2026

According to The Block, after Senate Republicans released the "final" version of the Clarity Act reflecting the amendments requested by Democrats, the probability of the bill passing on Polymarket in 2026 rose to 30%.

JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December 2026, up from the previous forecast of a single rate hike in December.

The Bitget 2026 King Cup Global Invitation Tournament (KCGI) has been underway since September 9, with over 1,420 teams participating and a total of 50,902 participants. Users can sign up to participate at any time during the tournament, with the registration deadline set for September 22.This KCGI is centered around "UEX Panorama Competition," and for the first time, it integrates three major tracks: crypto contracts, TradFi contracts, and stock spot (rToken), achieving a unified competition arena, prize pool, and ranking, with a total prize pool of 3 million USDT.The UEX Arena offers a maximum reward of 2 million USDT, covering five major leaderboards including team earnings, trading volume across tracks, and individual earnings; the UEX Treasure Map provides a maximum chest reward of 600,000 USDT through a task key and track fragment synthesis mechanism; there is also a special incentive of 100,000 USDT for team captains participating in the competition.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that this cycle may be the one with the most activity from long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin. He observed related changes through the CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) heatmap, which tracks the number of days BTC is held before being spent or transferred; the transfer of BTC by long-term holders is usually associated with selling intentions.The increase in LTH activity during this cycle may benefit from the market liquidity brought by spot ETFs and companies establishing Bitcoin treasury reserves. However, the rise in CDD is not only seen at market tops; it may also reflect the capitulation behavior of some holders.He added that Coinbase previously transferred 800,000 BTC, a large portion of which had been held for over 6 months. Such asset migrations can also cause a temporary rise in CDD, but they are considered incidental events. Currently, with Bitcoin's recent rise, LTH activity has slightly increased, possibly because some holders wish to realize quick profits; however, overall, related activities are still relatively calm for 2026, and long-term holders are still waiting.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "2026 US Open Men's Singles Champion" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option probability for the sub-market "Ben Shelton" has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 22.25% an hour ago to the current 37.75% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Goldman Sachs continues to predict that gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, and believes there are net upside risks. Goldman Sachs pointed out that if demand from central banks remains strong and ETF investor inflows recover, gold prices could far exceed the forecast. Additionally, if expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes increase, it could lead to a sharp correction in gold prices.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket for the event "Elon Musk Tweet from September 4 to September 11, 2026," the "Yes" option in the sub-market "160-179" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 54% an hour ago to the current 69.5% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "WTI Crude Oil September 2026 Price Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "↑ $105" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 81.5% an hour ago to the current 64.6% (a fluctuation of 16.9%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Micron Technology announced on Friday that its direct labor employees in Taiwan will receive a total bonus for the fiscal year 2026 equivalent to 35 to 68 months of salary, with a minimum cash compensation of 1.7 million New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 53,809.39 USD).Employees in Taiwan who joined before August 29, 2025, will receive a cash bonus of 1 million New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 31,652.58 USD) for the fiscal year 2026. This announcement comes after union members representing about two-thirds of Micron's employees in Taiwan generally supported a strike.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event predicting the number of tweets by Elon Musk from September 4 to September 11, 2026, on the market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "180-199" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 14.5% an hour ago to the current 34.5% (a fluctuation of 20%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event "WTI Crude Oil September 2026 Price Prediction" on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Breakthrough $100" has experienced a sharp fluctuation, soaring from 67% an hour ago to the current 86% (a fluctuation of 19%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Flop Labs CEO Arthur Hayes announced that the FLOP Network v0.5.0 yellow paper draft has been released, proposing an AI inference measurement and settlement network based on Substrate/FRAME, utilizing the BABE block production and AlephBFT finality mechanism.The project's official roadmap indicates that the FLOP testnet is planned to launch in Q4 2026, with token airdrops through participation in testing, and the mainnet target is set for Q1 2027; currently, the yellow paper remains a draft, and several parameters and mechanisms have yet to be finalized.

According to Akchabar, the Minister of Internal Affairs of Kyrgyzstan, Ulan Niyazbekov, stated that since 2026, the country's internal affairs agency has initiated 90 criminal investigations related to cryptocurrency, involving cases of online fraud, theft of funds, money laundering, and the transfer of criminal proceeds.Niyazbekov revealed that during a 2025 investigation into a transnational online fraud gang, police discovered a TRON wallet holding over 3 million dollars in digital assets on a suspect's device and used blockchain analysis tools to trace the related funds.

The Bitcoin On-Chain Spending Profit Ratio (SOPR) has remained above the breakeven point of 1 for three consecutive weeks, marking the longest bullish cycle since 2026. Data from CryptoQuant shows that this metric has consistently been above 1 since August 19, currently reported at 1.002, indicating that most Bitcoin transferred on-chain is in profit. On-chain analysis tool Checkonchain points out that the structure of the short-term holder SOPR is beginning to resemble the early stages of a bull market recovery, rather than the rebound-and-sell pattern seen in a bear market.However, David Puell, portfolio manager at ARK Invest and founder of the Puell Multiple metric, warns that there is still downside risk for Bitcoin prices. In an interview with CryptoQuant, he stated that more evidence is needed to confirm that the bottom of this bear market has been reached. The SOPR needs to stay above 1 for a longer period, and investors must continue to realize profits without prices making new lows. Additionally, Bitcoin needs to form a series of higher highs and higher lows on a weekly basis, a pattern that has not yet emerged.Previously, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju had suggested that the bear market was over based on his proprietary bull-bear market cycle indicator. Currently, Bitcoin prices are fluctuating around $80,000.

Barclays raised its S&P 500 index target for the end of 2026 to 7,950 points, up from 7,800 points.

TrendForce's latest research on the wafer foundry industry shows that in the second quarter of 2026, the total revenue of the world's top ten wafer foundries increased by 11.5% quarter-on-quarter, approaching $53.49 billion, setting a new record. The growth mainly comes from the continued demand exceeding supply for advanced processes in AI and HPC processors, as well as the rising demand for peripheral AI chips such as PMICs and power discrete devices; the early stocking of consumer supply chains for TVs, PCs, and laptops has also tightened the capacity of some mature processes.TSMC continues to lead, with revenue nearing $40.2 billion in the second quarter, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.1%, and a market share of 72.5%. The demand for AI server GPUs and XPUs has kept its 5/4 nm and 3 nm capacities fully loaded, and the initial stocking of the new iPhone has also contributed, with 2 nm making its first revenue contribution. Samsung Foundry ranks second, with revenue of $3.26 billion, a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.8%, and a market share dropping to 5.9%. SMIC ranks third, with revenue exceeding $3 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20%, and a market share rising to 5.4%, narrowing the gap with Samsung.UMC maintains fourth place, with revenue of nearly $2.18 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.7%, and a market share of 3.9%. GlobalFoundries is fifth, with revenue of approximately $1.79 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.3%, and a market share of 3.2%. Hua Hong Group ranks sixth, with revenue exceeding $1.27 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.5%. Tower, World Advanced, Jinghe Integrated, and Powerchip rank seventh to tenth, with revenues of $460 million, $451 million, $447 million, and $432 million, respectively.

User chris__lu posted that they compiled all 236 companies and 470 founders from the YC Summer 2026 batch, categorizing each company into an AI technology stack layer and comparing it to the Spring batch using the same criteria. This batch still has 91% related to AI. The model companies increased from 8% to 20%, the application layer decreased from 55% to 39%, horizontal applications dropped from 58 to 32, and vertical applications remained at 25%.In the Spring, 45% of companies delivered autonomous agents, while in the Summer, it was 33%, with "agent" in a one-sentence introduction dropping from 27% to 19%. 21 companies are engaged in computational infrastructure, 11 focus on inference costs, and there are also companies for training data and reinforcement learning environments. Scale AI is listed as an alternative target by 8 companies. The industrial category increased from 12% to 24%, with 45 companies delivering physical products, 24 being robots or physical AI, and 21 companies operating their own businesses rather than selling software.This batch is the youngest, with 37% of founders being students or graduates in the last two years, 59 teams are entirely student teams, the dropout rate increased from 3% to 9%, and repeat founders decreased from 32% to 23%, with 84% having a technical background. 39 from Berkeley, 32 from MIT, and 25 from Stanford. Amazon is the largest source of talent. Sales and marketing AI decreased from 18 to 6. Only 19 founders come from AI labs, accounting for 4%. 8 founding teams come from the same previous employer.