upside

CoinShares released a report indicating that Bitcoin has shown relative strength this week against the backdrop of renewed volatility in the risk asset market, primarily due to a rebound in spot buying, improved stock market sentiment, and some short covering. Overall, the market is gradually reducing its enthusiasm for the AI narrative and is instead focusing more on whether corporate earnings can meet expectations.The poor performance of some U.S. corporate earnings reports has triggered significant stock price fluctuations, which have also affected Bitcoin to some extent, but it still demonstrates strong resilience overall. Meanwhile, macroeconomic signals in the U.S. remain mixed, with the housing market continuing to weaken. In terms of interest rates, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the meeting on October 28. The market's expectations for another rate hike in December remain high, with the related probability close to 83%.The weakness in the housing market provides some room for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, but last week's higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicate that inflation remains a key factor limiting a shift in policy. If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises rates next week, it could trigger more pronounced financial market volatility due to exceeding market expectations; in contrast, maintaining interest rates and continuing to release hawkish signals would be easier for the market to digest. Overall, the current market remains in a state of intertwining bullish and bearish factors. Improved spot demand, Bitcoin's enhanced ability to withstand stock market volatility, and the cooling housing market all provide some support for the market; however, inflationary pressures have not yet dissipated, limiting the Federal Reserve's room to ease policy. The subsequent trend of Bitcoin is expected to remain highly influenced by interest rate expectations and the overall liquidity environment, with the importance of single industry or market catalysts being relatively limited.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Logan stated that the downside risks to employment have diminished, while inflation risks are mainly focused on the upside.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that staff forecasts for economic activity are slightly stronger than the predictions made at the March meeting, expecting that the real GDP growth rate will be slightly above the potential growth rate in the coming years. The unemployment rate is expected to be close to long-term levels in the next two years, slightly below this level around 2028. Staff inflation forecasts for this year are higher than those made at the March meeting, mainly due to the latest data and higher energy prices. Inflation is expected to approach 2% by the end of next year. Overall, the risks to the inflation forecast are tilted to the upside, and staff believe that the possibility of inflation being more persistent than expected is worth noting.

Bernstein reiterated its "Outperform" rating on Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) and maintained a target price of $67, implying about a 72% upside from the current stock price of $38.97. Figure's Q1 2026 performance was strong: loan issuance reached $2.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 113%; adjusted revenue was $167 million, a year-on-year increase of 92%, exceeding market expectations by 6%; adjusted EBITDA was $82.7 million, with a profit margin of about 50%, slightly above market expectations. However, the GAAP diluted EPS was $0.18, about 9% below expectations, primarily impacted by $26 million in equity incentive expenses.Bernstein's analysis suggests that this performance should reshape the market's perception of Figure, as it is not a traditional credit company, but rather a "tokenization-driven capital market platform," with core profits coming from network fees and operational leverage, and it maintains a pricing model based on a 25x EBITDA valuation for 2027. Additionally, the tokenization ecosystem continues to expand: the yield-bearing security token YLDS reached $598 million (up 80% quarter-on-quarter); the balance of stock lending products was $368 million (up 79%); and the small business loan segment contributed $6 million in revenue. Figure's current stock price is still not far from the 2025 IPO issue price of $36, but there remains a significant gap from the historical high of $78.

Bernstein stated that it maintains a target price of $190 for Circle (CRCL): Although the decline in interest rates led to a quarter-over-quarter drop in reserve income of 11%, Q1 revenue of $694 million was slightly below expectations, but adjusted EBITDA reached $151 million, exceeding consensus by about 10%. Analysts pointed out that Circle's $222 million ARC token presale, completed at a fully diluted valuation of $3 billion, along with robust growth in USDC supply reaching $77 billion (a year-on-year increase of 28%), provides a buffer for the company.According to Gate's market data, Circle's stock closed at $131.76 on Monday, with the target price implying about a 44% upside. Bernstein reiterated that the upcoming launch of the Arc Layer 1 mainnet, the expansion of the payment network, and its leading position in AI agent payments (x402 standard) will support the long-term growth of USDC and maintain the fiscal year 2026 guidance unchanged.

According to Jinshi reports, European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that the risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside.

According to Jinshi reports, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes show that all members believe the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that the current labor market faces downside risks, while inflation faces upside risks.

According to CoinDesk, analysts at brokerage firm Bernstein maintain an "outperform" rating on USDC issuer Circle's stock, with a target price of $190, representing about a 60% upside from the current level of $120.The report notes that the adoption of stablecoins is increasingly decoupling from the cryptocurrency market cycle. Despite the market being in a bear phase, the supply of USDC has rebounded to nearly a record $78 billion, and the total market capitalization of dollar-pegged stablecoins remains stable at around $270 billion. Adjusted stablecoin trading volume has increased by over 90% year-on-year, with trading turnover rising, indicating that stablecoins are being used more frequently in scenarios outside of cryptocurrency trading.Payment adoption is the main driver, as stablecoins are gradually being integrated into traditional card networks. Visa currently supports over 130 stablecoin-linked cards across more than 50 countries, with an annual settlement volume of approximately $4.6 billion. AI-driven "proxy finance" could become a new growth theme, as machine-to-machine micropayments between autonomous software agents will require stablecoins as a natural payment rail.

According to market news, Bitcoin's recovery today is closely related to a similar rebound in the U.S. stock market, with artificial intelligence and tech stocks leading the market higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index led the gains, rising by 1.05%, while the S&P 500 index increased by 0.68%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 421 points, closing up 0.86% on Tuesday. Analysts point out that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, as well as U.S. stocks, is currently at its lowest level since the FTX incident in 2022.Despite gold rising 51% over the past six months while Bitcoin has fallen 43%, on-chain data firms believe that this extreme divergence historically indicates significant upside potential. Additionally, the Coinbase premium index turned positive for the first time since January 15, accompanied by a net inflow of $258 million into spot ETFs on Tuesday, indicating that U.S. institutional buying is returning. QCP Capital founder Darius Sit stated that this divergence reflects changes in liquidity driven by position liquidations and leverage, rather than a failure of Bitcoin's long-term narrative.

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency economist Timothy Peterson's latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin still has structural upside potential during the current bear market correction: 50% of the months in the past 24 months recorded positive returns, suggesting a higher probability of a positive return turning point in any 24-month period.Based on this, Peterson estimates that the probability of Bitcoin being above the current level in the next 10 months is 88%. He emphasizes that this statistical model shows the market may be approaching a turning point rather than continuing to decline.The current Bitcoin price is approximately $68,173, down nearly 25% from the year's high, erasing most of the gains after the 2024-2025 U.S. elections; the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to "Extreme Fear" at 9 points, and social media interest in Bitcoin predictions has dried up, with sentiment trending neutral.

According to The Block, despite BitGo's stock price dropping on Tuesday, Mizuho Bank has given a positive outlook on the institutional-grade crypto custody platform in its first research report.Mizuho Bank analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins described BitGo as a "military-grade custodian," believing that its long-term security record and focus on institutional clients constitute a core advantage in the increasingly competitive custody market.The report noted that over 80% of BitGo's revenue comes from recurring businesses such as custody and staking, rather than volatile trading activities, which sets it apart among crypto infrastructure companies. The analysts assigned BitGo a "buy" rating with a target price of $17, implying nearly 70% upside from the current trading price of about $10.15.Mizuho Bank expects that as stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets drive institutional adoption, the company's revenue growth will accelerate. Nevertheless, BitGo's stock price has fallen about 44% since its NYSE debut at an issuance price of $18 in January, reflecting the overall cautious sentiment in the market towards crypto-related stocks.

According to The Block, Robinhood's stock price fell on Tuesday after the company reported a year-over-year decline in cryptocurrency business revenue for the fourth quarter. However, analysts from research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that this weakness reflects a temporary "crypto market tension" and reiterated their target price of $160.Robinhood's total revenue reached an all-time high, but cryptocurrency trading revenue fell 38% year-over-year to $221 million. Bernstein analysts noted that the revenue weakness due to decreased crypto trading activity was "expected" and stated that "there is no need to turn bearish when the stock price is approaching a cyclical low." Despite the "crypto market tension," several business metrics for the company remained "robust" in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Robinhood Banking, launched at the end of 2025, has attracted over 25,000 funded customers, with total account balances exceeding $400 million.Analysts pointed out that Robinhood's prediction market set a new record, accounting for about 14% of trading revenue and 8% of total revenue. The platform traded 8.5 billion contracts in the fourth quarter, far exceeding previous expectations. The report indicated that trading volume at the beginning of 2026 reached $4 billion, while the previously forecasted trading volume for 2026 was $27 billion.

According to market news, despite Galaxy Digital's stock price plummeting due to a $482 million loss in the fourth quarter, the market may be overlooking its potential in long-term catalysts such as AI data centers and U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory legislation.Galaxy's current stock price is around $21, and Benchmark maintains its "buy" rating with a target price of $57, anticipating a 170% upside. Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz stated during the earnings call that there is a 75%-80% probability of passing U.S. cryptocurrency market structure legislation, which could attract more institutional capital into the market. Additionally, the company plans to announce more institutional partnerships and infrastructure expansion plans in the coming quarters, including the expansion of on-chain credit markets.Benchmark also mentioned that Galaxy's Helios data center in Texas is an undervalued asset, with over 1.6 gigawatts of approved power capacity, and plans to start generating revenue this year through a leasing agreement with AI cloud service provider CoreWeave. Analysts believe that the valuation of the Helios data center alone could exceed Galaxy's current market value.Despite the decline in fourth-quarter performance, Galaxy's lending business continues to grow, with total loans reaching $1.8 billion, while the company has $2.6 billion in cash and stablecoin reserves, providing ample financial support for its expansion in cryptocurrency infrastructure and AI.

JPMorgan stated that investors should not sell gold. After Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to head the Federal Reserve, gold prices plummeted last Friday. They experienced significant volatility on Monday and rebounded slightly on Tuesday. JPMorgan believes this is merely a stumble on the way to higher year-end targets for gold prices.The investment bank updated its gold price target for 2026 to $6,300 per ounce, an increase of about 34% from the approximately $4,700 price on Monday evening. Given what happened last Friday, this forecast may seem overly optimistic, but the bank's Gregory Shearer insists that a rebound is imminent. However, according to Shearer, investors need not worry about further declines in gold prices. In the report, he emphasized that gold demand remains strong, exceeding his team's expectations.

VanEck's Head of Digital Asset Research, Matthew Sigel, stated in a post on X that VanEck will participate in BitGo's public offering. He believes that BitGo is one of the few publicly traded cryptocurrency-related companies that may see revenue growth exceeding 50% in the disappointing cryptocurrency market of 2025.At the same time, they expect BitGo's growth momentum to be less robust than Coinbase's, but revenue is still projected to grow by 26% by 2028. This could position the company to achieve over $400 million in revenue and over $120 million in EBITDA by 2028. Therefore, they estimate BitGo's fair market value at $2.4 billion (approximately $21 per share), which represents a 30% upside from the midpoint of the offering price range.In a more optimistic scenario, they believe BitGo's reasonable market value should exceed $3 billion, with a 12-month target price reaching $26.50 per share, about 65% higher than the midpoint of the price range.

Coinbase Institutional posted that after the December sell-off, there are signs of a reset in the cryptocurrency market: inflows into spot BTC and ETH ETFs; low leverage; balanced order books; options positions.The institution stated that systemic leverage has dropped to 3% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, while options skew indicates that demand for upward movement is increasing. With the recovery of liquidity after the holidays, early inflows suggest that institutional investors are cautiously re-taking on risk.

According to Jin Ten's report, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most participants believe there is greater uncertainty regarding the unemployment rate, with risks tilted to the upside.