indicators

According to Jinshi, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week, the month-on-month personal spending for June, the month-on-month and year-on-year core PCE price index, the preliminary quarter-on-quarter real personal consumption expenditure for the second quarter, the real GDP, and the preliminary quarter-on-quarter annualized core PCE price index will be announced in ten minutes.

According to the Q3 2026 signal report released by Fidelity Digital Assets, the prices of BTC, ETH, and SOL are generally at historical lows, with multiple indicators close to the capitulation zone. Fidelity believes that the current valuation levels may correspond to attractive long-term entry conditions.As of the end of Q2, the weighted net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) was -0.01, with BTC being the only asset with a positive unrealized profit, approximately 10% above its cost basis, with an unrealized profit of about $108 billion, while ETH and SOL were approximately 30% and 41% below their cost bases, with unrealized losses of about $87 billion and $29 billion, respectively. BTC's market share rose to 68% quarter-over-quarter.The report states that, based on historical backtesting, the current NUPL readings for the three correspond to one-year median returns of 53%, 70%, and 542%, respectively, but the reliability of the samples decreases sequentially. The NUPL reading for SOL has only occurred 21 times in history, concentrated at the end of 2025, which has limited statistical significance.On the fundamental side, the value of stablecoin transfers for both ETH and SOL has reached new highs, exceeding $20 trillion and $2.6 trillion, respectively, over the past 12 months, but network fee revenue continues to decline.Additionally, the report attributes the 22% decline in BTC hash rate from its peak to miners shifting their computing power towards AI and high-performance computing, as AI contract revenues are more stable due to the depressed coin prices.

According to Jinshi reports, Russian President Putin stated that based on macroeconomic indicators, the key interest rate should be lowered.

According to a post by Galaxy Research research director Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins), indicators related to long-term Bitcoin holders have set new historical records:The supply ratio of coins held for ≥ 10 years has reached 17.7%, the amount held by long-term holders is 16.75 million coins, the market value realized by long-term holders has reached 836.4 billion USD, and the average holding cost for long-term holders is 50,000 USD. The above data indicates that a large number of coins are firmly locked by long-term holders, who refuse to sell even though the average price has reached 50,000 USD. The actual circulating supply in the market continues to tighten, and the behavior of long-term holders is building a solid bottom support for Bitcoin prices.

According to a report by crypto.news, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the core reason for Bitcoin's recent decline is the "collapse of confidence triggered by Strategy." The issue lies not only in the price of Bitcoin itself but also in the growing concerns in the market regarding Strategy's financing model.As the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin globally, Strategy's stock and preferred securities have become key indicators for traders to measure Bitcoin market risk. Previously, the company's Bitcoin flywheel effect had come under pressure, with stock trading prices dipping below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, indicating that its long-reliant "premium stock issuance to repurchase Bitcoin" model is being challenged. Novogratz bluntly stated that STRC trading is weak, which should have been maintained around $100. Currently, Strategy's annual dividend obligation has risen to about $1.2 billion, and a decline in cash reserves has reduced the dividend coverage period to only about 14 months.Bitcoin is also facing pressure on a macro level. Novogratz summarized the current market logic as "a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin," with hawkish central bank signals and a strengthening dollar suppressing demand for risk assets. From a technical perspective, the $59,000 to $60,000 range for Bitcoin has become a critical defense line, and if it breaks down, the downward space could open up to $45,000.Novogratz also admitted that the current situation is complex, with a 50-50 probability of a rebound or a deep correction. Outflows from ETF funds, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market further confirm the fragile market sentiment. Now, the health of Strategy's balance sheet, the performance of STRC prices, and cash positions have evolved from being company-level issues to becoming confidence signals for the overall Bitcoin market.

Glassnode stated that the Altcoin Cycle Signal has re-entered the "Altcoin Season" range. Typically, Altcoin Season means that altcoins rise while Bitcoin remains strong, but this time the situation is different. After nearly two years of continuous selling, the selling pressure in the altcoin market is gradually diminishing, while Bitcoin has experienced a significant pullback. Currently, the return of this signal to the Altcoin Season range is primarily driven by Bitcoin's weakness, rather than a comprehensive strength in altcoins.

Analyst Gaah cited CryptoQuant data stating that the Bitcoin cycle momentum indicator shows that the current bear market has not yet ended. This indicator has not risen above the neutral zone (0), so the bear market continues. The indicator has reached the -30 point range, which historically is a deep area for forming cyclical bottoms. Historically, this range (-30) has constituted a major support level for BTC. However, to confirm a trend reversal, the price must form a bullish pattern while the indicator breaks through the neutral zone.

According to CoinGlass data, BTC is currently priced at $64,061.4, with a total spot trading volume of approximately $6.558 billion, of which Gate's trading volume is about $1.143 billion, ranking among the top three in the market.As for ETH, it is currently priced at $1,733.32, with a total spot trading volume of approximately $2.960 billion, of which Gate's trading volume is about $481 million, ranking among the top three in the entire network. Meanwhile, the total contract trading volume for ETH is approximately $51.467 billion, with Gate's trading volume at about $6.540 billion, ranking third. Despite the short-term market correction, Gate continues to maintain a leading position in trading depth and liquidity performance in the BTC and ETH spot and derivatives markets.

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl released a research report stating that, based on multiple on-chain valuation indicators, Bitcoin's current price is below its long-term average, indicating that it is undervalued, but the degree of undervaluation is not as significant as in previous cycle lows such as after the FTX collapse.

Glassnode data shows that as Bitcoin briefly fell to $61,300, the number of BTC in an unrealized loss state rose to approximately 10.5 million, surpassing the 9.8 million in a profit state for the first time, accounting for over half of the total circulating supply. This is the first occurrence in this cycle where the number of loss chips exceeds the number of profit chips. Historical data indicates that this metric has only appeared during deep bear market phases and has often corresponded with significant market bottoms. Similar situations occurred during the bear markets of 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022, although the duration varied from one month to a year.Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price touched approximately $61,300, which is the 200-week moving average, a level that has consistently formed key long-term support during past bear markets. Analysts believe that if BTC falls below the $60,000 threshold, the next important support level will be around the realized price of approximately $54,000, and Bitcoin has historically fallen below the realized price during major bear markets.

Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, posted on social media that the price of Bitcoin is the same now as it was two years ago, but one thing has changed. The "6 months to 2 years" holding group that entered during this cycle currently accounts for 53% of the realized market cap, while two years ago this proportion was only 15%. In the previous cycle, when this proportion reached 68%, Bitcoin bottomed out. Currently, short-term holders are gradually evolving into long-term holders.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Hamak stated that they are currently focusing on multiple inflation indicators to assess the economic situation and the direction of monetary policy adjustments.

Recently, funds have continuously flowed into the AI infrastructure sector, significantly increasing the trading activity of computing power and data center-related assets. According to Gate market data, NVIDIA (NVDAX) is currently priced at $216.60, up 0.25% in 24 hours; Marvell Technology (MRVL) is currently priced at $205.17, up 0.82% in 24 hours. According to CoinGlass data, the NVDAX contract position on the Gate platform reached $4.08 million, with a 24-hour trading volume of $2.46 million, both ranking first in the world; the MRVL contract position reached $1.46 million, ranking among the market leaders. Relevant data indicates that AI computing power and data center infrastructure-related assets remain an important direction for capital allocation.It is reported that Gate's stock trading service has officially launched, allowing users to directly trade over 10,000 mainstream U.S. stocks and ETFs using USDT, covering major U.S. securities trading markets and liquidity networks such as NYSE, Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, NYSE American, and BATS, providing users with a more comprehensive choice for global securities asset allocation and further bridging crypto assets with traditional financial markets. Based on a unified account system, users can achieve flexible allocation of digital assets and global securities assets on the same platform, enhancing cross-market investment efficiency.

Glassnode stated that Bitcoin has reclaimed the real market average at $78,300 but has failed to maintain a position above this level. Historical cycles suggest that several weeks to months of consolidation may be needed before confirming a credible bull market transition. The 30-day moving average has seen its risk-reward ratio rise from 0.4 in February to 1.8 during the rebound, indicating that demand is insufficient to absorb the wave of profit-taking. This indicator needs to remain above 2 to signal a true recovery of buyer strength.The 30-day cost baseline at $78,200 has shifted from a support level to an overhead resistance level, while the cost baseline of the accumulation group formed from February to April ($71,400) is currently the most direct support level in the ongoing pullback. The internal structure of the spot market has weakened in recent weeks, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) remaining negative overall, and Coinbase activity continues to lag. This indicates that while there is sporadic offshore speculative demand, the participation of U.S. institutions in the spot market remains relatively weak.CME futures open interest has continued to rise alongside prices, indicating that while overall spot demand remains hesitant near the current range highs, institutional participation in the derivatives market is improving. The accumulation rate of U.S. spot ETFs has recently slowed, further indicating that positions are increasingly driven by futures activity. Implied volatility is rebounding from low levels, primarily concentrated in short-term contracts, while long-term expectations remain stable. Realized volatility continues to decline, and the volatility risk premium has expanded, making the cost of hedging relatively manageable. Options positions remain defensive. The skew indicator shows a resurgence in demand for downside protection, while the negative gamma range around $75,000 makes spot prices susceptible to amplified hedging flows and increased price volatility.

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of about 2.5% since reaching a peak of $82,800, market analysts generally believe that its overall upward structure remains intact and has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" range. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock pointed out that Bitcoin has re-entered the price expansion range, the Bull Market Support Band has turned into support, and the 21-week EMA has crossed above the 20-week SMA, with the trend structure turning bullish again. Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $80,000, where the "real market average" and short-term holding costs constitute key support, while the realized price around $85,000 forms an upper pressure zone.Whale and institutional-led spot buying are strengthening, while the proportion of derivative speculation is decreasing. Similar structures historically correspond to sustainable upward trends. If this indicator continues to maintain positive values, it may further drive Bitcoin to continue its upward cycle. In terms of liquidity, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows to a key range, indicating that stablecoin funds are flowing back into the market. This signal has corresponded to phase bottom rebounds in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023. Meanwhile, the Binance stablecoin supply ratio oscillation indicator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, reaching a 12-month high, showing a significant increase in stablecoin purchasing power.On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume has increased by 116%, reaching 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses has increased by 7.1% to 707,700, and total transaction fees have grown by 37% to $279,300, indicating a significant increase in network usage activity. In terms of funding structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned into a sustained positive value, indicating that spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows that this indicator has further risen to $62 million compared to a week ago, reflecting an increase in market proactive buying sentiment.In summary, the price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin is currently still in a "strong trend expansion phase," and the bull market momentum has not yet ended.

CertiK and RootData announced a strategic partnership to jointly launch a dual benchmark brand program focused on security and transparency, aiming to make "security + transparency" a dual hard indicator of the trust system in the Web3 industry.It is reported that CertiK is a global leader in Web3 security services, and its Skynet platform conducts multidimensional security assessments of projects through a security scoring system; RootData is an industry-leading Web3 asset data platform that has innovatively constructed a transparency scoring model covering dimensions such as token economics, team background, and compliance audits.In this collaboration, CertiK will leverage RootData's standardized data interface to enrich the data dimensions and coverage of security ratings; RootData will rely on CertiK's professional security assessment capabilities to inject authoritative calibration basis into its transparency scoring. Both parties will jointly promote the "CertiK Skynet Score + RootData Transparency Score" dual assessment standard, providing a reliable reference benchmark that combines security and transparency for project parties, exchanges, investment institutions, and users.

Bitcoin fell below $76,000 after failing to break through $80,000, with uncertainties surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the macroeconomic situation unsettling the market.Meanwhile, technical indicators and on-chain data provide mixed signals regarding whether BTC can sustain this round of rebound. Bitcoin recorded a 30% recovery after hitting a low below $60,000 on February 6, but it stalled under selling pressure in the supply zone between $78,000 and $80,000. This range also coincides with the current 20-week exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the significance of this resistance level.Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, stated that the current pullback is "typical behavior" ahead of the FOMC meeting. He added, "I believe we are still in a phase of strong market conditions." On the support side, Bitcoin has tested the support level at $75,500, which also serves as the lower boundary of the 20-day EMA, 100-day EMA, and an upward channel.Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data shows that direct resistance is around $78,000, where investors hold 335,650 BTC; the average purchase price of about 298,560 BTC is $75,500, forming a key support level.On the on-chain front, Glassnode data indicates that the Bitcoin market exhibits "a coexistence of bullish momentum and cautious sentiment." The spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) rose from $18.3 million to $54.8 million, with an increase of nearly 200% over the past week, reflecting strong bullish sentiment among market participants. However, spot trading volume decreased by 13.8% from $6.95 billion a week ago to $5.99 billion, "indicating a reduction in market activity." During the same period, the number of daily active addresses fell by 1.6%, showing a more subdued network participation.

BIT tweeted that in the past two issues of the "Biton Target" report, we hinted that the bear market phase of Bitcoin may be nearing its end. Signals from multiple time dimensions are gradually forming resonance, supporting this judgment. When this judgment was made, Bitcoin was approaching the downward trend line formed since the bear market began in October 2025, just one step away from breaking upwards. Meanwhile, the weekly stochastic oscillator has fallen to a low not seen since January 2023, which was near the phase bottom after the end of the 2021/2022 bear market. Historically, this indicator reading often corresponds to market bottom areas.Our Bitcoin trend model has turned bullish. Trend signals do not always materialize, but considering that Bitcoin itself has strong trends and high volatility characteristics, after the previous two signals reversed quickly, the current round of movement has better conditions for continuation. Additionally, Bitcoin's price is gradually approaching the 21-week moving average, which has a critical boundary significance in our bull-bear judgment framework.$73,000 has always been an important watershed since March 2024 and is a key threshold for confirming whether this trend can reverse. Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $70,000. If it can effectively break through and stabilize above $73,000, the reversal signal will be further confirmed. Currently, various indicators are overall positive, but before the price enters this round's target range, the upward pace may still be disturbed by phase risk factors, so attention should be maintained.