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first_img Anthropic's prospectus names TSMC, warning that advanced chip production capacity is concentrated in Taiwan

The AI laboratory Anthropic, which developed Claude, named TSMC in its IPO prospectus, warning that the world's most advanced chip manufacturing capacity is highly concentrated in Taiwan. The prospectus states that if TSMC's operations are disrupted, it could severely impact the supply of AI chips and affect Anthropic's business, financial condition, and operational results.According to MoneyDJ citing the prospectus, the global AI industry heavily relies on TSMC's advanced processes. Suppliers such as NVIDIA and AMD, as well as companies that design their own chips like Amazon and Google, all need TSMC to turn their designs into physical chips. The listed risks include earthquakes, typhoons, interruptions in power and water supply, as well as cross-strait geopolitical tensions, military conflicts, blockades, tariffs, and trade restrictions.The prospectus also states that if a significant event occurs in Taiwan, the supply of advanced chips could be severely hindered; due to the time-consuming nature of building and certifying alternative foundries, the impact could last for several years. The expansion of advanced processes outside Taiwan is still in its early stages, making it difficult to effectively reduce concentration risks in the short term. TSMC has been unable to fully meet market demand due to strong demand, resulting in Anthropic not being able to obtain a sufficient supply of chips in a timely manner.

first_img Morgan Stanley: The adjustment of chip stocks has entered its final stage, with a year-end target of 8000 points for the S&P 500

Morgan Stanley's Chief Equity Strategist Mike Wilson stated that despite the cooling enthusiasm for artificial intelligence trading and recent pressure on U.S. stocks, he maintains his forecast for the S&P 500 index to close at 8000 points by the end of the year. Morgan Stanley has set a tactical downside target for the S&P 500 at 7100 to 7200 points, slightly below the 200-day moving average, while the basic year-end target remains at 8000 points. Wilson noted that several upcoming clearing events, including the midterm elections, should mark the end of the current stock market adjustment.Wilson is relatively cautious about the semiconductor sector, believing that support levels may be significantly lower than current levels, but selling pressure may ease next month. The strategy team stated that as the market questions the timing and scale of revenue realization related to artificial intelligence, the semiconductor and other capital expenditure beneficiary sectors have become the epicenter of financing concerns; there are new doubts about the cost of capital for some participants and whether the credit market can provide sufficient funds to support related expenditures, as governments and non-AI-related capital expenditures are also competing for funds. The team indicated that given the possibility of more financing plans in the future, it is normal for the market to focus on the supply side, but this concern will persist until financing is completed.The five-year credit default swaps of the highly leveraged new cloud service provider CoreWeave closed above 1100 basis points last week, implying a default probability of about 50% on its debt within five years. Wilson's team believes that the adjustment in the semiconductor sector has entered its final stage, expecting this round of adjustment to end by mid-November; however, based on technical analysis and comparisons with the once-hot silver market, the sector may decline another 10% to 15% from current levels, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index potentially dipping to around 9500 points. Last week, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell a cumulative 0.7%, with a total decline of over 5% in the past two weeks; on Monday, Anthropic's public IPO prospectus boosted the AI sector, leading chip stocks to rise, and the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 0.82%, closing at 26169.38 points.

first_img South Korean retail investors have resumed buying leveraged single stocks in chips, with a net purchase of approximately 4.7 trillion won in SOXL

According to North Korean Commerce reported on October 25, after a sharp decline in the South Korean stock market, individual investors have re-entered to buy leveraged products betting on the rebound of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Data from the Korea Exchange and Koscom ETF Check shows that from October 1 to 23, individual net purchases of 14 related products amounted to 315.4 billion Korean won, of which 7 related to SK Hynix accounted for 226.3 billion won, and 7 related to Samsung Electronics accounted for 89.1 billion won.The aforementioned 14 products had a net purchase of 27.728 trillion won in July, but turned to net selling after regulatory tightening such as the increase in depositary receipts on July 31. In August and September, there were net sales of 648.4 billion won and 497.9 billion won, respectively, and this month individuals have first turned back to net buying. During the same period, KODEX SK Hynix leveraged product saw a net purchase of 15.294 billion won, ranking 11th among ETFs listed in South Korea; individuals also net bought KODEX Leverage 10.448 trillion won and KODEX Semiconductor Leverage 256.4 billion won. The South Korean Composite Index fell by 18.83% in October.Data from the Korea Securities Depository shows that from October 1 to 22, South Korean investors net bought U.S. stocks worth 4.8009 billion dollars, approximately 63.621 trillion won. Among them, the net purchase of SOXL, which tracks the daily returns of the U.S. semiconductor index at 3 times, was 3.54764 billion dollars, about 47.041 trillion won, accounting for 73.9% of the net purchases of U.S. stocks during the same period. The article also noted that leveraged products track daily returns by multiples, and when the market reverses, losses can also be magnified by 2 or 3 times, and during repeated sharp rises and falls, negative compounding effects may also occur.

Bitwise: Bitcoin's implied volatility has dropped to a three-year low, and long-term holders continue to distribute chips

Bitwise released a report indicating that Bitcoin is currently holding resiliently around $82,000, a price level close to the spot ETF holding cost. Key support levels below include the short-term holder cost price of approximately $74,800 and the real market average of about $77,600. The former can serve as a reference for judging the short-term market direction, while the latter corresponds to the price level at which half of the invested capital in the market is in profit or loss. The price range formed by these two points may become the dividing line between bulls and bears.The trading range for Bitcoin over the past 30 days and 60 days has narrowed to 1.8% and 3.0%, respectively, with the implied volatility at-the-money for each term also approaching the lower end of the distribution range over the past three years. Among them, the 3-month and 6-month implied volatility are at the 0.8 and 0.2 percentiles of historical distribution, indicating that the market's pricing for future volatility has dropped to extremely low levels.So far this week, net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have reached $1.074 billion, rising in sync with the cumulative trading volume of the spot market, providing support for Bitcoin prices and offsetting some macro pressures. However, realized profits in the market have also increased, particularly among long-term holders. Meanwhile, the net position change indicator for long-term holders is negative, suggesting they may be in a distribution phase, which could be one reason for the ongoing consolidation of Bitcoin prices.
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