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According to Jinshi, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week, the month-on-month personal spending for June, the month-on-month and year-on-year core PCE price index, the preliminary quarter-on-quarter real personal consumption expenditure for the second quarter, the real GDP, and the preliminary quarter-on-quarter annualized core PCE price index will be announced in ten minutes.

According to the Q3 2026 signal report released by Fidelity Digital Assets, the prices of BTC, ETH, and SOL are generally at historical lows, with multiple indicators close to the capitulation zone. Fidelity believes that the current valuation levels may correspond to attractive long-term entry conditions.As of the end of Q2, the weighted net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) was -0.01, with BTC being the only asset with a positive unrealized profit, approximately 10% above its cost basis, with an unrealized profit of about $108 billion, while ETH and SOL were approximately 30% and 41% below their cost bases, with unrealized losses of about $87 billion and $29 billion, respectively. BTC's market share rose to 68% quarter-over-quarter.The report states that, based on historical backtesting, the current NUPL readings for the three correspond to one-year median returns of 53%, 70%, and 542%, respectively, but the reliability of the samples decreases sequentially. The NUPL reading for SOL has only occurred 21 times in history, concentrated at the end of 2025, which has limited statistical significance.On the fundamental side, the value of stablecoin transfers for both ETH and SOL has reached new highs, exceeding $20 trillion and $2.6 trillion, respectively, over the past 12 months, but network fee revenue continues to decline.Additionally, the report attributes the 22% decline in BTC hash rate from its peak to miners shifting their computing power towards AI and high-performance computing, as AI contract revenues are more stable due to the depressed coin prices.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin market sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish and has maintained this for the second week. A model that integrates multiple market data points shows that the Bitcoin status score has rebounded from a low of -42.9 on June 26 to +34.7. Over the past week, this score has remained in positive territory for more than 80% of the time, reaching a peak of +65.3 on July 10, indicating that the overall market sentiment has shifted from seller-dominated to buyer-strong.Currently, 79.4% of the multiple sub-indicators included in the model point in the same direction, significantly higher than this month's average of 57.3%, suggesting that there are no obvious contradictions among the data, and the current bullish signal is not noise. Moving forward, if the market sentiment score further rises above +50 and the consistency remains above 80%, the bullish trend will be further confirmed; if the score continues to fall below zero and consistency drops below 40%, the current trend will be considered invalid.

According to Jinshi reports, Russian President Putin stated that based on macroeconomic indicators, the key interest rate should be lowered.

According to a post by Galaxy Research research director Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins), indicators related to long-term Bitcoin holders have set new historical records:The supply ratio of coins held for ≥ 10 years has reached 17.7%, the amount held by long-term holders is 16.75 million coins, the market value realized by long-term holders has reached 836.4 billion USD, and the average holding cost for long-term holders is 50,000 USD. The above data indicates that a large number of coins are firmly locked by long-term holders, who refuse to sell even though the average price has reached 50,000 USD. The actual circulating supply in the market continues to tighten, and the behavior of long-term holders is building a solid bottom support for Bitcoin prices.

According to the analyst thechessONCHAIN on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently 0.158, with its 100-day exponential moving average at 0.215 and the 30-day exponential moving average at 0.155.On June 2, the 30-day moving average has crossed below the 100-day moving average, indicating a weakening market momentum, but both are currently still above the zero axis.

According to a report by crypto.news, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the core reason for Bitcoin's recent decline is the "collapse of confidence triggered by Strategy." The issue lies not only in the price of Bitcoin itself but also in the growing concerns in the market regarding Strategy's financing model.As the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin globally, Strategy's stock and preferred securities have become key indicators for traders to measure Bitcoin market risk. Previously, the company's Bitcoin flywheel effect had come under pressure, with stock trading prices dipping below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, indicating that its long-reliant "premium stock issuance to repurchase Bitcoin" model is being challenged. Novogratz bluntly stated that STRC trading is weak, which should have been maintained around $100. Currently, Strategy's annual dividend obligation has risen to about $1.2 billion, and a decline in cash reserves has reduced the dividend coverage period to only about 14 months.Bitcoin is also facing pressure on a macro level. Novogratz summarized the current market logic as "a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin," with hawkish central bank signals and a strengthening dollar suppressing demand for risk assets. From a technical perspective, the $59,000 to $60,000 range for Bitcoin has become a critical defense line, and if it breaks down, the downward space could open up to $45,000.Novogratz also admitted that the current situation is complex, with a 50-50 probability of a rebound or a deep correction. Outflows from ETF funds, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market further confirm the fragile market sentiment. Now, the health of Strategy's balance sheet, the performance of STRC prices, and cash positions have evolved from being company-level issues to becoming confidence signals for the overall Bitcoin market.

According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin unspent transaction output (UTXO) data shows that the proportion of loss transactions to profit transactions in the current market has dropped to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear "surrender" phase.This indicator has previously triggered multiple times at historical cycle bottom areas. The last similar low occurred during the mid-2023 deep phase of the bear market, when the Bitcoin price briefly fell to around $26,000. Analysts believe that such phases usually correspond to extremely low market sentiment, with long-term investors gradually starting to accumulate again.Darkfost pointed out that this is the first time this signal has been triggered since the start of the current correction, indicating that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss is significantly increasing, reflecting a broader sell-off and surrender behavior that has begun. He also added that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders' Bitcoin is gradually entering negative territory.

With the current price of Bitcoin at $59,291 and a 200-day dollar-cost averaging (C200) of $75,821, the Bitcoin Ahr999 "bottom-fishing" indicator is currently at 0.285. The previous low this year was 0.27 on February 6.According to statistics, an Ahr999 below 0.3 is a rare case of extreme undervaluation, mainly occurring during significant market crashes or moments of panic. Historically, there have been the following major instances of falling below 0.3:In November 2011, when the price of Bitcoin was only in single digits and had not yet reached widespread consensus;The bottom of the bear market in 2018 (lowest around 0.24);The "March 16 flash crash" in 2020 (COVID panic);In June 2022, during the ETH liquidation crash and the FTX crash in November, it touched around 0.27 multiple times;In February 2026, it reached 0.27-0.29, close to historical lows.It is reported that this indicator assists Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging users in making investment decisions in conjunction with timing strategies. This indicator implies the short-term yield of Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging and the deviation of Bitcoin prices from expected valuations. Historically, the Ahr999 index has been below the bottom line (0.45) for 655 days.

Glassnode stated that the Altcoin Cycle Signal has re-entered the "Altcoin Season" range. Typically, Altcoin Season means that altcoins rise while Bitcoin remains strong, but this time the situation is different. After nearly two years of continuous selling, the selling pressure in the altcoin market is gradually diminishing, while Bitcoin has experienced a significant pullback. Currently, the return of this signal to the Altcoin Season range is primarily driven by Bitcoin's weakness, rather than a comprehensive strength in altcoins.

Analyst Gaah cited CryptoQuant data stating that the Bitcoin cycle momentum indicator shows that the current bear market has not yet ended. This indicator has not risen above the neutral zone (0), so the bear market continues. The indicator has reached the -30 point range, which historically is a deep area for forming cyclical bottoms. Historically, this range (-30) has constituted a major support level for BTC. However, to confirm a trend reversal, the price must form a bullish pattern while the indicator breaks through the neutral zone.

Crypto analyst Lark Davis pointed out that the current reading of the Bitcoin Puell Multiple indicator shows that the market is nearing or is in the bottom area of this cycle. This indicator measures miners' profitability by tracking the ratio of daily miner revenue to the 365-day average. Historically, when miner income remains low and they are forced to sell BTC to cover operating costs, it often corresponds to cycle lows.Davis stated that although the indicator has not yet reached the green oversold zone, signals of pressure on miners have already appeared, which historically usually marks the beginning of the end of a bear market. He also noted that the price signals in this cycle are overall milder compared to historical patterns. Davis believes that whether $59,000 can hold as the low point of this cycle will be revealed in the coming months, but current signs are becoming clearer.

According to CoinGlass data, BTC is currently priced at $64,061.4, with a total spot trading volume of approximately $6.558 billion, of which Gate's trading volume is about $1.143 billion, ranking among the top three in the market.As for ETH, it is currently priced at $1,733.32, with a total spot trading volume of approximately $2.960 billion, of which Gate's trading volume is about $481 million, ranking among the top three in the entire network. Meanwhile, the total contract trading volume for ETH is approximately $51.467 billion, with Gate's trading volume at about $6.540 billion, ranking third. Despite the short-term market correction, Gate continues to maintain a leading position in trading depth and liquidity performance in the BTC and ETH spot and derivatives markets.

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl released a research report stating that, based on multiple on-chain valuation indicators, Bitcoin's current price is below its long-term average, indicating that it is undervalued, but the degree of undervaluation is not as significant as in previous cycle lows such as after the FTX collapse.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin has been in a state of realized net loss for 22 consecutive days, meaning that trades where the selling price is lower than the buying price continue to dominate, and holders are closing positions at a loss. The MVRV Z-Score indicator has dropped to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that valuations have significantly cooled, with premiums almost completely washed away, and the market is no longer expensive.If this indicator falls below zero, it will enter a deeply undervalued and capitulation zone; if it rises above the historical average, it will signal a valuation recovery. The lowest point of realized net loss occurred on June 6, reaching $1.2 billion, and has now narrowed to about $1.1 billion, roughly half of the extreme capitulation value of $2.2 billion in 2022. Analysts point out that market pressure is evident, but valuations have reset, and the valuation discount itself is a positive signal. The trigger for improvement is when realized net profit and loss return to zero and above, and MVRV Z remains positive; the main risk is that losses deepen again to the extreme levels of 2022 and MVRV Z falls below zero.

Glassnode data shows that as Bitcoin briefly fell to $61,300, the number of BTC in an unrealized loss state rose to approximately 10.5 million, surpassing the 9.8 million in a profit state for the first time, accounting for over half of the total circulating supply. This is the first occurrence in this cycle where the number of loss chips exceeds the number of profit chips. Historical data indicates that this metric has only appeared during deep bear market phases and has often corresponded with significant market bottoms. Similar situations occurred during the bear markets of 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022, although the duration varied from one month to a year.Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price touched approximately $61,300, which is the 200-week moving average, a level that has consistently formed key long-term support during past bear markets. Analysts believe that if BTC falls below the $60,000 threshold, the next important support level will be around the realized price of approximately $54,000, and Bitcoin has historically fallen below the realized price during major bear markets.

Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, posted on social media that the price of Bitcoin is the same now as it was two years ago, but one thing has changed. The "6 months to 2 years" holding group that entered during this cycle currently accounts for 53% of the realized market cap, while two years ago this proportion was only 15%. In the previous cycle, when this proportion reached 68%, Bitcoin bottomed out. Currently, short-term holders are gradually evolving into long-term holders.

According to analyst Adler's latest post, the Bitcoin Impulse indicator, which reflects Bitcoin price momentum, has dropped to -59, indicating that market momentum has quickly turned negative; meanwhile, the 30-day Net Taker Volume Position Change indicator, which measures changes in active buying and selling power, has also fallen below the zero axis for the first time in nearly three months, suggesting that the active buying demand that drove the previous upward trend has basically been exhausted.Momentum indicators typically lead changes in capital flow. Currently, both the fast and slow momentum indicators are in deep negative territory, with the fast momentum close to -90 and the slow momentum quickly dropping to -59 after falling below the zero axis at the end of May. On the other hand, although the 30-day active buying demand indicator has just turned negative, it has not yet entered the "bear market zone."Adler believes that the current market is transitioning from a "buyer-dominated" phase to a "seller-dominated" phase, with an overall risk-off state. If active buying demand further declines and enters the bear market zone, while momentum continues to remain negative, it will further confirm the market's bearish trend; conversely, if active buying returns above the zero axis, it may provide an opportunity for market rebound.