Macroeconomic Research and Trends

The cryptocurrency industry may gradually shift from the hype of native altcoins to real asset tokenization, on-chain machine economy, and a more mature industrialization phase.

The prices in this window are determined by emotions, amplified by leverage, driven by war narratives—rather than by crude oil supply and demand.

Polymarket's latest data shows that the market bets on the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16 is 80%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 21%.

Goldman Sachs shifted from predicting no action to betting on a 25 basis point rate hike next week, stating that this shift is not due to how bad the inflation data is—August's CPI, while not perfect, is not alarming either. The real key is: Waller's hawkish remarks have guided market expectations that "if the inflation data is not perfect, then there will be a rate hike." If the Federal Reserve backs down at this time, its credibility will be severely damaged, and long-term interest rates may react sharply immediately.

Barclays believes that the non-farm payrolls in August contain exaggerations, with strong growth partly stemming from a technical rebound in the leisure hotel and local education sectors, rather than reflecting a sustained improvement in labor demand. The birth-death model adjustments have also caused statistical biases. The three-month average of private non-farm payrolls at 75,000 is more valuable for reference. Barclays maintains its baseline forecast of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.

In August, the United States added 162,000 non-farm jobs, about three times the expected amount, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September has risen to about 60%. U.S. Treasury yields generally increased, and U.S. stocks closed lower, but the weekly trend still shows an upward movement. Investments in AI infrastructure and credit expansion continue to support the economy, and the market will focus on next week's CPI data to assess the Federal Reserve's policy path.

The Trump administration's "equity-for-subsidy" strategy has significantly boosted individual stocks like Intel and MP Materials, but the surge has mostly been a brief spike followed by a rapid decline. As the midterm elections approach, if the Democrats regain Congress, they will initiate congressional hearings that could severely impact the stock prices and brands of related companies; meanwhile, shareholder lawsuits are questioning the legality of the Chip Act's authorization, and a victory in these lawsuits could shake the entire stock portfolio.

The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" summarizes that the Fed may not have finished its fight against inflation. The key point of Waller's speech is that financial conditions are not restrictive, and inflation improvement is still insufficient. He did not provide a specific policy path or clarify whether he supports a rate hike in September. The short end of the U.S. Treasury market suggests a rate hike, while the long end remains more calm. Wall Street has not reached a consensus on a mandatory rate hike in September. Barclays and Societe Generale expect rate hikes in September and December this year. Industry insiders believe that Waller suggests the market should be prepared for a rate hike, but investors want GPS, and he only provides a compass. He still deliberately refuses forward guidance, saying a lot but providing no substantial content.

Overall, Waller's speech at Jackson Hole this time released a relatively clear cautious hawkish signal.

Bank of America believes that under the backdrop of the Treasury increasing the repurchase of long-term bonds and the dollar being under pressure, if Waller can clearly signal anti-inflation measures and the possibility of restarting interest rate hikes when necessary, it will help stabilize the market and flatten the yield curve; conversely, if he avoids policy statements, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries may test the high of 5.5%, and the dollar will also face a new round of downward pressure.