indicator

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the recent rise in Bitcoin has pushed investor sentiment to its strongest level since March 2024. The market sentiment indicator he tracks once reached above 89/100, entering the "extreme greed" zone.This indicator combines several data points, including the Fear and Greed Index, with a range from -100 to +100, corresponding to extreme fear and extreme greed, respectively. Darkfost pointed out that when market sentiment is extremely optimistic or pessimistic, it often signals a potential turning point in trends.Currently, as the previous market frenzy gradually fades, the sentiment indicator is returning to more normal levels, while Bitcoin is still struggling to maintain its current price range.

CoinGecko stated in its latest RWA report that the pre-market for synthetic IPOs has begun to serve as an effective valuation indicator for traditional IPOs. On-chain perpetual contracts can provide continuous price discovery and market sentiment anchors for popular unlisted companies before the official opening of exchanges.The report uses SpaceX and Changxin Storage (CXMT) as examples, noting that before SpaceX's listing, the prices of perpetual contracts across platforms fluctuated between $158 and $170, gradually converging to around $157.40; when its first transaction price on Nasdaq landed at $150.05, the deviation was about 4.9%. The deviation between the perpetual contract price before CXMT's listing and the actual opening price was also about 4.6%.CoinGecko believes that in the absence of real spot stocks as immediate arbitrage anchors, traders will still form relatively concentrated quotes around valuation, listing popularity, and future liquidity. On-chain Pre-IPO perpetual contracts will thus become an important reference price before the traditional order book opens, providing global investors with a channel to express long and short expectations 24 hours a day.

CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto stated that the Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSR Oscillator) 90-day reading quickly rose to the "strong stablecoin buying demand" zone, reaching 3.74 on August 21, close to the peak of about 4 expected in November 2024. Since then, the indicator has started to decline, while BTC is currently trading around $77,000.The rapid rebound of the stablecoin demand indicator coincided with a strong liquidity pulse that occurred earlier in the market. However, what is more concerning now is not the short-term spike itself, but whether this demand signal can be sustained. If the 90-day SSR Oscillator continues to decline and falls back below the "high" zone, the confirmation strength of this indicator regarding the sustained increase in stablecoin buying demand will weaken. Currently, this change appears more like a liquidity pulse rather than a formed persistent demand expansion cycle.The demand signals from the stablecoin side have indeed strengthened significantly recently, but the 90-day oscillation indicator has already started to cool down from its peak of 3.74. If it cannot maintain itself in the "high" zone, then whether this liquidity improvement can evolve into more lasting demand growth remains in question.

According to CoinDesk, the "credit pulse" indicator, which measures the speed of new credit in China relative to GDP changes, is flashing red. The Bloomberg China Credit Pulse Index recently reported 20.84 points, the lowest level since 2008. This indicator was proposed by economist Michael Biggs in 2008 and is considered related to the global manufacturing cycle, leading S&P 500 returns by about 12 months.Albert Edwards, a strategist at Société Générale, warned that ignoring China's recent monetary tightening could become "the biggest investment mistake of the decade." Despite the weakening indicators, Bitcoin surged 25% in August and briefly broke through $80,000, mainly driven by inflows from U.S. spot ETFs, short covering, and a catch-up rally of previously lagging assets compared to the stock market.Looking ahead, there are two scenarios: one is that Bitcoin continues to rise, as current crypto trading is primarily driven by U.S. institutional funds, reducing sensitivity to signals from China's credit conditions; the other is that if U.S. stocks decline as Edwards predicts, risk aversion may spill over into Bitcoin. Which scenario will materialize remains to be seen.

The "Realized Cap Impulse" indicator for Bitcoin has recently ended a continuous 93-day negative state and has turned positive for the first time, marking the longest reversal signal after a capital contraction cycle since the bear market of 2022.This indicator measures the momentum of changes in the realized market capitalization by tracking the changes in realized cap, combined with factors of Bitcoin supply and price, to assess whether the flow of tokens with actual economic significance in the market is driving capital base expansion. The positive shift in the indicator does not merely reflect a price increase but indicates that the flow of funds within the Bitcoin network is changing.Data shows that the indicator broke above the zero axis on August 20 when the BTC price was around $73,000 and has maintained positive values for 8 consecutive days. Currently, the BTC price has risen to about $78,900, an increase of approximately 8% during this period.As of the latest, the indicator reading is 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on August 26. Historical data indicates that similar signals at the end of bear markets have been accompanied by significant rebounds in Bitcoin: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% within a year; after March 2019, it increased about 173% in 90 days; and after January 2023, it rose about 45% in 90 days, with a yearly increase of 104%.However, the realized cap momentum indicator is not an absolute signal of a cycle bottom. Similar positive shifts occurred in early 2018 and 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained upward phase afterward. Analysts believe that the indicator's continued positive value, confirmed by price trends, is more valuable than a single-day breakthrough above the zero axis.

The one-stop AI infrastructure platform B.AI has set new operational data records: yesterday's single-day computing power throughput exceeded 456.94 billion tokens, with 7,913 new registered users and 7,402 API users, all three metrics breaking historical records.This achievement fully validates the exceptional stability of the B.AI platform architecture under ultra-high concurrency and heavy load, and demonstrates that its inclusive computing vision is accelerating the attraction of global developers to access production-level AI agents and automated workflows at extremely low costs. B.AI will continue to optimize its one-stop AGI infrastructure, lower the threshold for AI applications, and drive cutting-edge intelligence efficiently into real productivity.

According to Blockworks data, Hyperliquid Builder Codes reached a nominal trading volume of approximately $989.4 million on August 21, setting a new historical high. Among this, perpetual contracts accounted for about $983.9 million, spot trading for about $5.408 million, and the result market for about $66,000. On the same day, the number of traders was approximately 39,982, and Builder revenue totaled about $781,600, also reaching a recent high.In terms of revenue contribution, MetaMask contributed about $142,600, Phantom about $114,300, Trust Wallet about $86,900, followed closely by Invo, Based, fomo, and others.

Cryptoquant analyst CW8900 stated that the BTC inter-exchange flow pulse (IFP) indicator has shown a bullish signal, indicating that the inflow of BTC into derivative exchanges is increasing, and leveraged investments are becoming active again.This signal suggests that the upward pressure on derivative exchanges is rising, driven by leverage, and the rebound is resuming after the prolonged adjustment phase that has been ongoing since July.

21Shares posted on platform X that the Bitcoin seller exhaustion indicator is currently about 0.007, which is in the lowest 0.3% range of all readings since 2010. This indicator has only reached such a low level 11 times in history, and in all previous cases, the price increased one year later, with a median increase of 155%.The institution pointed out that this is not necessarily a bottom judgment, as past cases have indeed shown some short-term declines before the final turnaround.

According to CoinDesk, the latest report from asset management company VanEck shows that Bitcoin has currently triggered 8 out of 12 market capitulation indicators, indicating that the market is approaching the historical bear market bottom area, but the related signals do not mean that the price has bottomed out. These indicators mainly measure the market status of Bitcoin during extreme sell-off phases, including the extent of price retracement from highs, miner profitability, and the proportion of holders at a loss. Over the past three months, all 12 indicators have reached the triggering range.VanEck pointed out that Bitcoin's previous rounds of major bottoms experienced maximum declines of approximately 94%, 85%, 84%, and 78%, during which the market lacked support from spot ETF funds, institutional holdings were relatively small, and there were impacts from major industry events such as Celsius and FTX. In contrast, the market structure has changed this time. From a cyclical perspective, VanEck has compiled 4 complete Bitcoin cycles since 2011 and found that bear markets typically last about 11 months on average from peak to trough; if excluding the special cycle of 2011, the average is about 12.7 months. Currently, Bitcoin has entered the 10th month since its peak in October 2025, and the next potential accumulation window may appear between September and November of this year.VanEck concluded that the current capitulation indicators are more suitable as tools for long-term investors to assess the cycle position rather than short-term bottom-fishing signals. Historical data shows that the advantages of investing based on these indicators are mainly reflected within a one-year cycle, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the coming months.

The Central Bank of Russia has released a regulatory draft proposing to include digital currencies in the asset scope for calculating capital adequacy ratios and other prudential regulatory indicators for professional participants in the financial market, applicable to institutions such as brokers, asset management companies, forex traders, and cryptocurrency exchanges.The draft stipulates that relevant institutions may only include cryptocurrencies approved for circulation on exchanges when calculating their own funds, with their value not exceeding 25% of the total assets included in the calculation, and they must be registered and held by a crypto custody institution. The Central Bank of Russia stated that this move aims to incorporate the risks of crypto assets into capital regulation and enhance the financial stability of financial intermediaries.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ai posted on the X platform that multiple technical indicators at the monthly level for Bitcoin are releasing bullish signals, suggesting that the current market may have formed a macro bottom. Data shows that the TD Sequential indicator triggered a buy signal on the Bitcoin monthly chart last month. This indicator previously successfully identified the bottom of the bear market in 2022 and is now showing a similar signal again. Additionally, Bitcoin's current price is close to the 50-month simple moving average (SMA). Historical data indicates that since 2014, this long-term moving average has repeatedly become an important support area for Bitcoin and corresponds with multiple market bottoms.Meanwhile, the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) has fallen back to around -71. The last time this indicator reached a similar level was in June of this year, when Bitcoin's price briefly dropped to $57,000. Historically, extreme low levels of CMO often coincide with market bottom areas. Analysts believe that Bitcoin may still oscillate in the range of $60,000 to $67,000 in the short term, but the TD Sequential buy signal, 50-month moving average support, and CMO oversold condition together indicate that a long-term cycle bottom may have formed. The market will focus on whether subsequent prices can break through the oscillation range to confirm a new upward trend.

CoinGlass's latest data shows that BTC is currently priced at $63,129.2, with a 24-hour decline of 0.43%. The total spot trading volume across the network is approximately $1.838 billion. Among them, Gate's BTC spot trading volume is about $212 million, ranking third in the network.As for ETH, it is currently priced at $1,863.23, with a 24-hour decline of 0.66%. The total spot trading volume across the network is approximately $763 million. Among them, Gate's ETH spot trading volume is about $105 million, also ranking third in the network. Meanwhile, the total contract trading volume for ETH across the network is approximately $24.138 billion, with Gate's ETH contract trading volume at about $2.228 billion, similarly ranking third in the network.From the latest trading distribution, the price adjustments for BTC and ETH within the day are relatively limited, and the trading heat of mainstream assets remains concentrated on leading platforms. Gate ranks in the top three for BTC spot, ETH spot, and ETH contract in three core trading indicators, indicating that its liquidity and trading activity in mainstream cryptocurrency trading remain at a high level.

According to Jinshi, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week, the month-on-month personal spending for June, the month-on-month and year-on-year core PCE price index, the preliminary quarter-on-quarter real personal consumption expenditure for the second quarter, the real GDP, and the preliminary quarter-on-quarter annualized core PCE price index will be announced in ten minutes.

According to the Q3 2026 signal report released by Fidelity Digital Assets, the prices of BTC, ETH, and SOL are generally at historical lows, with multiple indicators close to the capitulation zone. Fidelity believes that the current valuation levels may correspond to attractive long-term entry conditions.As of the end of Q2, the weighted net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) was -0.01, with BTC being the only asset with a positive unrealized profit, approximately 10% above its cost basis, with an unrealized profit of about $108 billion, while ETH and SOL were approximately 30% and 41% below their cost bases, with unrealized losses of about $87 billion and $29 billion, respectively. BTC's market share rose to 68% quarter-over-quarter.The report states that, based on historical backtesting, the current NUPL readings for the three correspond to one-year median returns of 53%, 70%, and 542%, respectively, but the reliability of the samples decreases sequentially. The NUPL reading for SOL has only occurred 21 times in history, concentrated at the end of 2025, which has limited statistical significance.On the fundamental side, the value of stablecoin transfers for both ETH and SOL has reached new highs, exceeding $20 trillion and $2.6 trillion, respectively, over the past 12 months, but network fee revenue continues to decline.Additionally, the report attributes the 22% decline in BTC hash rate from its peak to miners shifting their computing power towards AI and high-performance computing, as AI contract revenues are more stable due to the depressed coin prices.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin market sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish and has maintained this for the second week. A model that integrates multiple market data points shows that the Bitcoin status score has rebounded from a low of -42.9 on June 26 to +34.7. Over the past week, this score has remained in positive territory for more than 80% of the time, reaching a peak of +65.3 on July 10, indicating that the overall market sentiment has shifted from seller-dominated to buyer-strong.Currently, 79.4% of the multiple sub-indicators included in the model point in the same direction, significantly higher than this month's average of 57.3%, suggesting that there are no obvious contradictions among the data, and the current bullish signal is not noise. Moving forward, if the market sentiment score further rises above +50 and the consistency remains above 80%, the bullish trend will be further confirmed; if the score continues to fall below zero and consistency drops below 40%, the current trend will be considered invalid.

According to Jinshi reports, Russian President Putin stated that based on macroeconomic indicators, the key interest rate should be lowered.

According to a post by Galaxy Research research director Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins), indicators related to long-term Bitcoin holders have set new historical records:The supply ratio of coins held for ≥ 10 years has reached 17.7%, the amount held by long-term holders is 16.75 million coins, the market value realized by long-term holders has reached 836.4 billion USD, and the average holding cost for long-term holders is 50,000 USD. The above data indicates that a large number of coins are firmly locked by long-term holders, who refuse to sell even though the average price has reached 50,000 USD. The actual circulating supply in the market continues to tighten, and the behavior of long-term holders is building a solid bottom support for Bitcoin prices.