Bitget UEX Daily Report | Oil prices plummet over 7%; tech stocks rebound but fail to hold; Apple and Palantir release growth financial reports (November 3, 2026)

I. Selected Hot News

U.S. Economy | Manufacturing PMI Rises to 55.5, Price Pressures Ease

In October, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 54.5 to 55.5, marking the 10th consecutive month of expansion; the new orders index is at 55.5, and the production index increased to 59.0. The price index fell from 77.9 to 75.2, indicating that input prices are still rising, but the extent of the increase has narrowed.

This set of data reflects a coexistence of manufacturing growth and easing price pressures. For the market, resilient demand is beneficial for corporate revenues, but the price components remain high, which is not sufficient to support a clear judgment of a significant easing of monetary policy; tonight's job vacancy data will provide additional clues about labor demand.

International Energy | Diplomatic Expectations Cool Supply Concerns, Crude Oil Settlement Price Plummets

On November 2, WTI December crude oil futures settled at $96.46 per barrel, down about 7.4%; Brent January 2027 contracts settled at $104.77 per barrel, down about 7.6%. News related to U.S.-Iran diplomatic contacts prompted the market to reassess the Middle East supply risk premium.

The drop in oil prices helps alleviate transportation and some manufacturing cost pressures, but revenue expectations for energy companies are under pressure. The key going forward is whether diplomatic progress can translate into actual supply improvements; currently, it cannot be assumed that negotiation expectations equate to a ceasefire or full restoration of transportation.

Policy Window | U.S. Midterm Elections Enter Voting Day

November 3 local time in the U.S. is the federal election voting day, and the market will focus on the congressional landscape and its impact on fiscal, tax, and regulatory agendas. As of the time of this report, voting results have not yet been produced.

Today's trading needs to digest elections, employment data, and corporate earnings simultaneously. Policy expectations may lead to sector rotations, but it is important to distinguish between campaign statements, election results, and subsequent legislation; none of these steps should be directly equated to policy implementation.

II. Market Review

Commodity and Forex Performance

Variety | Reference Price | Data Source

Gold | $3,961.70 per ounce | COMEX December 2026 futures, around 09:06 on November 3

Silver | $50.415 per ounce | COMEX December 2026 futures, around 09:06 on November 3

WTI Crude Oil | $96.97 per barrel | NYMEX December 2026 futures, around 09:06 on November 3

Brent Crude Oil | $105.28 per barrel | January 2027 futures, around 09:06 on November 3

U.S. Dollar Index | 101.802 | Around 09:06 on November 3

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.894% | New York close reference on November 2

Crude oil is slightly higher than the previous trading day's settlement price this morning, but still within the price range after a significant drop; gold is close to $4,000, and the dollar index is below 102. The retreat in oil prices provides some easing space for inflation expectations, but tech stocks continue to face pressure, indicating that cost improvements have not yet offset market concerns about AI investment returns.

Cryptocurrency Performance

· BTC: Approximately 77,206.47 USDT, down 1.42% in 24 hours.

· ETH: Approximately 2,260.30 USDT, down 1.10% in 24 hours.

· Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.61 trillion, down 2.64% in 24 hours; this update time is 09:06 Beijing time.

BTC | Liquidation Zone Observation

The more obvious potential liquidation zone for shorts is around $78,400---$79,000, about 1.68%---2.45% away from the current price; the potential liquidation zone for longs is around $76,000---$76,600, about 0.66%---1.44% away. Currently, it is closer to the lower zone; if it continues to fall, attention should be paid to the volatility brought by the unwinding of long leverage.

ETH | Liquidation Zone Observation

The more obvious potential liquidation zone for shorts is around $2,305---$2,330, about 2.11%---3.22% away; the potential liquidation zone for longs is around $2,220---$2,240, about 0.77%---1.66% away. The lower end is closer; in the short term, observe the support and leverage pressure near $2,240.

Institutional Holding Cost | BTC

Glassnode released an estimated comprehensive cost of the U.S. spot BTC ETF on October 28, approximately $81,500, with the current coin price about 5.39% below this reference; Strategy disclosed on November 2 that as of November 1, it held 849,327 BTC, with an average cost including fees of about $75,451, and the current coin price is about 2.20% above this. The above difference is only the unleveraged change in coin price relative to holding costs and does not represent the overall returns for ETF investors or companies.

Market Summary

For BTC, first look at the lower liquidation zone near $76,600, and for ETH, first look at the lower liquidation zone near $2,240; if there is a rebound, then observe $78,400 and $2,305 respectively. The difference between Strategy's cost and the lower edge of the BTC liquidation zone is about 0.73%, which is worth observing in conjunction with the performance of long deleveraging and near-cost performance, but it cannot be assumed to provide support.

Major U.S. Stock Index Performance

Index | Closing Level | Daily Change

Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,983.98 | +0.41%

S&P 500 Index | 7,541.40 | -0.51%

NASDAQ Composite Index | 25,164.36 | -1.07%

The early rebound in U.S. stocks could not be maintained, ultimately showing a divergence with the Dow up, while the S&P and NASDAQ fell. The drop in oil prices improved cost expectations for some industries, but the financing and valuation pressures on tech-heavy stocks continued to weigh on the index.

Performance of the Seven Tech Giants

Company | Closing Price (USD) | Daily Change

NVIDIA NVDA | 202.06 | -1.26%

Apple AAPL | 338.32 | -1.83%

Microsoft MSFT | 507.12 | -2.83%

Alphabet GOOGL | 278.99 | -0.30%

Amazon AMZN | 245.63 | +2.20%

Meta META | 606.73 | -1.34%

Tesla TSLA | 403.82 | +1.00%

Two of the seven giants rose while five fell, with Amazon and Tesla rising, and Microsoft experiencing the largest decline. The decline in Apple occurred before the earnings report was released, so it cannot be used to evaluate the market reaction to the post-earnings report.

Sector Movement Observation

AI Infrastructure: Oracle fell 8.76%, Marvell fell 12.72%. The former plans to raise funds through stock and bond issuance, while the latter announced a large all-stock merger, with market focus extending to financing costs, equity dilution, and integration realization.

Energy and Aviation: ExxonMobil fell 4.05%, Chevron fell 3.29%, Delta Air Lines rose 4.08%. During the same period, oil prices plummeted, and energy producers and fuel users face different profit impacts.

Cryptocurrency-Related Stocks: Coinbase fell 3.98%, Robinhood fell 1.35%, Strategy rose 0.19%. The performance of related stocks is divergent, requiring judgment based on their respective trading businesses, financing arrangements, and asset exposures.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key U.S. Stocks

Apple (AAPL) | Revenue Growth, Profit Margins Still Need Separate Consideration

Event Overview: Apple fell 1.83% during regular trading on November 2, closing at $338.32, and subsequently announced fourth-quarter revenue for fiscal year 2026 of $114.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with diluted earnings per share of $2.10, a year-on-year increase of 14%. The gross margin is 47.9%, with tariff refunds contributing about 1 percentage point of favorable impact, and earnings per share also include $0.05 related earnings.

Market Interpretation: iPhone quarterly revenue and service revenue hit record highs, reflecting growth in product and ecosystem revenue; when assessing profit margins, the impact of refunds needs to be excluded, and not all improvements should be viewed as sustainable operating income.

Investment Insight: Focus on holiday season product demand, service growth, and sustainability of gross margins. The price reaction on the next complete trading day is more suitable for observing how the market digests this earnings report.

Palantir (PLTR) | Strong Commercial Growth, Order Continuity Becomes a Testing Point

Event Overview: Palantir fell 3.13% during regular trading, closing at $178.34, and announced third-quarter revenue of $2.313 billion, a year-on-year increase of 96%; U.S. commercial revenue was $984 million, a year-on-year increase of 148%. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $8.530 billion---$8.534 billion.

Market Interpretation: U.S. commercial revenue exceeded U.S. government revenue for the first time, indicating an expansion of customer structure. The total amount of new contracts signed during the same period increased by 6% year-on-year, which differs from the revenue growth rate; future observation should focus on whether contract conversions and new orders can continue to support high growth.

Investment Insight: Focus on tracking commercial customer expansion, order fulfillment, and GAAP profitability, rather than just revenue growth rates. This earnings report was released after the close, and the decline during regular trading does not represent the reaction after the earnings report.

Oracle (ORCL) | $20 Billion Financing Plan Amplifies Capital Expenditure Scrutiny

Event Overview: Oracle disclosed preliminary issuance documents on November 2, planning to issue $10 billion in common stock and an additional $10 billion in senior bonds, with the two issuances not conditional on each other. The stock price fell 8.76% that day, closing at $119.22; the planned issuance scale does not equal funds already received.

Market Interpretation: The market is simultaneously assessing equity dilution, financing costs, and AI expansion returns. Financing provides a source of funds, but whether it can create per-share value still depends on project utilization, revenue realization, and cash flow performance.

Investment Insight: Observe the final issuance terms, use of funds, and subsequent cash flow guidance, avoiding judgments on investment returns based solely on financing amounts or order scales.

IV. Market and Project Dynamics

Strategy disclosed weekly cryptocurrency purchases and capital arrangements. The company announced on November 2 that it purchased 811 BTC from October 26 to November 1, totaling approximately $65.5 million, with an average price including fees of $80,846; during the same period, it repurchased approximately $208.2 million in STRC. The cryptocurrency purchases belong to historical executions disclosed during the period and should not be written as new buying today.

Marvell and Lumentum signed a merger agreement. Both parties announced an all-stock transaction, with Lumentum common stock exchanging for 4.500 shares of Marvell common stock, expected to be completed in the first half of 2028, still subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. The transaction will further integrate electrical interconnect and optical technology, with future focus on dilution, approvals, and synergy realization.

Cryptocurrency leverage has not yet been fully cleared. Glassnode's weekly observation released on November 2 indicated that active selling of perpetual contracts drove the previous decline, but the pressure from positions and long funding remains relatively high, while spot buyers are performing relatively stable. This is a structural observation as of the week ending November 1 and should not be directly taken as today's capital flow.

Official Exchange Progress. Binance stated on November 2 that zero-knowledge proofs for the reserve snapshot on October 31 have been generated, and the balances of ten related tokens are available for user verification, while continuing to promote the recovery of other assets and network withdrawals; related losses will be borne by the platform.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Beijing Time | Country/Region | Event | Market Focus

November 3, 23:00 | United States | September JOLTS Job Openings Report | ★★★★

November 3, 23:00 | United States | September Factory Orders | ★★★

From the evening of November 3 to November 4, according to state arrangements | United States | Midterm Election Voting and Subsequent Counting | ★★★★★

After 05:00 on November 4 | United States | AMD plans to announce its third-quarter financial report after U.S. stock market hours | ★★★★

06:00 on November 4 | United States | AMD Financial Report Conference Call | ★★★★

Key Event Outlook: The JOLTS report needs to be analyzed in conjunction with job vacancies, hiring, and turnover to assess labor demand; AMD's financial report will provide insights into AI hardware demand and profit clues. The overlap of elections and financial reports requires caution in attributing stock changes solely to macro news.

Institutional View: Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management, pointed out on November 2 that there are limits to AI spending, and the key is whether shareholder value can continue to increase. In the current market context, attention should be paid to the ability to convert investments into cash returns.

This article is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice.