Macroeconomic Research and Trends

The cryptocurrency industry may gradually shift from the hype of native altcoins to real asset tokenization, on-chain machine economy, and a more mature industrialization phase.

The prices in this window are determined by emotions, amplified by leverage, driven by war narratives—rather than by crude oil supply and demand.

The Federal Reserve is highly likely to remain unchanged tonight, but this may be the most unsettled "pause" in recent years. The money market indicates a 32% probability of a rate hike, and UBS economists bluntly state that the level of uncertainty is the highest in 20 years. Internal hawkish divisions are widening, with Waller's policy style becoming a mystery, and institutions like Citadel have clearly bet on external rate hikes. JPMorgan estimates that if rates are increased by 25 basis points, the S&P 500 could plummet by more than 2%—tonight, "no change" itself may also be a shock.

Wosh faces the strategic choice of lowering long-term interest rates through interest rate hikes. Although this week's interest rate hike is not a baseline scenario, market expectations are heating up. The historical "Greenspan dilemma" indicates that aggressive interest rate hikes can enhance credibility against inflation and compress long-term inflation premiums, thereby driving down mortgage rates, which aligns with the goals of the Trump administration. However, factors such as price moderation and internal reviews still pose short-term constraints.

Goldman Sachs warns that global markets face a triple negative feedback loop: soaring oil prices combined with rising interest rates suppress the market, and delayed policies exacerbate risks; Google raises its 2026 capital expenditure to over $200 billion, with free cash flow turning negative, triggering a narrative crisis for super-large cloud vendors; AI infrastructure bond prices have significantly declined, and capacity expansion may evolve into excess computing power. The three loops reinforce each other, with reflexive signals being "extremely negative."

Bank of America believes that the biggest highlight of the second quarter earnings report is that Google Cloud revenue increased by 82% year-on-year, far exceeding expectations, with cloud business backlog hitting a record high, and AI investments are accelerating revenue realization. Although the significant increase in capital expenditures has put pressure on the stock price, Bank of America maintains a "buy" rating, believing that the long-term logic remains unchanged.

The official CPI shows moderate inflation, but the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index has hit a nearly half-century low, raising concerns about the divergence between the two. Economist Edwards points out that the main issue lies in the CPI using a single "average basket" to obscure the real inflation differences among different income groups—low-income households have long endured higher inflation, which is smoothed out in the aggregate data.

Hong Kong stocks have rebounded significantly for two consecutive weeks. Although the proportion of unclosed short selling in Hong Kong stocks has slightly decreased to 2.43%, it remains at historically high levels. Short squeeze trading and pair trading are both present. CITIC Securities recommends focusing on innovative drugs, aviation, robotics, and metals with strong industrial properties in the short term. In the U.S. stock market, AI momentum trading has significantly returned, and it is expected that U.S. stocks will maintain a fluctuating upward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to software, military industry, energy infrastructure, and financial sectors.

The global financial market appears calm but is fraught with hidden currents: the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Waller, has reduced forward guidance, amplifying policy uncertainty, while the yen has fallen below the 162 mark, triggering another arbitrage liquidation crisis. UBS's vulnerability index has soared to a high of 0.9, with individual stock volatility exceeding three times that of the index. Amidst a lack of liquidity in the summer, if the 24% high growth expectation for U.S. stocks' second-quarter earnings fails to materialize, it could trigger a severe index-level pullback.

The "richest" new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, has officially taken office. His alternative proposal of "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts" aims not only to reshape the decision-making mechanism but also to profoundly disrupt the U.S. Treasury, the dollar, and the global core asset allocation landscape.