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that there has been a noticeable increase in on-chain activity from the oldest group of Bitcoin holders recently. Data shows that the daily UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) movement for BTC holders with holding periods of 5 to 7 years and 7 to 10 years has exceeded 5000 BTC multiple times.Darkfost pointed out that the spending of UTXOs does not necessarily mean selling. Long-term holders typically move Bitcoin for two main reasons: one is for security considerations, such as changing wallet addresses which leads to the transfer of UTXOs from the original address; the other is to sell assets. However, current on-chain data does not show a significant flow of funds to exchanges, indicating that these long-term holders are not currently engaging in large-scale selling of BTC. It is noteworthy that this behavior occurs as Bitcoin tests the $60,000 mark again, similar to market trends observed from February to March this year. The market will continue to monitor whether the activities of long-term holders will further impact the supply and demand dynamics of BTC.

A report jointly released by the Bitcoin collateral lending platform CoinRabbit and the computing power platform GoMining points out that managing Bitcoin is more important than mining it. As the block reward drops to 3.125 BTC and the overall network difficulty approaches historical highs, low electricity prices and high uptime only constitute a survival baseline. What truly differentiates mining companies is the method of handling Bitcoin after it is mined.The report suggests that mining companies are shifting from direct sales to collateralized lending to cover recurring expenses such as electricity, custody, and labor. This approach retains exposure to holding Bitcoin while generating cash flow, avoids taxable sales, and preserves the deduction space for operating expenses. The trade-off is that mining companies simultaneously bear the dual risks of price and liquidation when Bitcoin prices decline.Jeremy Dreier, Chief Business Development Officer of GoMining, stated that the miners who can succeed after the halving are those who operate efficiently and have set aside cash in advance for this purpose. The current decline in Bitcoin prices has actually lowered the cost of increasing computing power, creating a window of opportunity for investing in expanding mining machines.

According to Jinshi reports, Google (GOOG.O) disclosed its holdings in SpaceX (SPCX.O) in its 10-Q report, indicating that it holds shares worth $94 billion after SpaceX goes public.As of June 30, the tradable equity securities include $80 billion in SpaceX shares, which are subject to short-term sale restrictions.