employment

Anthropic's economic team builds models to analyze the impact of AI on employment, growth, and unemployment in the United States. The model views the economy as a combination of tasks based on the U.S. Department of Labor's O*NET classification, where AI can keep tasks unchanged, enhance, automate, or create new tasks. The U.S. economy is described as having a task instance value of over $30 trillion.Three scenarios depend on AI capabilities and adoption speed: the moderate scenario is similar to the internet, with U.S. GDP increasing by 1.6% by 2030 ($34.1 trillion in 2025 prices), labor share at 59.4%, and capital share at 40.6%; in the substantial scenario, AI can perform half of knowledge work, GDP increases by 8.3% ($36.3 trillion), and wages for knowledge workers remain roughly stable, with a labor share of 56.1%; in the extreme scenario, AI is much more efficient in the vast majority of knowledge work and completes it almost entirely autonomously, with GDP increasing by 32.4% ($44.4 trillion), wages for knowledge workers dropping by over 10%, a labor share of 45.2%, and an unemployment rate exceeding typical recession levels.A survey conducted in August with over 10,000 Americans showed that typical responses were close to the substantial scenario (2030 GDP about 10% higher, unemployment rate about 5%), with about 10% of respondents nearing the extreme scenario. GDP increases in all scenarios, and transformative scenarios require more job transitions. The page provides a technical report and an interactive explorer.

The weekly change in ADP employment in the United States for the week ending August 22 was an increase of 12,000 people, compared to the previous value of 11,750 people.

The Economist estimates that AI has created about 1 million new jobs in the United States so far, far exceeding the approximately 200,000 jobs cut due to AI since mid-2023. This conclusion is based on the employment data for August released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on September 4: the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The unemployment rate for young people aged 20-24 is now close to its lowest level in decades compared to the overall unemployment rate.Job growth mainly comes from high-skilled positions directly serving AI and blue-collar jobs driven by data center construction. Since 2022, about 730,000 jobs exceeding the trend line have been added for engineers, software developers, mathematicians, and data scientists. The chief economist at Burning Glass Institute estimates that currently about 1% of professional jobs in the U.S. can be classified as AI jobs, with that proportion reaching 4% to 5% in the fields of computer and life sciences. Spending on data center construction has increased by 60% within a year, leading to a rise in demand for electricians, HVAC technicians, and others. Data from Indeed shows that salaries for data center installation and maintenance jobs are about 40% higher than similar positions.Customer service positions have shrunk by about 10% since January 2023, and administrative assistants have decreased by about 15%. Microsoft and Meta have reduced staff while restructuring their businesses around AI, and companies like Block and Intuit have replaced some manual labor with automation tools. On average, U.S. companies announce about 16,000 layoffs related to AI each month. Economist Noah Smith points out that it is currently difficult to find occupations eliminated by AI in labor data.

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated that the employment report on Friday was strong, with non-farm employment increasing by 162,000, household survey employment growth exceeding 500,000, and the average workweek increasing, indicating that the economy was performing well in August.Wood noted that many will see more inflation and Federal Reserve tightening, but she sees greater changes. Overall inflation is at 3.7%, with other measures closer to 2%. Oil prices could drop to $30, stocks are reaching all-time highs as interest rates rise, capital expenditures have broken through a ceiling not seen in over 20 years, and companies embracing artificial intelligence are creating jobs faster.She stated that these are not isolated signals and may mark the beginning of stronger real growth and robust technology-driven deflation. The consensus is pricing for the old economy, and she believes a new economy is forming.

a16z Charts compiled recent data indicating that since January 2025, tech recruitment has shown a clear preference for years of experience, while the requirements for the number of skills have decreased, with a change of about 5% to 10%.The charts show that companies are lowering the weight of skill lists when screening positions, and are instead placing more emphasis on candidates' accumulated experience. This change is related to the skill gaps brought about by AI, which is rewriting the safety and employment landscape.

Former President Trump stated: The recently released employment data is fantastic, breaking all expectations (except mine!), with an increase reaching two to three times the forecast, and you haven't seen the full picture yet!American employers added 162,000 jobs in August. Lower the interest rates, because the credit situation in the U.S. is much stronger than it was not long ago! A strong country means lower interest rates because its credit situation is better... it's that simple!We should have the lowest interest rates in the world, just like in the "good old days." If the U.S. does not agree to allow these countries to enjoy huge trade surpluses, and we can stop that immediately, then they should no longer be considered financial "elite" countries! Lower the interest rates, or I will stop trading with those countries that have a trade surplus with the U.S. The U.S. Supreme Court has already clearly recognized in that ridiculous and costly tariff ruling that the "President" has the absolute right to do so. This is better than tariffs!The Federal Reserve Board, under the leadership of this outstanding new leader, must become wise, think from a different perspective, and act like patriots. High interest rates put the U.S. at an extremely unfair disadvantage, and I will never allow this to happen!

In August, the ADP employment number in the United States was 38,000, the smallest increase since January, lower than the market expectation of 48,000, and the previous value was 44,000.

According to Bitcoin.com News, the National Cryptocurrency Association of the United States has launched an interactive map estimating the distribution of 67 million cryptocurrency holders across states and congressional districts. The data shows that California has about 9.5 million holders, ranking first in the nation, followed by Texas, Florida, New York, and Illinois. The related data is a model estimate and not verified actual numbers.Additionally, according to research commissioned by the association, the cryptocurrency industry supports approximately 231,800 jobs in the United States, generating $55.4 billion in economic activity and $30.8 billion in labor income.

Economists expect that the monthly employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday will show an increase of 55,000 non-farm jobs in August, following an unexpected decline in July's employment numbers. If so, this result will roughly align with the average monthly increase so far this year. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Analyst Anna Wong stated that Waller's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole has increased the likelihood of a rate hike in September and changed market expectations on how to interpret next week's data. The August non-farm employment report remains a headline figure, but the anticipated weak performance may not have as decisive an impact as usual. Waller described the labor market as being in good health and noted that a slowdown in job growth is often a demographic issue rather than an economic recession.

U.S. non-farm payroll benchmark change preliminary value for 2026 (not seasonally adjusted) -79,000, expected 183,000, previous value -862,000.

For the week ending August 15, the number of continuing unemployment claims in the United States was 1.778 million, lower than the expected 1.79 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.799 million to 1.796 million.

The weekly change in ADP employment in the United States for the week ending August 8 was an increase of 11,750 people, compared to the previous value of 9,500 people.

Recently, Peter McCrory, the head of economics at Anthropic, explained the AI unemployment paradox. He pointed out that AI capabilities have significantly improved, raising reasonable questions about why there has not yet been a noticeable impact on unemployment rates. The U.S. Business Trends and Outlook Survey shows that about one-fifth of U.S. businesses use AI to some extent, and productivity growth in the U.S. has strengthened in recent years, some of which may be related to AI.McCrory stated that the unemployment rate in the labor market is still close to the full employment level identified by the Federal Reserve, and even deep data analysis makes it difficult to draw clear conclusions about the impact of AI. The basic judgment is that so far, AI has shown characteristics of skill-biased technology, automating certain work processes while complementing and amplifying the professional skills that rely on human participation, thereby creating maximum value in human-machine collaboration.

For the week ending August 15, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States was 206,000, lower than the expected 210,000, and the previous value was revised from 209,000 to 212,000.

For the week ending August 8, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the United States was 1.799 million, higher than the expected 1.79 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.777 million to 1.781 million.

According to ChainCatcher news, analysis from 10x Research suggests that Bitcoin may be decoupling from its correlation with the S&P 500. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in September due to weak summer employment, Bitcoin is expected to become a major beneficiary alongside gold. The analysis states that after the FOMC meeting at the end of July 2026, bond traders were once convinced that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in September, with the market pricing in two rate hikes before the end of the year. However, the institution believes that four voters who leaned towards maintaining interest rates in July suddenly shifted to a higher threshold for rate hikes within six weeks.More importantly, seasonal factors play a role; historically, the labor market has performed poorly in the summer, which has previously driven rate cuts in September 2024 and September 2025. With the World Cup ending, similar employment weakness may force bond market traders to reassess their rate hike expectations, at which point gold and Bitcoin are expected to benefit.

The weekly change in ADP employment in the United States for the week ending July 25 was an increase of 8,250 people, compared to a previous value of 15,000 people.In the four weeks ending July 25, 2026, private sector employers added an average of 8,250 jobs per week.

Lianxin Bank stated that the CPI report for July released on Wednesday and the PPI report on Thursday may have a greater impact on the Federal Reserve's decision than employment data. Economists expect the year-on-year increase in CPI to drop from 3.5% in June to 3.4%. Bill Adams, the chief economist at Lianxin Bank, pointed out that if the data develops as expected, it will support the Federal Reserve's decision on September 16, and the inflation data for July will have a greater impact on the decision than this month's employment report.

In July, the United States unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs, far below the expected increase of 80,000. The increase in June was also revised down to only 20,000. Despite the weak job market, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos commented that in July, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 4.09% because both the number of job seekers and the number counted as unemployed decreased; this data brought the unemployment rate to its lowest level in two years.Analysts pointed out that this disappointing report has reignited concerns about the labor market and may complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as policymakers need to seek a balance between weak employment and persistent inflation. As a result, market expectations for interest rate hikes quickly receded.Affected by this, U.S. stock index futures surged rapidly, with Nasdaq futures up 0.79% for the day, S&P 500 futures up 0.39%, and Dow futures up 0.27%. U.S. Treasury prices soared, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury currently down 4.29 basis points, reported at 4.627%; non-U.S. currencies generally rose, with the dollar against the yen briefly falling 80 points, reported at 157.72.At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index DXY briefly fell nearly 30 points, reported at 99.67. Spot gold briefly rose about $40, reported at $4,351.43 per ounce.

The unemployment rate in the United States for July is 4.1%, expected to be 4.2%, previous value 4.20%.