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first_img Anthropic released an AI economic scenario, predicting a 32.4% increase in the U.S. GDP by 2030 under extreme conditions

Anthropic's economic team builds models to analyze the impact of AI on employment, growth, and unemployment in the United States. The model views the economy as a combination of tasks based on the U.S. Department of Labor's O*NET classification, where AI can keep tasks unchanged, enhance, automate, or create new tasks. The U.S. economy is described as having a task instance value of over $30 trillion.Three scenarios depend on AI capabilities and adoption speed: the moderate scenario is similar to the internet, with U.S. GDP increasing by 1.6% by 2030 ($34.1 trillion in 2025 prices), labor share at 59.4%, and capital share at 40.6%; in the substantial scenario, AI can perform half of knowledge work, GDP increases by 8.3% ($36.3 trillion), and wages for knowledge workers remain roughly stable, with a labor share of 56.1%; in the extreme scenario, AI is much more efficient in the vast majority of knowledge work and completes it almost entirely autonomously, with GDP increasing by 32.4% ($44.4 trillion), wages for knowledge workers dropping by over 10%, a labor share of 45.2%, and an unemployment rate exceeding typical recession levels.A survey conducted in August with over 10,000 Americans showed that typical responses were close to the substantial scenario (2030 GDP about 10% higher, unemployment rate about 5%), with about 10% of respondents nearing the extreme scenario. GDP increases in all scenarios, and transformative scenarios require more job transitions. The page provides a technical report and an interactive explorer.

first_img The UK's National Economic Crime Centre warns that criminals are innovatively using cryptocurrency assets for money laundering

According to Decrypt, the UK's National Economic Crime Centre (NECC) warned in its annual report released this week that criminals are "innovatively using cryptocurrency products to evade detection and transfer illegal value on a large scale."The agency is part of the UK's National Crime Agency (NCA) and is responsible for coordinating the UK's response to economic crime. The threat assessment in the report indicates that cross-border money laundering networks are spreading, combining new and traditional methods while transferring funds through both legitimate and illegitimate channels; many organized crime groups no longer launder money themselves but outsource it to specialized networks for a fee. The report also mentions artificial intelligence alongside cryptocurrency, noting that criminals are using synthetic identities and process automation to attack banks.The report shows that cryptocurrency ranks third among the nine economic crime priorities identified by the UK's National Economic Crime Centre, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the Home Office, and the Treasury in July 2025, above cash crime and money mules. The agency states that it is developing "more proactive, intelligence-led cryptocurrency capabilities." Additionally, its joint operation "Atlantic Action" with the U.S. Secret Service, Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, and Tether has identified 20,000 approved phishing victims and frozen $12 million in funds; the "Stable Action" targeting Russian networks converting street cash into cryptocurrency has arrested 129 individuals and seized over £25 million in the UK.The report also mentions a report on privacy-enhancing technologies in the cryptocurrency industry released by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

first_img The Ministry of Economic Affairs of Taiwan confirmed that Taiwanese companies will increase their investment in the United States by 20 billion USD

The Ministry of Economic Affairs of Taiwan has confirmed that Taiwanese companies will invest an additional 20 billion USD in the United States. Minister of Economic Affairs Wang Mei-hua stated that in response to order demands, in addition to the main production bases in Taiwan, capacity will also be increased in the United States, primarily focusing on semiconductor manufacturers, supply chains, and AI server manufacturers.U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo previously stated that Taiwan would announce investments of 20 to 30 billion USD in the U.S. next week. The Ministry of Economic Affairs responded that this investment is the 20 billion USD announced by Wang Mei-hua during the opening of the SEMICON TAIWAN 2026 U.S. Pavilion on the 2nd. Wang Mei-hua pointed out that global orders for AI and semiconductors are booming, and the global president of SEMI has raised the forecast for global semiconductor revenue in 2030 from 1 trillion USD to 2 trillion USD.The Ministry of Economic Affairs' review shows that as of May this year, 20 semiconductor and AI server-related companies have announced investments of 35 billion USD in the United States, with an additional 20 billion USD added in the following months. Future cooperation will also extend to industries such as biotechnology and natural gas.

first_img Delphi Digital: China's AI Laboratory is Transforming Intelligent Economics

Research institution Delphi Digital stated that hardware limitations are driving Chinese laboratories to shift towards cheaper models and more efficient technology stacks. Export control restrictions limit their access to advanced chips, while domestic accelerators can handle inference, but cutting-edge training remains difficult to achieve. Chinese laboratories are innovating in system efficiency, model architecture, training data, and reinforcement learning. DeepSeek has found a way to avoid GPU idle data movement, and ByteDance and Moonshot are set to release similar versions within months.In terms of architecture, training is shifting to cheaper digital formats that are compatible with domestic chips. Sparse architectures reduce the runtime per token, and the attention mechanism has been redesigned three times to control the memory costs of long context. In terms of data, denser prediction targets and better optimizers enhance the learning signal per token. In reinforcement learning, DeepSeek's GRPO has become the default recipe, with ByteDance, Alibaba, and MiniMax each launching successor plans within a year. Chinese models are now among the lowest-cost cutting-edge adjacent systems.On OpenRouter, the proportion of token consumption by Chinese developed models is expected to rise from less than 1.2% at the end of 2024 to the majority by 2026. The Chinese AI market is experiencing a price war from 2024 to early 2026, with several laboratories implying revenue multiples of about 47-117 times, while Anthropic and OpenAI are around 15-21 times. Huawei's Ascend chips are currently available for inference, and DeepSeek reportedly attempted to train R2 on Ascend but returned to NVIDIA after encountering technical issues. Domestic accelerator supply remains below estimated demand.

first_img Musk predicts that AI could drive global economic growth by 20% to 30%

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, stated via video link at the G20 summit held in Asheville, North Carolina, on Tuesday that the productivity improvements brought by AI are already evident, and robotics technology will further push productivity to new heights. He predicts that AI could increase the global economy's scale by 20% to 30%, adding approximately $20 trillion to $30 trillion to annual economic output.Musk forecasts that the number of humanoid robots worldwide will reach 1 billion within the next decade, with these robots producing at least five times more than humans. The widespread application of humanoid robots could expand the global economy's scale by more than tenfold. He also predicts that by the end of next year, AI will be able to handle almost all digital tasks that do not involve changing the real physical world, with AI software reaching Stockfish levels, making it impossible for humans to compete in software development. He expects that within 12 to 18 months, AI will excel in all forms of engineering and digital work.As Musk made these remarks, SpaceX is ramping up its investment in AI. SpaceX's AI business generated $2.6 billion in revenue in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 247%. The company invested $15.8 billion in AI infrastructure in the second quarter, primarily for the expansion of the Colossus II data center, accounting for about 86% of total capital expenditures. Recently, SpaceX acquired the AI programming platform Cursor for $60 billion and released its latest AI model, Grok 4.6.
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