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Investment Bank Jefferies: The CLARITY Act faces a critical test in the Senate, which may exacerbate volatility in the cryptocurrency market

According to CoinDesk, investment bank Jefferies stated in its latest report that the U.S. CLARITY Act still faces significant legislative hurdles in the Senate, and related legislative progress in the coming weeks may exacerbate volatility in the cryptocurrency market.Jefferies pointed out that although the bill previously passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, there are only about 20 legislative days left before the August congressional recess. The Senate still needs to complete the bill's consolidation, procedural voting, coordination with the House version, and submission for presidential signature, making the timeline very tight.Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has dropped from 70% in mid-May to 48%. Jefferies believes that if the bill passes smoothly, it will establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset management institutions, and exchanges to accelerate their layout in tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and other businesses, as well as facilitate more cryptocurrency ETFs and IPOs of cryptocurrency infrastructure companies. If the legislation is delayed, it may prolong regulatory uncertainty, causing traditional financial institutions to slow down their blockchain business advancement.The report predicts that the progress of the bill will continue to affect the market performance of cryptocurrency concept stocks such as Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), Bullish (BLSH), and some cryptocurrency assets.Jefferies also noted that in the long term, compared to regulatory changes, the greater challenge faced by stablecoin issuer Circle still comes from competition with banks, fintech, and payment companies.

The U.S. CLARITY Act is entering a critical two weeks, with multiple parties intensifying discussions during the Senate recess

According to Crypto in America, the U.S. Senate will recess until July 13, and the advancement of the CLARITY Act depends on the progress of behind-the-scenes coordination over the next two weeks. Staff from both parties, government officials, and industry stakeholders are working to resolve remaining differences, including reconciling text discrepancies between the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee, as well as reaching consensus on ethical standards and provisions to combat illegal financial activities.The bill requires the support of at least 60 senators to pass. Even if all 53 Republican votes are in favor, at least 7 Democratic senators will need to join; the support of the majority of Democrats may depend on whether the White House can agree to establish a strong ethical framework regarding issues related to Trump's cryptocurrency business. According to Reuters, since Trump's return to the White House, his cryptocurrency business has generated over $2 billion in new wealth for him.Additionally, major law enforcement groups still oppose the inclusion of provisions from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act in the bill, arguing that it would increase the difficulty of investigating and prosecuting on-chain crimes. Remaining discrepancies in the Agriculture Committee's text include issues such as the prioritization of federal law over state law, management of conflicts of interest in exchanges, and restrictions on related-party transactions. Sources indicate that the parties have not yet reached a final agreement, and there remains uncertainty about whether the Senate vote can be completed before the August recess.

Benchmark: The SEC's market structure reform may become the most critical variable for cryptocurrency regulation this year, benefiting tokenized stocks and AMM trading

According to The Block, investment bank Benchmark pointed out in its latest research report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed to repeal Rule 611 and Rule 610(e) of Regulation NMS, which could become the "most decisive regulatory change" affecting the market structure of cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets in 2026.The proposal was announced on June 11 and aims to eliminate trading protection and quote constraint rules that have been in place for nearly 20 years in the U.S. stock market. The SEC stated that this move is intended to reduce trading costs and provide greater space for market competition and technological innovation.Benchmark's analysis believes that the current Rule 611 (order protection rule) requires trades to adhere to the National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO), while Rule 610(e) restricts "locked/crossed quotes." These mechanisms are effective in traditional matching systems but create structural constraints for automated market maker (AMM) models in decentralized finance (DeFi).The report pointed out that if the relevant rules are repealed, it will significantly lower the compliance barriers for tokenized stocks and on-chain trading systems, making AMM-based trading models easier to access the U.S. capital market system.In terms of potential beneficiaries, Benchmark specifically mentioned Securitize, believing that it will benefit most directly as a provider of tokenized securities infrastructure, while Coinbase and Galaxy Digital will also benefit from the expansion of trading, market-making, and custody infrastructure. However, the report also emphasized that the rule adjustments do not address all core issues, such as the exchange registration system, custody and clearing framework, and the legal positioning of DeFi-native trading still needs further clarification.The industry generally expects that the subsequent "innovation exemption mechanism" will become a key supporting policy. The SEC has currently opened a 60-day public comment period on the proposal, and the market anticipates that the final vote may take place in early 2027.

The UK House of Lords released a 71-page report on stablecoin regulation, criticizing the current regulatory proposals for lacking competitiveness

According to a report titled "Stablecoins: Waiting for Regulation" released by the UK House of Lords Financial Services Regulatory Committee, the global market capitalization of stablecoins has exceeded $310 billion, but the UK pound stablecoin market is still in its infancy, and the construction of the regulatory framework is clearly lagging behind the United States (GENIUS Act) and the European Union (MiCAR).The report criticizes several aspects of the current regulatory proposals from the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Bank of England, focusing on:• The Bank of England's requirement for systemic stablecoin issuers to deposit at least 40% of reserve assets in non-interest-bearing central bank deposits, which the industry believes will severely harm issuers' profitability and the international competitiveness of the UK market;• The proposed holding limits (individual £20,000, corporate £10 million) are considered extremely difficult to implement and may stifle the development of the pound stablecoin market;• The T+1 redemption requirement will impose a significant operational burden on issuers;• The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) restrictions on deposit-taking institutions issuing stablecoins under independent brands are deemed overly stringent.The report also acknowledges the liquidity support loan mechanism proposed by the Bank of England, considering it an innovative regulatory measure that surpasses other major jurisdictions. The committee calls on regulatory agencies to strictly adhere to the established timeline, ensuring that the complete regulatory framework comes into effect as scheduled on October 25, 2027, and recommends adopting a principle-based, technology-neutral regulatory approach to achieve a reasonable balance between financial stability and market innovation.

Coinbase receives CFTC exemption to access global derivatives, JPMorgan CEO criticizes compliance legislation

According to BBX data, the global competition between crypto compliance infrastructure and traditional financial capital entered a heated stage yesterday, with brokerage giants and old money on Wall Street clashing over the advancement of legislation. The core dynamics are as follows:Coinbase receives CFTC 16-page no-action letter authorization: Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: $COIN) officially announced that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a 16-page "no-action letter" to its subsidiary CFM. This authorizes CFM to officially offer perpetual contracts and options for "digital commodities" such as BTC, ETH, SOL, and DOGE to U.S. institutional clients through the foreign exchange Deribit FZE, which it previously acquired for $2.9 billion. The letter also allows clients to directly transfer digital assets and stablecoins to Deribit FZE as collateral.Dimon publicly declares war on the CLARITY Act: Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: $JPM), publicly expressed strong opposition to the CLARITY Act currently advancing in the Senate during a Fox Business program. Dimon warned that the act allows crypto companies to pay users "yield rewards" in stablecoins, effectively bypassing the capital and compliance standards of traditional banking. He formed a coalition with the American Bankers Association, publicly committing to "fight to the end" against this legislation.
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