uncertainty

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the ETF engine has hardly operated this year, with net inflows close to zero from the beginning of the year to now, yet Bitcoin has only dropped 7%. In the context of weak ETF demand while prices remain strong, the likelihood of OG whales or miners selling off in large quantities seems low; those who wanted to sell may have already done so.Ki Young Ju expects that once the uncertainty of the U.S. midterm elections dissipates and ETF capital inflows resume, bullish momentum will return.

According to Cointelegraph, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev stated during the third quarter earnings call on Tuesday that there is uncertainty about whether U.S. tokenization rules can be sustained in the long term, which may hinder investors from allocating large assets into the tokenized market. He described the five-year innovation exemption granted by the SEC in September as "a very positive step," but emphasized that further rule-making or legislation is needed to bring long-term regulatory certainty.Tenev noted that the uncertainty regarding the direction of the rules after five years is likely to become an obstacle to allocating large assets to this technology when communicating with clients. Tokenized stocks have previously faced resistance from traditional issuers, with 16 companies including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Goldman Sachs opposing their stocks being listed on the proposed OKXICE platform. AMC CEO Adam Aron has also publicly criticized Robinhood's tokenized stock products.Robinhood currently offers about 200 stock tokens on the Robinhood Chain, supported by the underlying stocks, but constructed in the form of tokenized debt securities, providing only economic exposure without dividend and voting rights, thus falling outside the scope of the SEC innovation exemption that requires rights parity. Tenev stated that tokenized stocks of private companies will be launched overseas, while seeking a path that complies with accredited investor restrictions within the United States. Binance Research's baseline scenario predicts that the market size could reach $34.9 billion by 2030, with approximately $4.43 billion as of September 15.

Smart wearable device company OURA has postponed its IPO plans due to market uncertainty. The company previously planned to issue 50 million shares to raise up to $2.2 billion.OURA is currently profitable and is expected to see a 90% year-over-year revenue growth in fiscal year 2026. CEO Tom Hale stated that the company still has flexibility in choosing the timing.

Coinbase Vice Chairman Ryan VanGrack stated on CNBC that the era of uncertainty in cryptocurrency regulation is coming to an end, and clear rules will come through Congress or regulatory agencies.VanGrack mentioned that the over 600-page CLARITY Act is closer than ever to gaining bipartisan support, backed by law enforcement groups, Wall Street firms, and crypto voters. He also stated that the SEC and CFTC have clearly indicated that new rules will be introduced regardless.VanGrack said: It's time to choose policy over politics and get this done.

David Sacks, Chairman of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, stated on the X platform that using regulatory uncertainty as a competitive tool is "completely unacceptable." Regulatory decisions should be based on facts, logic, and evidence, rather than deliberately creating fear and uncertainty (FUD). He is unsure whether venture capitalist and AI policy researcher Dean Ball is acknowledging a strategy of "regulatory capture" or merely predicting that such a situation will occur. However, in any case, the practice of issuing "soft law" warnings through regulatory agencies to create market panic, thereby forcing regulated companies away from Chinese open-source models, should not be accepted.David Sacks pointed out that Dean Ball believes there is no need to directly ban Chinese open-source models; it is sufficient to guide regulatory agencies to issue relevant warnings, which can influence corporate decision-making by creating enough doubt and uncertainty, and these reasons "do not even need to be very substantial." Any regulatory decision must have sufficient basis, rather than implementing policies by "artificially creating doubt." He warned that this practice of circumventing public deliberation procedures not only undermines the foundation of the rule of law but may also open the door to regulatory abuse against any company or individual in the future.David Sacks further stated that current AI policy is at a critical turning point. Leading closed-source laboratories, which have already formed a duopoly in AI model revenue, are attempting to use government power to eliminate open-source competitors. He called on other companies and developers in Silicon Valley that still support open competition to make clear statements to jointly maintain an open ecosystem in the field of AI.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that the environment of low hiring and low layoffs is driven by uncertainty, particularly concerns about artificial intelligence.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that respondents generally expect the U.S. economy to continue expanding in the coming months, but several districts pointed out that there remains a high level of uncertainty regarding fuel cost prospects.

According to Jinshi reports, Ritesh Ganeriwal, the investment and consulting director at Syfe, stated that the tightening signals released by the Federal Reserve in its statement suggest that inflation risks have not dissipated, even if the conflict in Iran ends and energy supplies return to normal. Ganeriwal mentioned that while there is still a possibility of interest rate hikes this year, this action is far from certain and the threshold is very high. He pointed out that if a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran can be maintained and oil prices remain at lower levels, the Federal Reserve may find fewer reasons to raise interest rates.

According to Jinshi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe there is a high level of uncertainty regarding the unemployment rate, with risks roughly balanced. Compared to the predictions in March, the current majority of participants believe the uncertainty is high, with risks tilted to the upside.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicated that despite the high uncertainty brought by the Middle East conflict, economic activity continues to expand at a steady pace.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the economic outlook is highly uncertain.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicates that the developments in the Middle East have increased uncertainty in the economic outlook.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a live broadcast today at 20:00 (UTC+8) on the theme "Collapse of US-Iran Negotiations, Return of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Can Bitcoin Still Serve as a Safe Haven?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Oxpink, Domingo, Michill, Amber, AlanSun, and Qie Ge will be invited to attend and discuss hot topics such as the impact of geopolitical conflicts, oil price fluctuations, and increased uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies on the crypto market, as well as whether the market has entered an "institution-led phase."

According to Cryptopolitan, Coinbase Institutional has given a neutral outlook for the second quarter market, citing macro and geopolitical uncertainties such as the Iran conflict that make predictions highly unreliable.Coinbase referenced a Bank of America fund manager survey indicating that cash holdings rose nearly one percentage point to 4.3% in a single month, the fastest accumulation rate in five years. Despite the recent S&P 500 experiencing declines of three to four standard deviations, Bitcoin only underwent a one standard deviation pullback, showing relative strength. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded approximately $471 million in net inflows on April 6, marking the strongest single-day performance in six weeks, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the way.The institutional holding ratio has increased from 24% a year ago to about 38%, with hedge funds, pension funds, and others collectively holding over $40 billion in shares. Morgan Stanley began listing its Bitcoin ETF on the NYSE on April 8, becoming the first major U.S. bank to directly issue a spot Bitcoin ETF.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the uncertainty of the inflation path is "very high."

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that the economy will expand at a rate of about 2% or slightly above 2% this year, but there is a high level of uncertainty.